Fiorentina vs Cagliari Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 24 January

Fiorentina will host Cagliari at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence on Saturday, 24 January, in what promises to be an intriguing Serie A contest. Playing on home soil, Fiorentina will look to make the most of their familiarity with the venue and secure a vital victory. Meanwhile, Cagliari will aim to upset the hosts and collect valuable points in the league standings. This match is significant as both teams are eager to improve their positions in Serie A, making it a compelling watch for fans and punters alike.

The Stadio Artemio Franchi, renowned for its vibrant atmosphere, will set the scene for this encounter. Fiorentina’s recent home form could play a pivotal role, but Cagliari have demonstrated resilience on the road. As we delve into the prediction, match preview, and betting tips, it is clear that both teams possess strengths and weaknesses that could influence the outcome. Bettors will be keen to analyse the teams’ performances and statistics to make informed decisions for this Serie A fixture.

Fiorentina vs Cagliari Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
More than 1.5 goals in the second half	2.23

Fiorentina are favourites to win this match, and with good reason. Their strong home form, combined with Cagliari’s defensive vulnerabilities, makes backing Fiorentina a solid choice. Additionally, matches between these sides often see goals from both teams, making ‘Both teams to score’ a viable option.

• Fiorentina have scored in 80% of their home matches this season, demonstrating their attacking prowess.
• Cagliari concede an average of 1.4 goals per game, highlighting their defensive issues.
• Historical data shows these teams tend to produce matches with over 1.5 goals, backing the likelihood of an entertaining game.

Betting Odds

Fiorentina are the clear favourites heading into this Serie A clash against Cagliari, with the home side’s odds set at 1.63. Cagliari, on the other hand, are considered underdogs at 5.49, reflecting their struggles away from home this season.

Betting Tip	Odds
Fiorentina to win	1.63
Draw	3.79
Cagliari to win	5.49

The draw is priced at 3.79, which may appeal to those expecting a tighter contest. Given Fiorentina’s strong home form, punters might also consider betting markets for a home win with a clean sheet or over 2.5 goals.

Fiorentina Analysis & Recent Performance

Fiorentina’s recent form has been a blend of resilience and inconsistency, with their last five Serie A matches yielding two wins, two draws, and one defeat. Their most recent outing saw them secure a 2-1 victory away at Bologna, demonstrating their ability to grind out results even without dominating possession, as shown by their 39% possession rate in that match.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Bologna	Fiorentina	1 – 2 (Win)	Serie A	18 Jan 2026
Fiorentina	AC Milan	1 – 1 (Draw)	Serie A	11 Jan 2026
Lazio	Fiorentina	2 – 2 (Draw)	Serie A	7 Jan 2026
Fiorentina	Cremonese	1 – 0 (Win)	Serie A	4 Jan 2026
Parma Calcio 1913	Fiorentina	1 – 0 (Loss)	Serie A	27 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
Across their last ten matches, Fiorentina have managed four victories, with a win ratio of 40%. They have found the net consistently, averaging 1.50 goals per game while conceding 1.30 on average. These statistics highlight a competent attack, though their defence has been less reliable, keeping only one clean sheet in the same period. Fiorentina’s home form shows a slight improvement, with three wins out of ten, but they have struggled to maintain consistency at the Stadio Artemio Franchi.

Performance Statistics:

• WDDWL

The team has scored in eight of their last ten matches, with a both-teams-to-score rate of 70%, underlining their offensive capabilities. However, the defence has been breached in nine of those games, indicating a need for greater defensive cohesion. Currently positioned 17th in the league, Fiorentina’s season has been challenging, but recent performances hint at potential improvement if they can stabilise their backline while maintaining attacking impetus led by top scorer Rolando Mandragora.

Fiorentina Suspensions & Injuries

Fiorentina face some important absences due to injuries, which could significantly impact their tactical approach against Cagliari. Tariq Lamptey remains sidelined with a knee injury, and his dynamic presence on the flank will be missed. The status of Edin Džeko and Moise Kean is also uncertain, with both doubtful due to fitness concerns and a muscle injury respectively, limiting Fiorentina’s attacking options. The absence of these players may force the team to rely heavily on their current forward line of Luca Ranieri, Roberto Piccoli, and Albert Guðmundsson for attacking creativity.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Tariq Lamptey	Knee injury	Unknown
Edin Džeko	Fitness issue	Doubtful
Moise Kean	Muscle injury	Doubtful

In the absence of Edin Džeko and Moise Kean, Fiorentina may need to adjust their tactical approach. This could mean a greater emphasis on midfield play, with Rolando Mandragora and Nicolò Fagioli taking on more creative responsibilities. The experience of Robin Gosens in defence will be crucial in maintaining balance and supporting transitions.

