Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Saturday, 24 January

Union Berlin will host Borussia Dortmund at the Alte Försterei this Saturday, 24 January, in a highly anticipated Bundesliga clash. As both teams vie for crucial points, this match promises to be a significant encounter in the league standings. Union Berlin, known for their solid home performances, will be looking to take advantage of their home ground against a formidable Borussia Dortmund side.

Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, will aim to capitalise on their attacking prowess to secure a vital away victory. With both teams harbouring strong ambitions in the Bundesliga, this fixture could have substantial implications for their respective campaigns. Fans and bettors alike will be keen to see how these two teams match up in what is expected to be an exciting contest at the Alte Försterei.

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
More than 2.5 goals in 1st half	8

Given Dortmund’s tendency to concede goals despite being favourites, and Union Berlin’s aggressive starts at home, we expect a high-scoring first half. Betting on over 2.5 goals in the first half appears to be a solid choice.

• Union Berlin have scored in nine consecutive matches, showing their capacity to find the net early.
• 78% of the past nine matches between these teams have seen over 2.5 goals.
• Both teams are known for their aggressive and fast-paced starts, making early goals highly likely.

Betting Odds

Union Berlin host Borussia Dortmund at the Alte Försterei, and the betting odds suggest a fascinating Bundesliga clash. Dortmund are the favourites with odds of 2.04, but Union Berlin, priced at 3.59, have shown they can spring a surprise on home soil.

Betting Tip	Odds
Union Berlin to win	3.59
Draw	3.41
Borussia Dortmund to win	2.04

The draw at 3.41 also presents a tempting option for those expecting a closely fought encounter. With both teams known for their attacking prowess, punters might find value in the over 2.5 goals market.

Union Berlin Analysis & Recent Performance

Union Berlin’s recent form has been mixed, with their last five Bundesliga matches resulting in two wins and three draws, highlighting their resilience but also a struggle to secure decisive victories. Their latest outing was a 1-1 draw against VfB Stuttgart, where they managed 43% possession and recorded 14 shots, indicating a proactive approach despite not dominating possession.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	League	Date
VfB Stuttgart	Union Berlin	1 – 1 (Draw)	Bundesliga	18 Jan 2026
Augsburg	Union Berlin	1 – 1 (Draw)	Bundesliga	15 Jan 2026
Union Berlin	Mainz 05	2 – 2 (Draw)	Bundesliga	10 Jan 2026
Erzgebirge Aue	Union Berlin	1 – 2 (Win)	Friendly	5 Jan 2026
FC Köln	Union Berlin	0 – 1 (Win)	Bundesliga	20 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
Union Berlin’s attack has shown consistency, scoring in all of their last five league matches, with an average of 1.60 goals per game. However, their defence has been less robust, conceding an average of 1.00 goals per match, with only one clean sheet in this period. At home, their form wavers, capturing only one win in their last five home games.

In terms of league standing, Union Berlin are currently positioned 9th with 24 points. Despite their mid-table position, they have demonstrated a competitive edge, particularly with key player Ilyas Ansah contributing five goals this season. Their ability to find the net regularly is a strength, yet defensive lapses and an inability to close out games with a higher win ratio remain areas for improvement.

• DDDWW

Union Berlin Suspensions & Injuries

Union Berlin face a challenging situation with several key players unavailable due to injuries and suspensions. The absence of Derrick Köhn, who is serving a suspension following a red card, is a significant blow, particularly in defence, where his presence has been vital. His suspension means that Union Berlin will need to rely on other defensive options to fill the gap, potentially shifting tactical responsibilities to players like Danilho Doekhi and Diogo Leite, both of whom are expected to step up in his absence.

Player	Suspension	Matches Remaining	Expected Return
Derrick Köhn	Sent off	1	Unknown

The injury list is equally concerning for Union Berlin, with Robert Skov sidelined due to a calf injury until late January. Additionally, the physical discomfort affecting Tom Rothe, along with the unknown injury status of Tim Skarke and Dmytro Bogdanov’s knock, further complicates the squad selection. These absences might force coach Steffen Baumgart to consider alternative tactical setups, possibly adjusting the midfield dynamics to compensate for the lack of depth.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Robert Skov	Calf Injury	Late January 2026
Tom Rothe	Physical Discomfort	About a week
Tim Skarke	Unknown	About a week
Dmytro Bogdanov	Knock	About a week

Overall, these absences could significantly impact Union Berlin’s performance, affecting their defensive solidity and midfield creativity. Bettors might find value in considering these unavailabilities, as they could sway the match’s outcome, especially against a formidable opponent like Borussia Dortmund.

