FC Porto vs. Nacional Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 17 May 2025 - bettingexpert

On 17 May 2025, FC Porto will face Nacional at Estádio do Dragão in the final round of the Liga Portugal season. With Porto sitting comfortably in 3rd place, this match offers them a solid chance to finish the season on a high. On the other side, Nacional, in 13th place, aims to end their campaign positively despite facing tough odds.

Recent form suggests that Porto, led by Martín Anselmi, are strong favourites, especially with their dominant home performances. Meanwhile, Tiago Margarido’s Nacional have shown inconsistency and struggle against higher-ranked teams.

Referee José Bessa will oversee proceedings, ensuring a fair contest on what is expected to be a cool night perfect for football.

FC Porto vs Nacional Prediction & Betting Tip

FC Porto vs Nacional Prediction
Betting Tip	Odds
FC Porto -1.75 (AH)	1.30

• Porto have a strong home performance this season, making them heavy favourites.
• Nacional has struggled against top teams, often losing by a wide margin.
• Porto’s attacking strength and home advantage add pressure to Nacional.

Given the overwhelming home advantage and attacking prowess displayed by FC Porto throughout the season, combined with Nacional’s struggles against top-tier opponents, betting on Porto with a -1.75 Asian Handicap seems like a smart move.

FC Porto vs Nacional Odds

FC Porto vs Nacional Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
FC Porto	1.30
Draw	5.23
Nacional	9.22

The odds are heavily stacked in favour of FC Porto, reflecting their strong form and home advantage. A win for Porto is being offered at 1.30, making them clear favourites.

A draw, on the other hand, is priced at 5.23, indicating longer odds due to Porto’s dominance. Nacional, positioned lower on the table, have the highest odds for a win at 9.22, reflecting their underdog status in this matchup.

FC Porto Team Analysis

FC Porto Recent Performance

Home team	Away team	Date	Competition	Result
Boavista	FC Porto	2025-05-11	Liga Portugal	1-2 (Win)
FC Porto	Moreirense	2025-05-02	Liga Portugal	3-1 (Win)
Estrela da Amadora	FC Porto	2025-04-26	Liga Portugal	2-0 (Loss)
FC Porto	Famalicao	2025-04-18	Liga Portugal	2-1 (Win)
Casa Pia AC	FC Porto	2025-04-12	Liga Portugal	0-1 (Win)

FC Porto have been in solid form, securing four wins in their last five matches and registering a Recent Form of WWLWW. They have managed to score an average of 1.60 goals per game and have kept one clean sheet during this period. This strong finish to the season underscores their attacking prowess and demonstrated ability to clinch tight matches, factors that contribute to them being positioned 3rd in the league. Their current momentum sets them up well for the match against Nacional.

FC Porto Key Players

FC Porto’s key player to watch is undoubtedly Samuel Aghehowa, who has netted 18 goals this season. His ability to find the back of the net consistently makes him a significant threat to Nacional’s defense.

Another crucial player is Fábio Vieira, whose creativity and playmaking skills can unlock opposing defenses. His partnership with Aghehowa in the attacking third is something Nacional will need to be wary of.

With Nehuen Perez suspended, the defense will rely on Ivan Marcano and Zé Pedro to keep things tight at the back. Diogo Costa, a reliable presence in goal, will look to add to his clean sheet tally.

Expected lineup for FC Porto:

• Goalkeeper: Diogo Costa
• Defenders: Zé Pedro, Martim Fernandes, Ivan Marcano
• Midfielders: João Mário, Alan Varela, Stephen Eustaquio, Francisco Moura
• Attackers: Fábio Vieira, Samu Omorodion, Rodrigo Mora

This combination of solid defense and attacking flair should give FC Porto a strong advantage coming into this match.

FC Porto Suspensions & Injuries

FC Porto will have to manage a couple of key absences for this clash against Nacional.

Player	Injury	Expected return
Marko Grujić	Hamstring Injury	Potential return unknown
Vasco Sousa	Broken leg	Out for season

Player	Suspension	Expected return
Nehuen Perez	Yellow/red card	1 match left

These absences could impact the team’s performance, particularly in midfield where Grujić has been an influential figure, and the defense, where Perez’s suspension leaves a gap. João Mário and Alan Varela will need to step up in midfield, while Martim Fernandes is expected to fill the defensive void.

FC Porto Tactics and Formation

FC Porto Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-3
• Key Forward: Samuel Aghehowa
• Midfield Quartet: João Mário, Alan Varela, Stephen Eustáquio, Francisco Moura
• Defensive Strength: One clean sheet in the last five games

FC Porto’s manager, Martín Anselmi, favors a dynamic 3-4-3 formation, aiming to maximize width and quick transitions. With Samuel Aghehowa leading the attack and already having 18 goals this season, the forward line is both lethal and versatile. In the midfield, João Mário and Francisco Moura operate as wing-backs, providing both defensive support and attacking options. Alan Varela and Stephen Eustáquio anchor the center, focusing on ball recovery and distribution. The back three, spearheaded by Ivan Marcano, are essential in building play from the back while maintaining defensive solidity. Overall, Porto will look to control the tempo and apply constant pressure on Nacional, especially exploiting their weaker defensive phases in the final 15 minutes of the match.