With these injuries, Fiorentina’s betting odds might shift slightly, particularly if the fitness of key players remains uncertain closer to match day. However, the core squad remains intact, which may still favour them in the match against Cagliari, albeit with potential adjustments to their attacking strategy.

Fiorentina Key Players

Fiorentina’s attacking threat will be led by their top scorer, Rolando Mandragora, who has already netted six goals this season. Operating from midfield, Mandragora’s ability to arrive late in the box and finish clinically will be pivotal against Cagliari. His playmaking is complemented by Nicolò Fagioli, whose vision and passing range can unlock defences. In the forward line, Albert Guðmundsson’s pace and dribbling make him a constant threat on the wing, providing crucial support to the central attackers. Defensively, Robin Gosens’ leadership will be vital, with his experience and tactical awareness helping to organise the backline.

Expected lineup for Fiorentina:

• Goalkeeper: David de Gea
• Defence: Dodo, Pietro Comuzzo, Robin Gosens, Marin Pongračić
• Midfield: Rolando Mandragora, Cher Ndour, Nicolò Fagioli
• Forward: Luca Ranieri, Roberto Piccoli, Albert Guðmundsson

With these key players, Fiorentina are likely to adopt a balanced tactical approach, leveraging their midfield strength to control the match and create scoring opportunities. The combination of Mandragora’s scoring ability and Fagioli’s creativity could be decisive, while Gosens’ defensive solidity provides the foundation for the team to push forward. A potential weakness, however, could be the reliance on Mandragora for goals, which might make the team predictable if Cagliari manage to neutralise his threat.

Fiorentina Tactics and Formation

Fiorentina Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Roberto Piccoli
• Midfield Engine: Rolando Mandragora
• Defensive Resilience: One clean sheet in recent matches
• Notable Strategy: High pressing and exploiting width with full-backs

Fiorentina’s 4-3-3 formation is structured to maximise their attacking potential while maintaining defensive solidity. The midfield trio, led by Rolando Mandragora, provides the necessary balance between defence and attack, with Mandragora’s vision and passing pivotal in transitioning play.

The forward line, spearheaded by Roberto Piccoli, will look to exploit any defensive lapses. Despite the absence of Fabiano Parisi, Luca Ranieri’s inclusion in attack suggests a focus on aerial threats and physical presence in the final third.

Defensively, the back four of Dodo, Pietro Comuzzo, Robin Gosens, and Marin Pongračić offer both experience and youthful energy. Fiorentina’s strategy often involves high pressing and quick transitions, aiming to recover possession high up the pitch and utilise the width provided by their full-backs.

Cagliari Analysis & Recent Performance

Cagliari’s recent form has shown a blend of resilience and inconsistency. In their last five matches, they have managed two wins, including a notable 1-0 victory over Juventus, while also suffering two defeats, notably a heavy 0-3 loss to Genoa. This pattern reveals a tendency for fluctuating performances, which sees them currently positioned 15th in Serie A with 22 points.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Cagliari	Juventus	1 – 0 (Win)	Serie A	17 Jan 2026
Genoa	Cagliari	3 – 0 (Loss)	Serie A	12 Jan 2026
Cremonese	Cagliari	2 – 2 (Draw)	Serie A	8 Jan 2026
Cagliari	AC Milan	0 – 1 (Loss)	Serie A	2 Jan 2026
Torino	Cagliari	1 – 2 (Win)	Serie A	27 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
Offensively, Cagliari have been somewhat subdued, averaging 1.00 goals across their last five matches and scoring in only three of these games. Defensively, they have conceded an average of 1.40 goals per match over the same span, highlighting vulnerabilities at the back with just one clean sheet. Away from home, their performance dips further, with a win ratio of only 20% in their last five away matches, underlining their struggles on the road.

Tactically, Cagliari rely heavily on key player Gennaro Borrelli, their top scorer with three goals this season, yet their attacking output remains limited. Their defensive setup has been severely tested, as seen in the match against Juventus where they conceded 20 shots. This suggests a need for tighter defensive cohesion and more effective possession to mitigate high-pressure situations.

