Gil Vicente vs Nacional Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Saturday, 17 January

Gil Vicente will face Nacional in an intriguing Liga Portugal clash this Saturday, 17 January. The match will take place at the Municipal de Barcelos, providing a familiar backdrop for the home team. As both teams look to climb the league standings, this encounter promises to be a significant test of their current form and ambitions.

Gil Vicente, playing on their home turf, will aim to leverage their local advantage against Nacional. Meanwhile, Nacional will be eager to secure valuable points away from home. This matchup is crucial for both sides as they seek to establish themselves in the competitive landscape of Liga Portugal. With both teams having much at stake, the game is set to offer an engaging spectacle for fans and bettors alike.

Gil Vicente vs Nacional Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Over 3 goals	3.05

Given both teams’ tendencies to score and concede goals, our recommended betting tip is to back ‘Over 5.5 Goals’ in this match. Nacional have conceded an average of 1.5 goals across 17 matches this season and have scored in 78% of their away games, so we can expect plenty of action.

• Nacional have a high scoring rate, finding the net in 78% of their away matches.
• Gil Vicente’s pattern of scoring most of their goals between the 31st and 45th minutes could lead to a flurry of goals in the first half.
• Both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in high-scoring games, making ‘Over 5.5 Goals’ a valuable bet.

Betting Odds

Gil Vicente are clear favourites in this Liga Portugal clash, with betting odds reflecting their strong home advantage. Nacional, on the other hand, are considered underdogs, but their odds could tempt those seeking an upset.

Betting Tip	Odds
Gil Vicente to win	1.64
Draw	3.67
Nacional to win	5.26

With Gil Vicente’s solid form at the Municipal de Barcelos, punters might find value in backing the home side. However, considering the odds for a draw, it could be worth a punt if you fancy a tighter affair.

Gil Vicente Analysis & Past Performance

Gil Vicente have been a team of draws recently, with their last five matches all ending in shared points. This run includes a 1-1 draw against Sporting CP, highlighting their competitive edge against top-tier teams. The team have consistently found the net in four out of their last five games, averaging 1.20 goals scored per match, while also conceding 1.20 goals per game.

Home Side	Away Side	Outcome	League	Date
Gil Vicente	Sporting CP	1 – 1 (Draw)	Liga Portugal	2 Jan, 2026
Arouca	Gil Vicente	2 – 2 (Draw)	Liga Portugal	28 Dec, 2025
Gil Vicente	Rio Ave	2 – 2 (Draw)	Liga Portugal	20 Dec, 2025
Casa Pia AC	Gil Vicente	1 – 1 (Draw)	Liga Portugal	13 Dec, 2025
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Gil Vicente	0 – 0 (Draw)	Liga Portugal	8 Dec, 2025

Recent Form:
Despite their inability to secure a win in the past five outings, Gil Vicente have shown resilience, maintaining an undefeated streak. Their defensive structure has been relatively solid, with only one clean sheet, yet their capacity to limit opponents’ scoring to a similar average of 1.20 goals per game is commendable. At home, they’ve been slightly more successful, winning 40% of their games this season.

The team sit comfortably in the league’s top tier, ranking 4th with 28 points, thanks to a balanced approach. Pablo, their top scorer, has been instrumental, contributing 45% of their goals. However, the challenge remains in converting draws into victories, as their current form could be pivotal in maintaining their league position.

• DDDDD

Gil Vicente Suspensions & Injuries

The absence of Agustín Moreira due to an unspecified injury is a concern for Gil Vicente as they prepare to face Nacional. Moreira’s status is currently doubtful, which could impact Gil Vicente’s midfield dynamics, especially in terms of creativity and defensive solidity. His potential unavailability forces coach César Peixoto to look for alternatives who can fill the gap left by Moreira’s absence.

With Moreira doubtful, Facundo Cáseres might be expected to take on a more significant role in the midfield. Cáseres, known for his versatility, could be pivotal in maintaining the team’s balance and link-up play. This adjustment may require a tactical reshuffle, possibly altering Gil Vicente’s typical formation to better accommodate the available personnel.

