Southampton vs Millwall Prediction & Match Preview (1 January 2026)

Southampton vs Millwall Prediction & Match Preview for 1 January 2026. As the new year begins, Southampton host Millwall at St. Mary’s Stadium in a Championship clash that promises intrigue. This fixture is significant, with both sides aiming to strengthen their positions in the league table. Playing at home, Southampton will look to make the most of their familiarity with the venue to secure a crucial victory.

Millwall, meanwhile, will be determined to challenge the hosts and earn valuable points on the road. Both teams have demonstrated competitive spirit this season, making this encounter a must-watch for fans and bettors alike. With the Championship as unpredictable as ever, this match could influence the promotion race, adding extra excitement to the contest.

Southampton vs Millwall Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Southampton to Win	1.76

Given the current form and historical performance, our recommended betting tip is to back a Southampton win. This is supported by Southampton’s strong home record and Millwall’s struggles, particularly with their lengthy injury list and recent poor away performances.

• Southampton are unbeaten in their last five home matches in this competition, underlining their home advantage.
• Millwall have just one win in their last five games, highlighting their difficulties on the road.
• Southampton have scored first in 80% of their recent meetings with Millwall, showing their tendency to start strongly.

Betting Odds

Southampton enter this fixture at St. Mary’s Stadium as favourites, with odds of 1.76 reflecting their superior form. Millwall, on the other hand, are considered underdogs at 4.24, but they have shown the ability to spring surprises with gritty performances.

Betting Tip	Odds
Southampton to win	1.76
Draw	3.75
Millwall to win	4.24

The draw is priced at 3.75, which may appeal to those expecting a closely contested Championship encounter. With both teams eager to prove themselves, punters should also consider the over 2.5 goals market, especially given Southampton’s attacking strength at home.

Southampton Analysis & Recent Performance

Southampton’s recent form has been mixed, with just one win from their last five matches. Their recent results include a hard-fought 3-2 victory over West Bromwich, but disappointing defeats to Oxford (2-1) and Norwich (2-1).

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Birmingham	Southampton	1 – 1 (Draw)	Championship	29 Dec 2025
Oxford	Southampton	2 – 1 (Loss)	Championship	26 Dec 2025
Southampton	Coventry	1 – 1 (Draw)	Championship	20 Dec 2025
Norwich	Southampton	2 – 1 (Loss)	Championship	13 Dec 2025
Southampton	West Bromwich	3 – 2 (Win)	Championship	9 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
Southampton have averaged 1.40 goals scored per match in their last five games, conceding 1.60 goals per game. They have struggled defensively, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of these fixtures. However, they have shown attacking persistence by scoring in every match.

At home, Southampton have been relatively strong, with a win ratio of 0.80 in their last five home games—four wins and one draw. Their away form has been less convincing, contributing to their current 13th place in the Championship with 32 points.

Adam Armstrong remains a key figure in attack, having scored 11 goals this season. Southampton’s consistent goal-scoring and solid home record could prove vital as they look to climb the table.

• DLDLW

Southampton Suspensions & Injuries

Southampton are contending with several key injuries ahead of this match. Samuel Edozie and Ross Stewart are both sidelined with hamstring injuries, with Edozie expected back in early January 2026 and Stewart not due to return until early February. This limits Southampton’s attacking options and may require tactical adjustments. Injuries to Shea Charles and Mads Roerslev also test the squad’s defensive and midfield depth, potentially leading to a more conservative approach against Millwall.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Samuel Edozie	Hamstring Injury	Early January 2026
Ross Stewart	Hamstring Injury	Early February 2026
Shea Charles	Hamstring Injury	Mid January 2026
Mads Roerslev	Knee Injury	Mid January 2026
Damion Downs	Knock	Doubtful

With these absences, Southampton will need Adam Armstrong and Flynn Downes to step up. Armstrong, who led the line in the previous match, will shoulder the goal-scoring responsibility, while Downes may be asked to play a more versatile role in midfield. The lack of depth could prompt coach Tonda Eckert to consider alternative formations or promote youth players.

