Portsmouth vs. Derby Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 12 April 2025 - bettingexpert
This Championship clash at Fratton Park on 12 April 2025, with kick-off at 15:00, features Portsmouth taking on Derby County. Portsmouth (17th, 45 points) will be looking to take advantage of their home ground against a struggling Derby County (21st, 42 points). Both teams are eager to climb away from the relegation zone as the season nears its end.
Portsmouth’s recent form has been less than stellar with just one win in their last five games (LLLWW). On the other hand, Derby has had a mixed bag of results (LDWWW) but has shown better defensive solidity with three clean sheets in their last five outings. Callum Lang remains Portsmouth’s top scorer with 10 goals this season but will miss the match due to injury, placing the attacking onus on Colby Bishop.
Our match prediction sees this as a tightly contested encounter, with the recommended bet being a draw. Portsmouth will hope to capitalize on Derby’s vulnerabilities on the road, while Derby will aim to leverage their recent resilience in defense. Make sure to keep an eye on Jerry Yates, Derby’s top scorer with 8 goals, who could be influential in this match.
Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction & Betting tip
| Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Draw | 3.02 |
- Evenly Matched: Both teams are close in the standings, with Portsmouth at 17th and Derby at 21st. Their recent form and point tally suggest a tight contest.
- Recent Results: Derby has been solid defensively with three clean sheets in their last five games, while Portsmouth’s form has been inconsistent.
- Historical Context: More than 2.5 goals have been scored in 71% of the seven matches between these teams in the past five seasons, indicating competitive encounters.
Given the circumstances, a draw is a sensible bet in this closely-fought matchup.
Portsmouth vs Derby Odds
| Portsmouth vs Derby Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| Portsmouth | 2.27 |
| Draw | 3.02 |
| Derby | 3.37 |
- Bookmaker Favorite: Portsmouth goes into this match as the bookmaker’s favorite with odds of 2.27 for a home win.
- Competitive Draw Odds: The odds for a draw are 3.02, indicating a balanced contest.
- Value on the Away Side: Derby’s odds of 3.37 provide good value for those who believe in an away upset.
These odds reflect Portsmouth’s slight edge but also acknowledge Derby’s recent solid form and defensive strength.
Portsmouth Team Analysis
Portsmouth Recent Performance
Portsmouth’s recent form has been a bit of a rollercoaster, with their last five games reflecting a mixture of losses and wins. Here’s a breakdown:
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | Portsmouth | 2025-04-09 | Championship | 1-0 (Loss) |
| Millwall | Portsmouth | 2025-04-05 | Championship | 2-1 (Loss) |
| Portsmouth | Blackburn | 2025-03-29 | Championship | 1-0 (Win) |
| Preston | Portsmouth | 2025-03-15 | Championship | 2-1 (Loss) |
| Portsmouth | Plymouth | 2025-03-12 | Championship | 1-2 (Loss) |
Recent Form: LLLWW
Portsmouth have averaged 0.80 goals per game in their last five matches and have kept just one clean sheet during this stretch.
Portsmouth Recent Performance
Despite being the bookmaker’s favorite, their relatively low goal-scoring average and inconsistent form make this a tightly contested fixture. They will need to capitalize on their home advantage to push further up the table.
Portsmouth Key Players
Portsmouth will rely heavily on their key players to take the game to Derby County. Unfortunately, they will be without their top scorer Callum Lang, who is out for the season with a hamstring injury. However, significant responsibility will fall on experienced forward Colby Bishop, who is expected to lead the line.
Midfield dynamo Andre Dozzell will be another crucial player, tasked with dictating the tempo in the middle of the park. The attacking thrust from Joshua Murphy and the creativity of Terry Devlin could also play pivotal roles in breaking down Derby’s defense.
Expected lineup for Portsmouth:
- Goalkeeper: Nicolas Schmid
- Defenders: Jordan Williams, Regan Poole, Connor Ogilvie, Cohen Bramall
- Midfielders: Freddie Potts, Andre Dozzell, Matt Ritchie, Terry Devlin, Joshua Murphy
- Forward: Colby Bishop
Portsmouth Suspensions & Injuries
Portsmouth is significantly impacted by injuries going into this match.
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Ibane Bowat | Tendon injury | Out for the season |
| Jacob Farrell | Knee surgery | Early May 2025 |
| Paddy Lane | Knee injury | Late April 2025 |
| Conor Shaughnessy | Hamstring injury | Late April 2025 |
| Callum Lang | Hamstring injury | Out for the season |
| Rob Atkinson | Calf injury | About a week |
| Hayden Matthews | Ankle injury | Out for the season |
| Zak Swanson | Heel injury | Mid May 2025 |
With key players such as top scorer Callum Lang out for the season, Portsmouth will need to find alternative sources of goals. Defenders like Regan Poole and Connor Ogilvie will also need to step up, considering the injuries across the squad. This could strain John Mousinho’s tactical options as he tries to guide his team to a vital win.