Gil Vicente’s tactical approach might need to adapt, focusing on a more robust defensive setup to counterbalance the potential lack of midfield depth. This could involve a shift to a more cautious formation, prioritising defensive stability over offensive creativity. Such changes could influence the flow and pace of the match, possibly impacting betting odds as the team adjusts to these setbacks.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Agustín Moreira	Unknown	Doubtful

Gil Vicente Key Players

Pablo has been a standout performer for Gil Vicente, leading the team as top scorer with 10 goals. His prowess in front of goal is vital to the team’s attacking strength, often finding space behind the defence with intelligent movement and clinical finishing. Pablo’s ability to convert chances will be crucial against Nacional’s defence.

In midfield, Santi García plays a pivotal role as playmaker, orchestrating the tempo and providing key passes to unlock the opposition’s defence. His partnership with Facundo Cáseres ensures Gil Vicente maintain control in central areas, allowing for a seamless transition from defence to attack. On the wings, the pace and creativity of Murilo de Souza Costa can stretch the opposition, providing width and crossing opportunities.

Expected lineup for Gil Vicente:

• Goalkeeper: Dani Figueira
• Defence: Zé Carlos, Antonio Espigares, Marvin Elimbi, Hevertton
• Midfield: Facundo Cáseres, Santi García, Luís Esteves
• Forward: Murilo de Souza Costa, Tidjany Touré, Gustavo Varela

Defensively, Antonio Espigares is a commanding presence, providing stability and leadership at the back. His aerial ability and tackling strength are essential in thwarting Nacional’s attacking threats. With this solid defensive foundation and dynamic attacking options, Gil Vicente’s tactical approach can effectively exploit weaknesses in the opposition, aiming for a decisive victory.

Gil Vicente Tactics and Formation

Gil Vicente Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Gustavo Varela
• Midfield Pivot: Luís Esteves and Facundo Cáseres
• Defensive Strength: Only one clean sheet in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Utilising width through wingers and set-piece threat.

Gil Vicente typically adopt a 4-2-3-1 formation, which helps them maintain a balance between defence and attack. The midfield pivot of Luís Esteves and Facundo Cáseres is crucial for both breaking up opposition play and facilitating transitions. This formation allows for fluidity in attack, with Santi García playing a pivotal role in linking up play from midfield to the lone striker, Gustavo Varela.

Defensively, Gil Vicente have struggled to maintain clean sheets, managing only one in their last five matches. The defensive line-up often includes Zé Carlos and Marvin Elimbi, who need to be more consistent in maintaining their shape and reducing space for opponents.

Offensively, Gil Vicente focus on utilising the width provided by wingers like Murilo and Tidjany Touré. They often look to capitalise on set-pieces, where their aerial prowess can be a significant advantage. Despite their recent run of draws, they have shown resilience and the ability to score, as evidenced by their average of 1.20 goals per game.

Nacional Analysis & Past Performance

Nacional’s recent form has been shaky, as evidenced by their record of one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Their most recent outing against Santa Clara ended in a 3-3 draw, highlighting both their attacking prowess and defensive vulnerabilities.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Nacional	Santa Clara	3 – 3 (Draw)	Liga Portugal	11 Jan, 2026
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Nacional	2 – 1 (Loss)	Liga Portugal	2 Jan, 2026
AVS Futebol SAD	Nacional	2 – 2 (Draw)	Liga Portugal	21 Dec, 2025
Nacional	Tondela	3 – 1 (Win)	Liga Portugal	15 Dec, 2025
Alverca	Nacional	1 – 0 (Loss)	Liga Portugal	7 Dec, 2025

Recent Form:

• DLDWL

Nacional have been averaging 1.80 goals scored and conceded per match over their last five games, indicating a tendency for high-scoring encounters. Despite finding the back of the net in four out of five games, their defence hasn’t managed to secure any clean sheets, which remains a significant concern. Away from home, they have struggled, with no wins in their last five away fixtures, recording three draws and two losses. This poor away form is reflected in their win away ratio of 0.00. Currently sitting 13th in the league with 17 points, Nacional need to tighten their defence to climb up the standings.