These enforced changes could affect the betting markets, as Southampton’s reduced attacking threat and possible defensive frailties may make for a more balanced contest against Millwall. Bettors might consider the likelihood of a low-scoring game given Southampton’s current squad constraints.

Southampton Key Players

Adam Armstrong is Southampton’s leading scorer, with an impressive 11 goals this season. His sharp movement and ability to find space in the penalty area make him a constant threat. Armstrong’s finishing and presence as the lone striker underline his importance in leading the line against Millwall.

In midfield, Flynn Downes and Ryan Manning are key to Southampton’s tactical approach. Downes offers stability and ball-winning ability, while Manning adds creativity and delivers accurate crosses. Together, they help control the game’s tempo and link defence to attack. In defence, Taylor Harwood-Bellis is crucial, known for his composure and aerial strength—vital for maintaining a solid backline.

Expected lineup for Southampton

• Goalkeeper: Gavin Bazunu
• Defence: Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Nathan Wood, Jack Stephens
• Midfield: Tom Fellows, Flynn Downes, Caspar Jander, Ryan Manning, Finn Azaz, Leo Scienza
• Forward: Adam Armstrong

The strengths of these players suggest a tactical focus on possession and quick transitions. Southampton’s reliance on Armstrong’s goal-scoring, combined with a dominant midfield and resolute defence, will be central to their hopes of victory at St. Mary’s.

Southampton Tactics & Formation

Southampton Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Expected 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Adam Armstrong
• Midfield Core: Flynn Downes, Caspar Jander, Finn Azaz
• Defensive Concern: No clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: High possession with a focus on midfield control.

Southampton are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation, aiming to maximise their possession-based style. The midfield trio of Flynn Downes, Caspar Jander, and Finn Azaz will look to control the tempo and facilitate transitions from defence to attack.

Defensively, the backline of Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Nathan Wood, and Jack Stephens has struggled to keep clean sheets, conceding in each of the last five matches. This may prompt a more cautious approach against Millwall, with an emphasis on reducing errors at the back.

In attack, Adam Armstrong is the focal point, having scored 11 goals this season. The team often relies on his finishing, with wingers like Ryan Manning and Tom Fellows providing width and creativity.

Millwall Analysis & Recent Performance

Millwall’s recent form has been inconsistent, with just one win in their last five matches. A notable 2-1 victory over Bristol City demonstrated their ability to secure points, but they have struggled for momentum, as seen in a 0-0 draw with Ipswich and losses to Blackburn (2-0) and Hull (3-1).

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Millwall	Bristol City	2 – 1 (Win)	Championship	29 Dec 2025
Millwall	Ipswich	0 – 0 (Draw)	Championship	26 Dec 2025
Blackburn	Millwall	2 – 0 (Loss)	Championship	20 Dec 2025
Millwall	Hull	1 – 3 (Loss)	Championship	13 Dec 2025
Derby	Millwall	1 – 1 (Draw)	Championship	10 Dec 2025

Recent Form:

• WDLLD

In their last five games, Millwall have averaged 0.80 goals scored per match while conceding 1.40, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. They have kept just one clean sheet in this period, indicating a need for better defensive organisation. Away from home, Millwall have only one win in their last five matches—a 20% win ratio—suggesting difficulties adapting to away fixtures. They currently sit 5th in the Championship with 39 points.

Millwall Suspensions & Injuries

Millwall face a significant injury list ahead of their trip to Southampton, which could affect their tactical approach. Key players Will Smallbone and Derek Mazou-Sacko are both out with hamstring and knee injuries respectively, expected to return in early January. Their absence may force coach Alex Neil to rely on less experienced midfielders.

