Brighton vs. Newcastle Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 4 May 2025 - bettingexpert
As we head into the penultimate rounds of the Premier League season, Brighton will host Newcastle at The American Express Community Stadium on 4 May 2025, with a 14:00 kickoff. Brighton, sitting 9th with 51 points, will look to maintain their top-half position. Meanwhile, Newcastle, in 3rd place with 62 points, are eyeing a strong finish to secure European competition for next season.
Referee Craig Pawson takes the helm for a match with significant implications for both sides. Newcastle’s recent form has been impressive (WLWWW), scoring an average of 3.20 goals per game and keeping three clean sheets in their last five encounters. In contrast, Brighton has struggled defensively, unable to keep a clean sheet in their previous five matches (WLDLL).
Important to note is that Brighton’s manager, Fabian Hürzeler, has recently defended his goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen amid criticism from fans. Newcastle’s Alexander Isak, who has been linked with a potential summer move to Liverpool, remains a key figure, with 22 goals this season.
Considering Newcastle’s recent offensive prowess and Brighton’s defensive frailties, a bet on Newcastle -1.5 Asian Handicap is recommended, aligning with their current form and attacking strength. This prediction seems feasible given Brighton’s defensive vulnerabilities and Newcastle’s necessity to establish early control of the game.
Brighton vs Newcastle Prediction & Betting Tip
Given Newcastle’s recent form and Brighton’s defensive struggles, our recommended betting tip is to take Newcastle -1.5 Asian Handicap. This prediction leverages Newcastle’s impressive attack and Brighton’s vulnerabilities at the back.
| Brighton vs Newcastle Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| Newcastle -1.5 Asian Handicap | 2.30 |
- Newcastle’s attack has been on fire, scoring an average of 3.20 goals per game in their last five matches.
- Brighton has not kept a clean sheet in their last five games and often concedes late goals, particularly in the intervals of 76-90 and 0-15 minutes.
- Newcastle needs an early and commanding lead to comfortably cover the handicap, and their recent form suggests they are more than capable.
With Alexander Isak in excellent form, this bet looks promising!
Brighton vs Newcastle Odds
For the upcoming fixture, bookmakers favor Newcastle to come away with a win at The American Express Community Stadium. Here’s a quick look at the betting odds:
| Brighton vs Newcastle Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| Brighton | 2.85 |
| Draw | 3.71 |
| Newcastle | 2.30 |
Newcastle is riding a high with solid form, making their odds more attractive for punters. Meanwhile, Brighton’s defensive frailties are reflected in their longer odds for victory. If you prefer a riskier bet, the draw offers substantial returns, though Newcastle’s firepower suggests they could edge out the Seagulls.
Brighton Team Analysis
Brighton Recent Performance
Brighton has been struggling for consistency in recent weeks, as reflected in their recent form with one win, one draw, and three losses.
| Brighton | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | West Ham | 2025-04-26 | Premier League | 3-2 (Win) |
| Brentford | Brighton | 2025-04-19 | Premier League | 4-2 (Loss) |
| Brighton | Leicester | 2025-04-12 | Premier League | 2-2 (Draw) |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton | 2025-04-05 | Premier League | 2-1 (Loss) |
| Brighton | Aston Villa | 2025-04-02 | Premier League | 0-3 (Loss) |
Recent Form: WLDLL
Brighton’s vulnerability in defense is evident as they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five games, conceding an average of 3 goals per match. Going forward, they have managed to score an average of 1.60 goals per game, showing some offensive capability.
Despite their mixed results, Brighton remains resilient in attack but will need to tighten up defensively if they hope to secure points against a strong Newcastle side.
Brighton Key Players
Brighton’s key players will be crucial in this matchup against Newcastle. With Joao Pedro suspended, the onus is on Danny Welbeck to lead the attack. Welbeck’s experience and recent form will be pivotal.
Expected lineup for Brighton:
- Goalkeeper: Bart Verbruggen
- Defenders: Mats Wieffer, Lewis Dunk, Carlos Baleba, Pervis Estupinan
- Midfielders: Yasin Ayari, Jack Hinshelwood, Solly March, Matt O’Riley, Simon Adingra
- Striker: Danny Welbeck
Brighton’s captain, Lewis Dunk, will have to marshal the defense against Newcastle’s potent attack, led by the formidable Alexander Isak. In midfield, the young talents of Yasin Ayari and Matt O’Riley will need to step up to control the game’s tempo.
Clash to watch: Danny Welbeck vs Fabian Schär – a battle of experience and defensive prowess that could dictate the game’s outcome.
Brighton Suspensions & Injuries
Brighton faces a challenging situation with multiple players unavailable due to injuries and a key suspension impacting team preparations.
Injuries:
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| James Milner | Hamstring Injury | Late May 2025 |
| Joel Veltman | Virus | Few days |
| Ferdi Kadioglu | Toe injury | Mid May 2025 |
| Igor | Thigh injury | Early June 2025 |
| Adam Webster | Thigh injury | Doubtful |
| Georginio Rutter | Ankle injury | Late May 2025 |
Suspensions:
| Player | Suspension | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Joao Pedro | Red card | Banned matches left: 3 |
Joao Pedro’s suspension leaves a significant gap up front, while veteran James Milner’s absence will also be keenly felt in midfield. With key defenders like Adam Webster and Igor doubtful, Brighton’s defense faces added pressure.
