Leon vs. Puebla Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 9 November 2025

As we approach the final round of the Liga MX Apertura on 9 November 2025, Leon hosts Puebla at Estadio Nou Camp. While both teams are at the bottom of the standings, Leon is 17th with 13 points and Puebla is 18th with 9 points, the match carries significant weight for both sides aiming to end the season on a high.

Leon, led by Ignacio Ambriz, has not enjoyed the best form as they are without a win in their last nine matches. Their lackluster offense is evident with an average of just 0.60 goals scored in their last five games. Meanwhile, Puebla, under Hernan Cristante, has shown a bit more bite in front of goal, averaging 2.00 goals in their last five outings, but still struggles defensively, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per match.

Given both sides’ recent performances and offensive struggles, this game is expected to be low-scoring. Our recommended bet is under 2.5 goals. With both teams’ top scorers, Ismael Diaz and Emiliano Gomez, tied at five goals each, it will be interesting to see which side can break through the opponent’s leaky defense.

This game, though between two lower-table sides, is a litmus test for resilience and form, setting a tone for the upcoming Clausura.

Leon vs Puebla Prediction & Betting Tip

Leon vs Puebla Prediction
Betting tip
Under 2.5 goals

Given the recent form and scoring struggles of both Leon and Puebla, our recommended betting tip for this match is "Under 2.5 goals".

• Defensive Issues & Offensive Struggles: Both teams have struggled to achieve clean sheets in their last 5 games, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Leon has only managed an average of 0.60 goals per game in their last 5 outings, while Puebla fares slightly better with 2.00 goals but still fails to convert these into consistent wins.
• Low-scoring Trends: Historically, matches between these two sides have seen fewer goals. Given Leon’s current dry spell—no wins in their last nine matches—it’s reasonable to anticipate another low-scoring affair.
• Final Standing Push: With the last matchday upon us, both teams will aim to end the season with dignity, likely leading to a cautious and conservative approach, reducing the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

Overall, considering the defensive woes and goal-scoring struggles from both squads, betting on under 2.5 goals appears to be a prudent choice.

Leon vs Puebla Odds

To make sense of the potential outcomes for this Liga MX clash, let’s take a closer look at the betting odds for Leon vs Puebla. The bookmakers have weighed in, favoring the home side, Leon, to secure a win in this match.

Leon vs Puebla Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Leon	1.88
Draw	3.61
Puebla	3.63

These odds indicate:

• Leon Favored: Despite their challenging season, Leon is the bookmakers’ pick to edge out Puebla, albeit at relatively tight odds.
• Close Contest Expected: The odds for a draw and a Puebla victory suggest a competitive matchup where anything could happen.
• Consider Value Betting: With Leon’s recent form and the odds provided, there could be those looking at alternatives, such as betting on a low-scoring game.

As we inch closer to this fixture, fans and bettors alike should keep a close eye on how these odds may shift, guided by last-minute changes in line-ups or pre-match news.

Leon Team Analysis

Leon Recent Performance

Leon’s recent performance can best be described as a struggle. Over their last five matches, they have managed three losses and two draws, bringing their form to LLLDL. Their inability to secure a victory in nine consecutive matches has been a major concern for coach Ignacio Ambriz.

Key Statistics:

• Average Goals Scored: Leon has only averaged 0.60 goals per game in their last five outings, highlighting their offensive struggles.
• Clean Sheets: They have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches, further emphasizing their defensive frailties.
• Goals Conceded: Their defense has been breached repeatedly, resulting in multiple losses.

With their top scorer, Ismael Diaz, having scored just 5 goals this season, Leon needs a significant turnaround to finish their season positively. As they face Puebla, the pressure will be on to improve both their attack and defense.

Leon Key Players

Leon’s season has largely been underwhelming, but there are a few standout individuals who will be crucial in their attempt to finish the campaign on a high note against Puebla.
Key Players:

• Ismael Diaz: The top scorer for Leon with 5 goals this season. His ability to convert chances will be vital in a game where goals can be rare.
• James Rodriguez: As an experienced forward, he has the capacity to either score or assist key goals, leveraging his playmaking skills.
• Defensive Responsibilities: The center-back pairing of Jaine Barreiro and Rodrigo Echeverria will be crucial in keeping Puebla’s attack at bay.

Expected Lineup:

• Goalkeeper: Oscar Damián García
• Defenders: Jose David Ramirez, Jaine Stiven Barreiro, Rodrigo Echeverria, Salvador Reyes
• Midfielders: Ivan Moreno, Fernando Beltran, Nicolás Fonseca, Miguel Rodríguez
• Forwards: Jose Alvarado, James Rodriguez

As they prepare for the fixture, individual battles such as Diaz against Puebla’s defenders could prove crucial in determining the match outcome.

Leon Suspensions & Injuries

Leon enters this critical match against Puebla with a couple of injury concerns that could affect their performance.
Injuries:

• Daniel Arcila: Currently nursing a knock injury and remains doubtful for the upcoming match. His potential absence could hamper Leon’s midfield stability.
• Rogelio Funes Mori: Sidelined with a calf injury, also listed as doubtful. Without Funes Mori’s physical presence, the team’s attacking options might be limited.

Overall Impact:
These potential absences might force coach Ignacio Ambriz to make strategic adjustments. The lack of concrete replacements may put additional pressure on the available players, particularly in maintaining both defensive solidity and attacking flair against Puebla. Staying cohesive and minimizing lapses will be crucial for Leon to break their winless streak.