Union Berlin Key Players

Union Berlin’s offensive strategy will prominently feature Ilyas Ansah, their top scorer with five goals this season. Ansah’s knack for finding the back of the net makes him a pivotal figure in their attack, and his ability to exploit defensive gaps will be crucial against Borussia Dortmund. In the forward position, Andrej Ilić is expected to complement Ansah’s efforts, providing additional attacking prowess.

The midfield will rely heavily on the experience of Rani Khedira, whose role as a playmaker is indispensable in orchestrating Union Berlin’s game plan. His ability to control the tempo and distribute the ball effectively will be vital. Janik Haberer and András Schäfer are also key in the midfield, providing both defensive support and creative options going forward.

Expected lineup for Union Berlin

• Goalkeeper: Frederik Rønnow
• Defence: Danilho Doekhi, Leopold Querfeld, Diogo Leite
• Midfield: Janik Haberer, Rani Khedira, András Schäfer, Josip Juranović, Livan Burcu, Aljoscha Kemlein
• Forward: Andrej Ilić

In defence, the trio of Danilho Doekhi, Leopold Querfeld, and Diogo Leite will be tasked with maintaining a solid backline. Doekhi’s leadership and Querfeld’s tackling abilities are particularly crucial in keeping Dortmund’s forwards at bay. Overall, Union Berlin’s tactical approach will hinge on a balanced mix of offensive pressure and defensive resilience, leveraging their key players’ strengths to secure a positive result.

Union Berlin Tactics and Formation

Union Berlin Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Andrej Ilić
• Midfield Pivot: Rani Khedira and Janik Haberer
• Defensive Line: Danilho Doekhi, Leopold Querfeld, Diogo Leite
• Notable Strategy: Strong defensive structure but vulnerability on the flanks.

Union Berlin’s 3-4-2-1 formation allows for a solid defensive setup with three central defenders—Danilho Doekhi, Leopold Querfeld, and Diogo Leite—providing a robust backline. This formation is designed to absorb pressure and rely on quick transitions to catch opponents off guard.

In midfield, the pairing of Rani Khedira and Janik Haberer is crucial for maintaining balance. They are tasked with breaking up opposition play and initiating counter-attacks. Josip Juranović and Livan Burcu provide width, but their advanced positions can leave the team susceptible to counter-attacks.

Offensively, Andrej Ilić leads the line, supported by the creative efforts of Aljoscha Kemlein and András Schäfer. Despite their recent draw against VfB Stuttgart, Union Berlin’s ability to maintain defensive discipline has been key, although they have managed only one clean sheet in their last five matches.

Borussia Dortmund Analysis & Recent Performance

Borussia Dortmund enter this fixture with a solid run of form in the Bundesliga, having secured three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. The team have demonstrated attacking prowess, averaging 2.20 goals per game, while defensively they have conceded an average of 1.40 goals. Their last outing saw them narrowly defeat St. Pauli 3-2, showcasing their ability to edge out tight contests.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Tottenham	Borussia Dortmund	2 – 0 (Defeat)	Champions League	20 Jan 2026
Borussia Dortmund	St. Pauli	3 – 2 (Victory)	Bundesliga	17 Jan 2026
Borussia Dortmund	Werder Bremen	3 – 0 (Victory)	Bundesliga	13 Jan 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt	Borussia Dortmund	3 – 3 (Draw)	Bundesliga	9 Jan 2026
Borussia Dortmund	Borussia Mönchengladbach	2 – 0 (Victory)	Bundesliga	19 Dec 2025

Recent Form:

• LWWDW

On the road, Dortmund have been resilient, managing to stay unbeaten in four of their last five away games. With an away win ratio of 0.40, they have shown a tendency to draw, as seen in their three recent away stalemates. Defensively, they’ve kept two clean sheets in their last five matches, highlighting an area of improvement, particularly following their 2-0 loss against Tottenham in the Champions League. Dortmund’s second-place standing in the Bundesliga with 39 points reflects their competitive edge, driven by key performances from top scorer Serhou Guirassy, who has netted six goals this season.