Brighton Tactics and Formation
Brighton Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 4-2-3-1
- Key Forward: Danny Welbeck
- Midfield Duo: Yasin Ayari, Jack Hinshelwood
- Defensive Setup: Mats Wieffer, Lewis Dunk, Carlos Baleba, Pervis Estupiñán
- Notable Strategy: Emphasis on maintaining possession and creating opportunities from the flanks, with Solly March and Simon Adingra providing width and pace.
Expect Brighton to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on a solid defensive base despite clean sheets eluding them recently. With Danny Welbeck leading the attack, they’ll aim to create chances through quick transitions and precise crosses from the flanks. João Pedro’s absence will test their depth and ability to convert opportunities.
Newcastle Team Analysis
Newcastle Recent Performance
Newcastle have been in impressive form recently, securing four wins out of their last five Premier League matches. Their ability to score goals has been remarkable, averaging 3.20 goals per game over this period, while also managing three clean sheets. Here’s a closer look at their recent results:
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | Ipswich | 2025-04-26 | Premier League | 3-0 (Win) |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle | 2025-04-19 | Premier League | 4-1 (Loss) |
| Newcastle | Crystal Palace | 2025-04-16 | Premier League | 5-0 (Win) |
| Newcastle | Manchester United | 2025-04-13 | Premier League | 4-1 (Win) |
| Leicester | Newcastle | 2025-04-07 | Premier League | 0-3 (Win) |
Newcastle’s ability to score in bursts, particularly between the 31st and 45th minutes, has been a defining characteristic this season. Their resolute defense, led by Nick Pope, has also contributed significantly to their success. With a third-place standing and motivated by their recent form, Eddie Howe’s side will be looking to continue their push towards securing a Champions League spot.
Newcastle Key Players
Newcastle’s squad boasts some formidable talent that has been instrumental in their successful season. Alexander Isak, with 22 goals, stands out as their top scorer, and his ability to find the back of the net will be crucial against a Brighton side struggling defensively. Other key performers include Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali, who have been pivotal in controlling the midfield. Their battle against Brighton’s midfielders will likely be a determining factor in the game. In defense, Kieran Trippier’s experience and leadership, alongside Fabian Schär, will be vital in keeping Brighton’s attackers at bay.
Expected lineup for Newcastle:
- Goalkeeper: Nick Pope
- Defenders: Kieran Trippier, Fabian Schär, Dan Burn, Valentino Livramento
- Midfielders: Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali, Joseph Willock
- Forwards: Jacob Murphy, Alexander Isak, Harvey Barnes
Newcastle Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Lascelles | Cruciate ligament injury | Late May 2025 |
| Lewis Hall | Ankle injury | Late June 2025 |
| Joelinton | Knee injury | Doubtful |
Although Newcastle have no suspensions heading into this match, they do have a few key injuries. The absence of Jamaal Lascelles and Lewis Hall could impact their defensive depth. Joelinton’s knee injury and his potential absence could affect their midfield’s resilience and creativity. Eddie Howe will need to ensure his squad remains focused and adapts to these setbacks efficiently to maintain their strong form against Brighton.
Newcastle Tactics and Formation
Newcastle’s Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 4-3-3
- Key Forward: Alexander Isak
- Midfield Trio: Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali, Joseph Willock
- Defensive Strength: Three clean sheets in their last five games.
- Notable Strategy: Strong attack during the 31-45-minute interval.
Newcastle have been making the 4-3-3 formation work brilliantly under Eddie Howe. Up front, Alexander Isak, the top scorer with 22 goals, leads the attack alongside Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes. Their midfield, orchestrated by Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali, and Joseph Willock, ensures both creativity and solidity.
Defensively, they have been resilient, securing three clean sheets in the last five matches. The full-backs, Kieran Trippier and Valentino Livramento, provide width and support in attack. Expect them to exploit Brighton’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly capitalizing on their scoring prowess in the 31-45-minute window.
Brighton vs Newcastle Head-to-Head Statistics
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2025-03-02 | FA Cup | 1-1 (Extra time: 0-1) |
| Newcastle United | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2024-10-19 | Premier League | 0-1 (Loss) |
| Newcastle United | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2024-05-11 | Premier League | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Newcastle United | 2023-09-02 | Premier League | 3-1 (Win) |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Newcastle United | 2023-07-28 | Club Friendlies | 1-2 (Loss) |
Brighton and Newcastle have had several closely contested matches over the past few seasons. In their last five encounters, Brighton have managed to secure two wins, compared to Newcastle’s one victory, with two matches ending in a draw. Brighton’s notable win came in March 2025 during an FA Cup face-off that went into extra time, showcasing their grit and determination.
Expect a competitive and intense match as both teams look to build on their recent performances and secure crucial points at this stage in the Premier League season.
Odds accurate as of 02.05.2025 14:01, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.
