Puebla vs Toluca Prediction, Match Preview, Saturday, 31 January

Puebla vs Toluca Prediction, Match Preview, Saturday, 31 January. As we look ahead to this intriguing Liga MX clash, both teams are set to face off at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc. Puebla will be eager to capitalise on their home advantage, while Toluca aim to secure valuable points on the road. This matchup promises to be a significant encounter in the league, with both sides looking to strengthen their standings.

The Estadio Cuauhtémoc will host this key fixture, providing a vibrant backdrop for the action. Puebla, known for their resilient home performances, will be up against Toluca, who have shown their capability to challenge even the toughest opponents. As the teams prepare for this encounter, fans can expect a competitive game that could have implications for their respective positions in the Liga MX table.

Puebla vs Toluca Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Toluca Draw No Bet	1.8

Given the current form and historical context, our recommended betting tip is Toluca Draw No Bet. This option offers a balanced risk-reward ratio by providing a safety net in case of a draw, while still capitalising on Toluca’s superior form and head-to-head advantage.

• Toluca have won three of the last five meetings against Puebla, showcasing their upper hand in this matchup.
• Puebla’s key striker, Lucas Cavallini, is out with a long-term injury, significantly weakening their attacking threat.
• Toluca’s recent 3-1 victory over Santos Laguna highlights their attacking prowess and current confidence, making them a strong candidate to avoid defeat.

Betting Odds

In this Liga MX clash, Toluca are the clear favourites with betting odds of 1.62, reflecting their strong form and higher league standing. Puebla, playing at home, are given odds of 4.8, suggesting a challenging match ahead for them.

Betting Tip	Odds
Puebla to win	4.8
Draw	3.84
Toluca to win	1.62

The draw is priced at 3.84, which might attract those expecting a tighter contest. Given Toluca’s attacking prowess, punters might also consider betting on over 2.5 goals, as this could be a high-scoring affair.

Puebla Analysis & Past Performance

Puebla have experienced a challenging stretch in their recent form, marked by inconsistency in results. Over the last five matches, they have secured two victories against Mazatlán FC (2-1) and León (2-1), but have suffered three defeats, including a narrow 0-1 loss away to Cruz Azul. This performance underscores their struggle to maintain stability in both attack and defence.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Cruz Azul	Puebla	1 – 0 (Loss)	Liga MX Clausura	18 Jan 2026
Puebla	Mazatlán FC	2 – 1 (Win)	Liga MX Clausura	13 Jan 2026
Atlas	Puebla	1 – 0 (Loss)	Liga MX Clausura	10 Jan 2026
León	Puebla	1 – 2 (Win)	Liga MX Apertura	9 Nov 2025
Puebla	Cruz Azul	0 – 3 (Loss)	Liga MX Apertura	1 Nov 2025

Recent Form:
The team have averaged 0.80 goals per game in their last five outings, totalling 4 goals, while conceding 1.40 goals on average, with 7 goals against. Such statistics highlight their defensive vulnerabilities, as evident by the fact they have conceded in all five of these games, failing to keep a clean sheet. Despite this, Puebla’s home form shows some resilience, winning 40% of their last five home matches.

In terms of league standing, Puebla currently sit 14th in Liga MX, reflecting a win ratio of 40% from their last ten games, where they scored 14 goals but conceded 21. Esteban Lozano remains a key figure, having scored a goal in recent games, although the team’s overall scoring output remains modest. These dynamics suggest that while Puebla can secure wins, they need to bolster their defensive and attacking efficiency to climb the league standings.

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Puebla Suspensions & Injuries

Puebla face a challenging situation with the absence of key players due to injuries, which could significantly impact their tactical approach against Toluca. Fernando Aristeguieta’s broken foot leaves a considerable void in the attacking line, as his physical presence and goal-scoring ability are sorely missed. Lucas Cavallini’s cruciate ligament injury further compounds these issues, sidelining him until late March 2026. This double blow to Puebla’s forward options requires coach Hernán Cristante to re-evaluate his strategy, likely relying more on Esteban Lozano to lead the attack.