Portsmouth Tactics and Formation
Portsmouth Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 4-2-3-1
- Key Forward: Colby Bishop
- Midfield Trio: Freddie Potts, Andre Dozzell, Terry Devlin
- Defensive Line: Jordan Williams, Regan Poole, Connor Ogilvie, Cohen Bramall
- Goalkeeper: Nicolas Schmid
John Mousinho’s squad will line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, aiming to solidify their midfield with Potts and Dozzell providing defensive cover. Freddie Potts and Andre Dozzell will anchor the midfield while Terry Devlin supports the attack. Given their recent form, expect Portsmouth to leverage Colby Bishop’s striking capabilities while relying on their back four and goalkeeper Nicolas Schmid to withstand Derby’s attacking threats. While injuries have affected their lineup, the defensive cohesion could be crucial in securing a result.
Their notable strategy tends to focus on organized defensive setups and quick transitions into attacking phases, particularly emphasizing maintaining structure to counter Derby’s forwards.
Derby Team Analysis
Derby Recent Performance LDWWW
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | Burnley | 2025-04-08 | Championship | 0-0 (Draw) |
| Swansea | Derby | 2025-04-05 | Championship | 1-0 (Loss) |
| Derby | Preston | 2025-04-02 | Championship | 2-0 (Win) |
| Plymouth | Derby | 2025-03-15 | Championship | 2-3 (Win) |
| Derby | Coventry | 2025-03-11 | Championship | 2-0 (Win) |
Recent Form: LDWWW
Derby’s recent performance has been relatively strong, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. They’ve managed to keep three clean sheets in these games, showcasing their defensive stability.
The team, coached by John Eustace, has averaged 1.40 goals per match in their recent fixtures, indicating a decent attacking form. Despite their position at the lower end of the table, Derby has shown resilience, proven by their impressive wins against Preston and Plymouth.
Their average goals scored, combined with their recent form, suggest that they could pose a significant challenge for Portsmouth at Fratton Park.
Derby Key Players
Derby’s key players will play a pivotal role in their effort to climb out of the relegation zone. With Jerry Yates leading the attack, having scored 8 goals this season, he remains a consistent threat in front of goal. The striking partnership with Marcus Harness, who combines speed and skill, is crucial.
Midfield dynamo Harrison Armstrong will anchor the central play, hoping to control the tempo and create opportunities. Ebou Adams and Liam Thompson also provide midfield stability and creativity, crucial for Derby’s 3-5-2 formation.
Expected lineup for Derby:
- Goalkeeper: Jacob Widell Zetterström
- Defenders: Kane Wilson, Erik Pieters, Nathaniel Phillips, Matt Clarke, Craig Forsyth
- Midfielders: Ebou Adams, Harrison Armstrong, Liam Thompson
- Attackers: Marcus Harness, Jerry Yates
Key individual battles to watch include Yates against Portsmouth’s Regan Poole and Adams facing Portsmouth’s Freddie Potts in midfield.
Derby Suspensions & Injuries
Derby County is dealing with a substantial injury list that could significantly impact their lineup and performance. Here’s a look at the current injuries:
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Curtis Nelson | Cruciate ligament injury | Early October 2025 |
| Dajaune Brown | Hamstring injury | Late May 2025 |
| Corey Blackett-Taylor | Hamstring injury | Mid May 2025 |
| David Ozoh | Thigh injury | Out for season |
| Ben Osborn | Hamstring injury | Early May 2025 |
| Kemar Roofe | Hamstring injury | Mid April 2025 |
| Lars-Jørgen Salvesen | Knee surgery | Late July 2025 |
| Ryan Nyambe | Hamstring injury | Early May 2025 |
| Sondre Langås | Muscle injury | Late April 2025 |
| Callum Elder | Knock injury | A few days |
Derby has no suspended players.
These injuries disrupt key areas in their formation and limit the options available to coach John Eustace. The absences, particularly in defense and midfield, might force the team to adopt a more conservative approach to plug the gaps.
Derby Tactics and Formation
Derby County’s Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-5-2
- Key Forwards: Jerry Yates and Marcus Harness
- Midfield Trio: Ebou Adams, Harrison Armstrong, Liam Thompson
- Defensive Strength: Three clean sheets in the last five games
- Notable Strategy: Scoring most of their goals in the 46-60 minute interval
Derby County, under coach John Eustace, tends to rely on a robust midfield supported by a three-man defense. This setup allows them to transition swiftly from defense to attack, with wingers like Kane Wilson and Craig Forsyth providing width. With a tendency to concede 1.3 goals on average, they’re focused on tightening their defense, heavily impacted by injuries. The forwards, Yates and Harness, are expected to spearhead the counter-attacks.
Portsmouth vs Derby County Head-to-Head Statistics
| Portsmouth | Derby County | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County | Portsmouth | 2024-12-13 | Championship | 4-0 (Loss) |
| Portsmouth | Derby County | 2024-04-02 | League One | 2-2 (Draw) |
| Derby County | Portsmouth | 2023-09-16 | League One | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Derby County | Portsmouth | 2023-04-29 | League One | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Portsmouth | Derby County | 2022-11-18 | League One | 0-0 (Draw) |
In the last five meetings, Portsmouth has struggled against Derby County.
Derby County has managed to keep Portsmouth at bay, especially with their big win last December.
Both teams have been involved in a series of draws, suggesting a closely contested affair is on the cards.
Odds accurate as of 04.10.2025 15:01, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.