Nacional Team Analysis

Nacional Recent Performance:

Nacional’s recent form has been mixed, with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Here’s a detailed look:

Home team	Away team	Date	Competition	Result
Nacional	Rio Ave	2025-05-10	Liga Portugal	3-3 (Draw)
Nacional	Vitoria SC	2025-05-03	Liga Portugal	1-2 (Loss)
Moreirense	Nacional	2025-04-27	Liga Portugal	1-1 (Draw)
Nacional	Gil Vicente	2025-04-19	Liga Portugal	0-3 (Loss)
Boavista	Nacional	2025-04-12	Liga Portugal	0-1 (Win)

Nacional averages 1.2 goals scored per game and has kept one clean sheet in these five matches. However, their defense has been leaky, conceding multiple goals in three of their last five outings. This inconsistency will be a concern for coach Tiago Margarido as they face a strong FC Porto side in the upcoming fixture.

Nacional Key Players

Daniel Penha will be a key figure for Nacional in this fixture, given he is their top scorer this season with 4 goals. His presence in the midfield will be crucial to create and convert chances against a strong FC Porto defense.
Joel Tagueu, who leads the attack, will look to exploit any gaps left by Porto’s defenders. His physical presence and aerial ability could pose a threat, especially during set-pieces.
On the defensive side, Djibril Soumare will be tasked with marshalling the backline and fending off Porto’s relentless attacking force.

Expected lineup for Nacional:

• Goalkeeper: Rui Encarnação
• Defenders: Léo Santos, Djibril Soumare, Ze Vitor, Joao Aurelio
• Midfielders: Daniel Penha, Chiheb Labidi, Paulinho Bóia
• Attackers: Arvin Appiah, Joel Tagueu, Fuki Yamada

The midfield battle between Penha and Porto’s Stephen Eustaquio will be critical in dictating the game’s tempo.

Nacional Suspensions & Injuries

Nacional will be dealing with a few significant absences that could impact their performance against FC Porto.

Player	Injury	Expected return
Miguel Baeza	Thigh injury	Out for the season
Ivanildo Fernandes	Unknown	Doubtful
Dyego Sousa	Unknown	Doubtful

Player	Suspension	Expected return
Lucas Franca	Yellow cards	1 match ban

Miguel Baeza’s season-ending thigh injury is a blow to their midfield options, depriving them of his creative and defensive capabilities. Additionally, the doubts over Ivanildo Fernandes and Dyego Sousa further weaken their depth. The suspension of Lucas Franca means Nacional will be forced to rely on backup goalkeeper Rui Encarnação, a scenario likely to test their defensive resilience against Porto.

Nacional Tactics and Formation

Nacional’s Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Joel Tagueu
• Midfield Creativity: Daniel Penha, Chiheb Labidi, Paulinho Boia
• Defensive Setup: Léo Santos, Djibril Soumare, Zé Vitor at the back

Nacional’s approach is defined by their 4-2-3-1 formation, with a focus on defensive solidity and quick transitions.

In Attack:

• Joel Tagueu leads the line, aiming to exploit any openings in Porto’s defence.
• The attacking trio of Arvin Appiah, Daniel Penha, and Fuki Yamada provides creativity and pace.

Midfield Balance:

• Penha and Labidi are crucial in both playmaking and defensive duties.
• They will look to control the tempo and provide support to the offensive unit.

Defensive Resilience:

• The backline, supported by defensive midfielders, aims to hold ground and break up Porto’s attacking plays.
• Recent performances show some defensive vulnerabilities, conceding on average 1.5 goals per match this season.

Against a dominant Porto attack, maintaining defensive discipline will be pivotal for Nacional. Their strategy will likely emphasize counter-attacks and set-pieces to create scoring opportunities.

FC Porto vs Nacional Head-to-Head Statistics

Home team	Away team	Date	Competition	Result
Nacional	FC Porto	2025-01-12	Liga Portugal	2-0 (Loss)
FC Porto	Nacional	2024-07-13	Club Friendlies	4-1 (Win)
Nacional	FC Porto	2021-04-18	Primeira Liga	0-1 (Win)
Nacional	FC Porto	2021-01-12	Cup	2-2 (Draw, ET: 0-2)
FC Porto	Nacional	2020-12-20	Primeira Liga	2-0 (Win)

In their last five meetings, FC Porto has the upper hand, with three outright victories and one draw that turned into a win after extra time.
Nacional, though, stunned Porto earlier this season with a 2-0 win, proving they can be a challenging opponent.

Odds accurate as of 15th May 2025, 6:01 PM, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.