The impact of these injuries on Puebla’s overall strength cannot be understated. With two pivotal forwards unavailable, the team may have to adapt by employing a more conservative approach, possibly focusing on solidifying their midfield to control the game and limit Toluca’s opportunities. The absence of Aristeguieta and Cavallini also opens the door for younger players like Emiliano Gómez to step up and prove their worth in the first team.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Fernando Aristeguieta	Broken foot	Unknown
Lucas Cavallini	Cruciate ligament injury	Late March 2026

From a betting perspective, these injuries may influence the odds, as Puebla’s attacking threat is diminished without their key forwards. Bettors might consider how these absences could affect the match outcome, with Toluca potentially having the upper hand given Puebla’s weakened offensive line. However, the unpredictability of football means Puebla could still spring a surprise if their replacements rise to the occasion.

Puebla Key Players

Puebla’s attacking lineup is spearheaded by their top scorer Esteban Lozano, who has managed to find the back of the net once this season. Lozano’s ability to position himself advantageously and his keen eye for goal make him a constant threat to opposition defences. His partnership with Emiliano Gómez and Edgar Guerra in the forward line is crucial, as their interplay and movement can disrupt Toluca’s defensive structure.

In the midfield, Alejandro Organista plays a pivotal role, orchestrating play and linking the defence with the attack. His vision and passing accuracy are vital for Puebla’s tactical approach, which often involves quick transitions and exploiting spaces left by the opposition. Defensively, Nicolás Díaz stands out with his commanding presence and ability to read the game, providing stability and leadership at the back.

Expected lineup for Puebla

• Goalkeeper: Ricardo Daniel Gutiérrez
• Defenders: Iker Moreno, Eduardo Navarro, José Pachuca, Nicolás Díaz
• Midfielders: Luis Gabriel Rey, Alejandro Organista, Kevin Velasco
• Forwards: Edgar Guerra, Emiliano Gómez, Esteban Lozano

Puebla Tactics and Formation

Puebla Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Likely to continue with a 4-5-1
• Key Forward: Esteban Lozano
• Midfield Pivot: Luis Gabriel Rey and Edgar Guerra
• Defensive Concerns: Conceded in all of their last five games
• Notable Strategy: Reliance on midfield strength and counterattacks.

Puebla, under the guidance of Hernán Cristante, are expected to maintain their 4-5-1 formation, which allows them to pack the midfield and control the game’s tempo. Luis Gabriel Rey and Edgar Guerra form a key midfield pivot, tasked with both breaking up opposition play and initiating attacks.

Defensively, Puebla have struggled to keep clean sheets, having conceded in each of their last five matches. Their backline, including Nicolás Díaz and Fernando Monárrez, needs to tighten up, especially given the high number of shots they face, as evidenced by their last outing against Cruz Azul.

Offensively, Puebla’s approach often revolves around quick transitions and counterattacks, with Esteban Lozano leading the line. His ability to capitalise on sporadic opportunities will be crucial, even as Puebla seek to improve their goal-scoring record, which has been below par with an average of 0.80 goals per game.

Toluca Analysis & Past Performance

Toluca’s recent form has been quite impressive, with a strong showing in their last five matches, securing three wins, one draw, and one loss. Their ability to score goals has been notable, with an average of 3.00 goals per game, totalling 15 goals across these fixtures. The team’s striking performance was highlighted in their 3-1 victory over Santos Laguna and a narrow 1-0 win against Monterrey, showcasing their attacking prowess.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Tigres	Toluca	0 – 0 (Draw)	Liga MX Clausura	18 Jan 2026
Toluca	Santos Laguna	3 – 1 (Win)	Liga MX Clausura	15 Jan 2026
Monterrey	Toluca	0 – 1 (Win)	Liga MX Clausura	11 Jan 2026
Toluca	Tigres	N/A	Liga MX Apertura Playoff	15 Dec 2025
Tigres	Toluca	1 – 0 (Loss)	Liga MX Apertura Playoff	12 Dec 2025

Recent Form:
Defensively, Toluca have kept two clean sheets in their last five games, which speaks to their ability to maintain composure under pressure. However, they’ve also conceded 11 goals, averaging 2.20 per game, indicating room for improvement in defensive solidity. Away from home, they have managed a balanced record with two wins, two losses, and one draw out of their last five away fixtures. This suggests a level of resilience, though consistent defensive performances will be key to sustaining their current league position.

In terms of league standing, Toluca are currently second, demonstrating their overall strong form this season. Their top scorer, Helinho, has been instrumental, contributing significantly to their goal tally. Toluca’s tactical approach, focusing on offensive dynamism, has yielded positive results, yet defensive lapses remain a critical area for adjustment as they prepare for their upcoming fixture against Cruz Azul.