Borussia Dortmund Suspensions & Injuries

Marcel Sabitzer’s absence due to a calf injury will be felt in Borussia Dortmund’s midfield. With Sabitzer expected to return by mid-February 2026, Dortmund will need to manage without his creative influence for this match against Union Berlin. His role in orchestrating play and providing defensive cover in midfield is crucial, and his unavailability might necessitate a shift in their tactical approach.

The impact of Sabitzer’s injury on Dortmund’s tactical setup could lead to a more conservative approach, with Julian Ryerson and Felix Nmecha expected to shoulder additional responsibilities in midfield. Both players will need to step up to fill the gap, offering stability and creativity in the centre of the park. This adjustment may also see Jobe Bellingham taking on a more advanced role to maintain the attacking impetus.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Marcel Sabitzer	Calf Injury	Mid February 2026

Sabitzer’s injury might also influence betting markets, as his absence could be seen as a weakening of Dortmund’s midfield strength. However, with a strong lineup still available, including players like Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi, Dortmund remain a formidable side. The team’s depth will be tested, but their ability to adapt could still make them favourites for a positive outcome.

Borussia Dortmund Key Players

Borussia Dortmund’s attacking prowess is significantly bolstered by their top scorer, Serhou Guirassy, who has already netted six goals this season. Guirassy’s clinical finishing and ability to find space in the box make him a constant threat to any defence. His partnership with Fábio Silva, expected to lead the line, can be particularly dangerous if they manage to exploit Union Berlin’s defensive weaknesses. Silva’s agility and sharp movement complement Guirassy’s goal-scoring instincts perfectly.

Julian Brandt, operating from midfield, is another critical component of Dortmund’s strategy. His vision and creativity enable him to orchestrate play and provide key passes that can unlock defences. Alongside him, Jobe Bellingham and Felix Nmecha are expected to provide both defensive solidity and attacking support, making their midfield presence crucial for controlling the game. In defence, Emre Can and Nico Schlotterbeck will be vital in maintaining a robust backline, with Gregor Kobel’s goalkeeping skills providing the last line of defence.

Expected lineup for Borussia Dortmund:

• Goalkeeper: Gregor Kobel
• Defence: Emre Can, Waldemar Anton, Nico Schlotterbeck
• Midfield: Julian Ryerson, Jobe Bellingham, Felix Nmecha, Daniel Svensson, Karim Adeyemi, Julian Brandt
• Forward: Fábio Silva

Borussia Dortmund Tactics and Formation

Borussia Dortmund Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Fábio Silva
• Midfield Core: Jobe Bellingham and Felix Nmecha
• Defensive Line: Emre Can, Waldemar Anton, Nico Schlotterbeck
• Recent Form: Mixed results with only one clean sheet in last five matches.

Dortmund’s 3-4-2-1 formation under Niko Kovač offers flexibility in both attack and defence. The defensive trio of Emre Can, Waldemar Anton, and Nico Schlotterbeck are tasked with maintaining a solid backline, which has been tested in recent performances, notably conceding twice against Tottenham.

In midfield, Jobe Bellingham and Felix Nmecha play pivotal roles, combining defensive responsibilities with creative distribution, supported by wing-backs Julian Ryerson and Daniel Svensson who provide width. The presence of Karim Adeyemi and Julian Brandt in advanced positions offers significant attacking threat.

Offensively, Fábio Silva is expected to lead the line, adding a new dimension to Dortmund’s attack in the absence of Serhou Guirassy. This tactical setup aims to exploit quick transitions, although the lack of clean sheets indicates areas needing improvement defensively.

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head Record

Looking at the head-to-head record, Borussia Dortmund have dominated Union Berlin with 12 wins out of 16 encounters, while Union have managed just four victories and there have been two draws. The last meeting ended in a comfortable 3-0 win for Dortmund at home in the Bundesliga.

When Union Berlin hosted Dortmund last, they pulled off an impressive 2-1 victory back in October 2024. However, Dortmund’s overall head-to-head dominance, coupled with their strong away form, suggests they could be a tough nut to crack again.

Home Side	Away Side	Score	League	Date
Borussia Dortmund	Union Berlin	3 – 0	Bundesliga	2025-08-31
Borussia Dortmund	Union Berlin	6 – 0	Bundesliga	2025-02-22
Union Berlin	Borussia Dortmund	2 – 1	Bundesliga	2024-10-05
Union Berlin	Borussia Dortmund	0 – 2	Bundesliga	2024-03-02
Borussia Dortmund	Union Berlin	4 – 2	Bundesliga	2023-10-07