• WLDLW

Cagliari Suspensions & Injuries

Cagliari face several injury concerns as they head into their clash with Fiorentina. The absence of Andrea Belotti due to a cruciate ligament injury is a significant blow, as he is a key player whose presence is sorely missed in attack. His absence until early April 2026 forces Cagliari to place more responsibility on Semih Kılıçsoy and Sebastiano Esposito to lead the line.

Midfield depth is also a concern with Michael Folorunsho and Alessandro Deiola sidelined until early February 2026. This limits Cagliari’s options in midfield, potentially affecting their ability to control the game and transition effectively. Michel Ndary Adopo and Luca Mazzitelli will need to step up to fill these gaps, providing both defensive cover and creative spark.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Andrea Belotti	Cruciate ligament injury	Early April 2026
Mattia Felici	Cruciate ligament injury	Out for the season
Michael Folorunsho	Leg injury	Early February 2026
Alessandro Deiola	Thigh injury	Early February 2026

The unavailability of these players may compel coach Fabio Pisacane to adjust his tactics. We may see a more conservative approach, focusing on defensive solidity to compensate for the lack of attacking options. This could influence betting markets, as a low-scoring affair may be more likely given Cagliari’s current squad limitations.

Cagliari Key Players

Cagliari’s top scorer, Gennaro Borrelli, will be pivotal in their attack against Fiorentina. With three goals to his name this season, Borrelli’s ability to find the back of the net could prove crucial, especially against a solid defence. His strength and positioning in the forward line enable him to exploit any defensive gaps, creating scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates.

In midfield, Gianluca Gaetano and Luca Mazzitelli are expected to play significant roles. Gaetano’s vision and passing can unlock defences, while Mazzitelli’s box-to-box abilities provide both defensive cover and attacking support. At the back, Yerry Mina’s presence will be critical for organising the defence and dealing with aerial threats, using his experience and physicality to keep the opposition at bay.

Expected lineup for Cagliari:

• Goalkeeper: Elia Caprile
• Defence: Sebastiano Luperto, Yerry Mina, Ze Pedro
• Midfield: Marco Palestra, Michel Ndary Adopo, Gianluca Gaetano, Luca Mazzitelli, Adam Obert
• Forward: Semih Kılıçsoy, Sebastiano Esposito

Cagliari Tactics and Formation

Cagliari Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-5-2
• Key Forward: Sebastiano Esposito
• Midfield Engine: Gianluca Gaetano
• Defensive Concerns: Conceded seven goals in the last five matches
• Notable Strategy: Compact defensive shape with an emphasis on counter-attacks.

Cagliari’s 3-5-2 formation aims to balance defensive solidity with attacking potential. The three central defenders, Sebastiano Luperto, Yerry Mina, and Ze Pedro, are tasked with maintaining a compact shape, crucial for absorbing pressure and launching counter-attacks.

In midfield, Gianluca Gaetano orchestrates play, supported by Michel Ndary Adopo and Luca Mazzitelli. The wing-backs, Marco Palestra and Adam Obert, are essential for providing width and supporting transitions from defence to attack.

Offensively, the duo of Semih Kılıçsoy and Sebastiano Esposito spearhead the attack, relying on quick transitions. However, Cagliari’s defensive vulnerabilities are evident, having conceded seven goals in their last five games, indicating a need for improved defensive coordination to achieve more clean sheets.

Fiorentina vs Cagliari Head-to-Head Record

Fiorentina and Cagliari have faced off 42 times, with Fiorentina leading the head-to-head record with 22 wins compared to Cagliari’s 10, and 10 matches ending in a draw. Their last encounter in August 2025 ended in a 1-1 draw at Cagliari’s ground in Serie A.

The last time these two met at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in December 2024, Fiorentina secured a narrow 1-0 victory. Historically, Fiorentina have been dominant at home against Cagliari, often keeping clean sheets and scoring freely.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Cagliari	Fiorentina	1 – 1	Serie A	2025-08-24
Cagliari	Fiorentina	1 – 2	Serie A	2025-04-23
Fiorentina	Cagliari	1 – 0	Serie A	2024-12-08
Cagliari	Fiorentina	2 – 3	Serie A	2024-05-23
Fiorentina	Cagliari	3 – 0	Serie A	2023-10-02