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Toluca Suspensions & Injuries

Toluca face a significant challenge with the absence of key players due to injuries. Luan, suffering from a groin injury, is doubtful for the upcoming match, which could impact the team’s defensive stability and midfield transitions. His ability to hold the line and distribute effectively has been crucial in previous matches, and his absence may necessitate a reshuffle in the midfield setup.

Ernesto Alexis Vega is also sidelined with a knee injury, expected to return mid-February 2026. Vega’s attacking prowess and creativity in the final third will be missed, as he often provides the spark in Toluca’s forward play. The team will likely need to rely more heavily on Paulinho to fill the creative void left by Vega’s absence, potentially altering their attacking tactics to focus on more direct play.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Luan	Groin injury	Doubtful
Ernesto Alexis Vega	Knee injury	Mid February 2026

With these injuries, Toluca may need to adjust their formation and rely on squad depth, possibly giving opportunities to younger or less experienced players to step up. The tactical impact of these absences could be profound, potentially affecting their ability to maintain possession and control the tempo of the game. Bettors should consider these factors, as they may influence Toluca’s overall effectiveness against Puebla.

Toluca Key Players

Toluca’s attacking prowess will hinge on their top scorer Helinho, who has netted two goals this season. Helinho’s agility and keen eye for goal make him a constant threat in the forward line. His ability to exploit spaces and link up with fellow forwards Jesús Angulo and Paulinho is critical for Toluca’s offensive strategy. Helinho’s movement and finishing skills are expected to be a focal point in breaking down Puebla’s defence.

In the midfield, Marcel Ruiz stands out as a playmaker with his vision and passing range. Ruiz’s ability to control the tempo of the game and deliver precise balls to the forwards can significantly impact Toluca’s tactical approach. Alongside him, Franco Romero and Nicolás Castro provide stability and support, ensuring a balanced midfield presence.

Expected lineup for Toluca:

• Goalkeeper: Luis García
• Defence: Diego Barbosa, Everardo Del Villar, Federico Pereira, Jesús Gallardo
• Midfield: Marcel Ruiz, Franco Romero, Nicolás Castro
• Forward: Helinho, Jesús Angulo, Paulinho

Defensively, Federico Pereira and Jesús Gallardo need to maintain a solid backline to thwart Puebla’s attacking threats. Gallardo, known for his pace and tackling, will be crucial in both defensive duties and supporting forward runs. Together with goalkeeper Luis García, they form the backbone of Toluca’s defence, aiming to secure a clean sheet.

Toluca Tactics and Formation

Toluca Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Expected 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Paulinho
• Midfield Engine: Franco Romero and Marcel Ruiz
• Defensive Line: Diego Barbosa and Jesús Gallardo
• Recent Performance: Two clean sheets in the last five games

Toluca’s approach in their recent matches has been characterised by a flexible 4-3-3 formation, allowing them to adapt effectively both offensively and defensively. The midfield trio of Franco Romero, Marcel Ruiz, and Santiago Simón provides a dynamic balance of creativity and work rate, crucial for both ball retention and breaking opposition lines.

Defensively, the full-backs Diego Barbosa and Jesús Gallardo play pivotal roles in offering width and supporting the attack, while Federico Pereira and Everardo Del Villar command the central defence. This setup has contributed to Toluca achieving two clean sheets in their last five outings, emphasising their defensive resilience.

Offensively, Toluca rely on the striking prowess of Paulinho, supported by wingers Jesús Angulo and Pavel Pérez. The front three’s pressing and ability to exploit spaces make them a potent threat, especially during transitions, which will be essential against a robust Puebla side.

Puebla vs Toluca Head-to-Head Record

In their head-to-head record, Toluca have dominated with 26 wins compared to Puebla’s 12, alongside 12 draws. The last encounter saw Toluca triumph 3-1 at home during the Liga MX Apertura. It’s clear that Toluca have had the upper hand in recent meetings, often securing decisive victories.

The last time Puebla hosted Toluca, they suffered a 0-3 defeat in the Liga MX Clausura. This pattern of Toluca’s strong performances away from home could be a key factor for bettors to consider.

Home Side	Away Side	Score	League	Date
Toluca	Puebla	3 – 1	Liga MX Opening	2025-09-14
Puebla	Toluca	0 – 3	Liga MX Closing	2025-03-15
Toluca	Puebla	5 – 0	Liga MX Opening	2024-10-23
Puebla	Toluca	1 – 1	Liga MX Closing	2024-01-27
Toluca	Puebla	0 – 1	Liga MX Opening	2023-11-01