Leon Tactics and Formation

Leon Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-4-2
• Key Forwards: James Rodriguez, Jose Alvarado
• Midfield Quartet: Ivan Moreno, Fernando Beltran, Nicolás Fonseca, Miguel Rodríguez
• Defensive Line: Jose David Ramirez, Jaine Stiven Barreiro, Rodrigo Echeverria, Salvador Reyes
• Notable Strategy: Leon tends to deploy a compact midfield to shield their vulnerable defense and relies on quick transitions to catch opponents off guard.

Given their recent form and scoring struggles, Ignacio Ambriz may continue with their 4-4-2 formation, aiming for better defensive solidity. James Rodriguez’s experience up front will be pivotal for creating chances, while the midfielders need to capitalize on counter-attacks more efficiently. Defensively, the focus will be on minimizing lapses and maintaining discipline to prevent Puebla from exploiting their weaknesses.

Puebla Team Analysis

Puebla Recent Performance

Puebla’s season has been tumultuous, showcasing a mixed bag of results in their recent fixtures. Over their last five games, they have managed one win, one draw, and three losses, summing up their form to LWLDL.

Key Statistics:

• Average Goals Scored: Puebla has been more prolific in front of goal compared to Leon, averaging 2.00 goals per game in their last five matches.
• Clean Sheets: Much like their opponents, Puebla has struggled defensively with zero clean sheets in their last five outings.
• Goals Conceded: Their defense has conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game this season, highlighting an area needing urgent improvement.

The team’s attacking prowess, led by Emiliano Gomez, who has netted five goals, will be essential. However, their defensive lapses remain a significant concern as they face a must-win scenario against Leon to lift themselves off the bottom of the table.

Puebla Key Players

Puebla will heavily rely on a few standout players to make an impact against Leon in this crucial clash.
Key Players:

• Emiliano Gomez: The team’s top scorer with 5 goals this season, his ability to find the back of the net will be pivotal in beating a vulnerable Leon defense.
• Ricardo Marin: As the primary forward, Marin’s effectiveness in converting scoring opportunities will be vital.
• Alejandro Organista: Operating in midfield, Organista’s distribution and ability to transition play could unlock Leon’s defense.

Expected Lineup:

• Goalkeeper: Jesús Iván Rodríguez
• Defenders: Álvaro De La Rosa, Eduardo Navarro, Jose Pachuca, Efrain Orona, Nicolás Díaz
• Midfielders: Edgar Guerra, Alejandro Organista, Luis Gabriel Rey, Emiliano Gómez
• Forward: Ricardo Marin

This match will see key individual battles, such as Gomez against Leon’s defenders, determining the strategic flow of the game.

Puebla Suspensions & Injuries

Puebla faces several injury challenges heading into their match against Leon, which could significantly impact their performance.
Injuries:

• Fernando Aristeguieta: Sidelined with a broken foot, his return date remains uncertain, robbing Puebla of a key attacking option.
• Lucas Cavallini: Out with a cruciate ligament injury, expected to return in late March 2026. His absence is a significant blow to their forward line.
• Juan Fedorco: Nursing an ankle injury and is doubtful for the match. His potential absence could hamper Puebla’s midfield rotation.

Overall Impact:
These injuries might limit coach Hernan Cristante’s tactical flexibility and force him to rely on less experienced squad members. Ensuring defensive solidity will be crucial to mitigate these key absences and improve their chances of securing a positive result.

Puebla Tactics and Formation

Puebla Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 5-4-1
• Key Forward: Ricardo Marin
• Midfield Four: Edgar Guerra, Alejandro Organista, Luis Gabriel Rey, Emiliano Gómez
• Defensive Line: Álvaro De La Rosa, Eduardo Navarro, Jose Pachuca, Efrain Orona, Nicolás Díaz
• Notable Strategy: Puebla tends to focus on a fortified defense with an emphasis on quick counter-attacks, leveraging Gomez and Marin’s speed.

Puebla, under Hernan Cristante, may look to employ their 5-4-1 formation to maintain defensive stability while countering effectively. Given their defensive vulnerabilities, ensuring a tight backline will be crucial. Emiliano Gómez and Ricardo Marin are pivotal for any counter-attacking opportunities, requiring precise defending and quick transitions from defense to attack. This tactical approach aims to exploit Leon’s own defensive weaknesses while safeguarding their goal.

Leon vs Puebla Head-to-Head Statistics

Analyzing the recent head-to-head encounters between Leon and Puebla provides an interesting backdrop to this upcoming match. Over the last five meetings, Leon has come out on top three times, with Puebla securing one win, and the teams drawing once.
Last 5 Meetings:

• Leon 1-0 Puebla (2025-04-12): A narrow victory for Leon in the Liga MX Clausura.
• Puebla 2-2 Leon (2024-07-17): An evenly contested draw in the Liga MX Apertura.
• Leon 2-1 Puebla (2024-03-17): Leon clinched another home win in the Liga MX Clausura.
• Puebla 5-4 Leon (2023-11-04): A thrilling high-scoring affair in Liga MX Apertura, with Puebla emerging victorious.
• Leon 2-0 Puebla (2023-02-15): Comfortable win for Leon in the Liga MX Clausura.

These past results suggest a slight edge for Leon, especially in home fixtures. With both teams struggling this season, however, previous form might not heavily influence the outcome. With Puebla proving capable of scoring, fans could be in for an engaging contest despite their current standings.

Odds accurate as of 07/11/2025 01:01, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.