Nacional Suspensions & Injuries

Nacional face a challenging fixture against Gil Vicente without the services of Ivanildo Fernandes, Filipe Soares, and Ulisses due to injuries. Their absence could significantly impact defensive and midfield stability, as Fernandes and Soares are crucial to Nacional’s defensive setup and midfield dynamism, respectively. The uncertainty surrounding their return adds to the tactical dilemmas for coach Tiago Margarido.

In the absence of these key players, Nacional may need to rely on less experienced squad members to fill the gaps. The potential inclusion of players like José Gomes and Liziero in more central roles could be pivotal. Their performances will be crucial in maintaining the team’s balance and effectiveness on the pitch.

Without Fernandes anchoring the defence and Soares providing midfield creativity, Nacional may opt for a more conservative approach, focusing on a compact defensive shape to mitigate Gil Vicente’s attacking threats. This tactical adjustment could see the team play deeper, relying on counter-attacks led by Miguel Baeza and Jesús Ramírez.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Ivanildo Fernandes	Unknown	Doubtful
Filipe Soares	Unknown	Doubtful
Ulisses	Unknown	Doubtful

Nacional Key Players

Nacional’s attacking prowess will be spearheaded by their top scorer, Jesús Ramírez, who has netted an impressive 12 goals this season. Ramírez’s ability to find space and exploit defensive weaknesses makes him a constant threat in the attacking third. His partnership with Daniel Júnior and Paulinho Bóia in the forward line is expected to be pivotal, as they provide both creativity and finishing prowess.

In midfield, the trio of Matheus Dias, Miguel Baeza, and Liziero will be tasked with controlling the tempo and providing a solid link between defence and attack. Their ability to maintain possession and dictate play will be crucial against Gil Vicente. Defensively, the experienced João Aurélio, alongside Zé Vítor and José Gomes, will need to be at their resilient best to contain any offensive threats.

Expected lineup for Nacional

• Goalkeeper: Kaique Pereira
• Defenders: João Aurélio, Zé Vítor, José Gomes, Léo Santos
• Midfielders: Matheus Dias, Miguel Baeza, Liziero
• Forwards: Daniel Júnior, Paulinho Bóia, Jesús Ramírez

Nacional Tactics and Formation

Nacional Tactical Breakdown:

• Recent Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Jesús Ramírez
• Midfield Engine: Matheus Dias and Liziero
• Defensive Challenges: No clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Focus on attacking transitions and set-pieces.

Nacional have recently favoured a 4-2-3-1 formation with Jesús Ramírez leading the attack. This setup allows Nacional to maintain a balanced structure, with Matheus Dias and Liziero playing pivotal roles in midfield, providing both defensive cover and offensive support.

Defensively, Nacional have struggled, conceding goals in each of their last five games. The backline, featuring João Aurélio and Léo Santos, will need to tighten up to address vulnerabilities, especially against a Gil Vicente side known for their attacking prowess.

Offensively, Nacional’s strategy revolves around quick transitions and exploiting set-pieces, leveraging the creativity of Miguel Baeza and Paulinho Bóia. Despite recent defensive lapses, their offensive approach has seen both teams score in 80% of their last five matches.

Gil Vicente vs Nacional H2H Record

In the head-to-head record between Gil Vicente and Nacional, Gil Vicente have a slight edge with 11 wins compared to Nacional’s 10, and there have been 6 draws. The last time these two met, Gil Vicente came out on top with a 2-0 victory away at Nacional in August 2025, showcasing their recent dominance.

The last encounter at the Municipal de Barcelos saw Gil Vicente secure a 2-1 win in December 2024, continuing their strong home form against Nacional. Historically, matches between these sides in Liga Portugal have been closely contested, but Gil Vicente have shown a knack for edging out results at home.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Nacional	Gil Vicente	0 – 2	Primeira Liga	2025-08-09
Nacional	Gil Vicente	0 – 3	Primeira Liga	2025-04-19
Gil Vicente	Nacional	2 – 1	Primeira Liga	2024-12-07
Gil Vicente	Nacional	2 – 0	League Cup Group E	2022-11-27
Gil Vicente	Nacional	2 – 0	Primeira Liga	2021-03-19