okt. 08, 2021 09:23
Newcastle Stats & Analysis
Newcastle continued their winless start to the season last time out. The Magpies lost 2-1 to Wolves in their final Premier League fixture before the international break. They equalised in that match against Wolves but ultimately lost out. That’s something that has been a regular theme this season. Newcastle have lost eight points from winning or drawing positions this season.
The Magpies have conceded too many goals. No side has conceded more Premier League goals than Newcastle this season. They let in more goals in the first four matches of this season than they did in the 10 before then.
It’s not a statistical flook. Newcastle have the highest expected goals against figure in the Premier League this season. Their xGA is 13.92 and they’ve conceded 16. Norwich’s xGA is lower at 13.46.
Tottenham Stats & Analysis
Tottenham have a similar problem. They too have allowed their opponents to score too often this season. Spurs started the campaign with three straight clean sheets but have conceded 10 goals in the four matches since then. The 2-1 win over Aston Villa before the international break did end a three-game losing streak.
They’re allowing their opponents too many shots on goal. Spurs have faced an average of 16.6 shots per goal this season. Only Leeds have allowed more at 16.7 per match. Newcastle are in 3rd place in that particular table with an average of 16.4 shots against per match.
Forward Harry Kane is yet to register a goal or an assist in the Premier League. He had six goals and eight assists at this point last season. The England man isn’t getting into the right positions. He’s had 15 shots on goal this campaign but has an xG of 1.54 from those shots. Over 40 Premier League players have a higher xG figure than Kane this season. That’s staggering considering his performance last season.
Newcastle vs Tottenham Prediction
Newcastle are very much the outsiders here. They’re at 3.88 to secure the victory and their first three points of the season. A draw is 3.80 and Tottenham are out at 2.07 to get their second successive league win.
The Magpies have a decent record against Spurs. They’ve only lost one of their last four Premier League matches against them. The sides shared the points in both their league fixtures last season.
One interesting trend about the past matches between these sides is the number of goals. There was an average of 3.33 total match goals in their last three meetings. That is especially true of the matches at St. James’ Park. That figure goes up to 3.75 goals per match when looking at the last eight matches in Newcastle. Over 2.5 goals here is 1.82 but over 3.5 has value at 3.00.
If the goals start going in then Harry Kane will aim to get one. It’s a good opportunity for the England captain to break his duck against a Newcastle side that invites pressure. It’s 4.70 for Kane to grab the first goal of the match.
Newcastle vs Tottenham Prediction: Over 3.5 Goals at 3.00. 5/10 Stakes.