The situation is further complicated by injuries to Josh Coburn and Benicio Baker, both important for Millwall’s transitions. Coburn’s hip injury and Baker’s groin issue could disrupt the team’s usual tempo, potentially shifting betting markets in Southampton’s favour.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Lukas Jensen	Achilles tendon injury	Mid January 2026
Benicio Baker	Groin injury	Early January 2026
Massimo Luongo	Cruciate ligament injury	Early July 2026
Josh Coburn	Hip injury	Early January 2026
Will Smallbone	Hamstring injury	Early January 2026
Derek Mazou-Sacko	Knee injury	Early January 2026
Luke Cundle	Shoulder injury	Early February 2026
Casper de Norre	Calf injury	Early January 2026
Daniel Kelly	Hamstring injury	Mid January 2026

With these absences, players like Alfie Doughty and Billy Mitchell may need to take on greater responsibility, stepping into more central roles to cover defensive and midfield gaps. This could result in a more conservative formation, focusing on possession and counter-attacks.

Lukas Jensen’s Achilles tendon injury, keeping him out until mid-January, further reduces Millwall’s depth. While the squad has shown resilience, the absence of key players may require a strategic shift, prioritising defensive solidity and caution to mitigate these losses.

Millwall Key Players

Femi Azeez is Millwall’s top scorer with six goals, making him a crucial figure in their attack. His ability to find the net has been vital to Millwall’s campaign, and his pace and accuracy will be essential against Southampton. As a forward, Azeez will look to exploit any defensive weaknesses, supported by fellow attackers Aidomo Emakhu and Mihailo Ivanovic, who add further dynamism.

In midfield, Billy Mitchell is a standout performer, providing both defensive stability and creative spark. His control of the game’s tempo and distribution could be decisive in retaining possession and launching counter-attacks. At the back, Jake Cooper offers leadership and aerial strength, particularly important in set-piece situations. Cooper’s partnership with Caleb Taylor in central defence is expected to be a key factor in containing Southampton’s attacking threats.

Expected lineup for Millwall:

• Goalkeeper: Max Crocombe
• Defence: Tristan Crama, Caleb Taylor, Jake Cooper, Zak Sturge
• Midfield: Alfie Doughty, Billy Mitchell, Camiel Neghli
• Forward: Femi Azeez, Aidomo Emakhu, Mihailo Ivanovic

Millwall Tactics & Formation

Millwall Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Likely 4-5-1
• Key Forward: Mihailo Ivanovic
• Midfield Anchors: Billy Mitchell and Raees Bangura-Williams
• Defensive Resilience: Mixed results with only one clean sheet in five games
• Notable Strategy: Solid defensive setup with counter-attacking potential.

Millwall, under Alex Neil, typically employ a 4-5-1 formation focused on defensive solidity and quick counter-attacks. The midfield, anchored by Billy Mitchell and Raees Bangura-Williams, is vital for maintaining balance and facilitating transitions.

Defensively, the back four of Tristan Crama, Caleb Taylor, Jake Cooper, and Zak Sturge are tasked with keeping a compact shape and limiting space. This approach has delivered mixed results, with just one clean sheet in the last five games.

In attack, Mihailo Ivanovic leads the line, supported by the pace and creativity of Aidomo Emakhu and Camiel Neghli from midfield. Millwall’s tactical plan often involves absorbing pressure and exploiting spaces on the break.

Southampton vs Millwall Head-to-Head Record

Southampton hold the advantage in their head-to-head record against Millwall, winning 10 of their 17 meetings, while Millwall have just three wins and there have been five draws. The last meeting saw Millwall triumph 3-2 at home in the Championship.

The most recent encounter at St. Mary’s Stadium saw Millwall claim a rare 2-1 away victory in February 2024. Historically, Southampton have been strong at home against Millwall, but recent results suggest the visitors are becoming more competitive.

Home Side	Away Side	Score	Competition	Date
Millwall	Southampton	3 – 2	Championship	2025-11-29
Millwall	Southampton	0 – 1	Friendly Match	2024-08-03
Southampton	Millwall	1 – 2	Championship	2024-02-24
Millwall	Southampton	0 – 1	Championship	2023-11-04
Millwall	Southampton	0 – 2	League Cup	2014-08-26