Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Sunday, March 22nd

In the Premier League clash this Sunday, March 22nd, Newcastle will face Sunderland at the iconic St James’ Park. This match, dubbed the Tyne-Wear derby, is always a highlight in the football calendar, bringing intense rivalry and passionate performances from both sides. As we delve into this prediction, match preview, and betting tips, it’s essential to consider the form and strategies of both teams as they compete for regional bragging rights.

Newcastle, playing at home, will aim to leverage their familiarity with St James’ Park to secure a crucial victory. Meanwhile, Sunderland, eager to upset their rivals, will look to capitalise on any defensive lapses. The outcome of this fixture could significantly impact the standings in the Premier League, making it a must-watch for fans and bettors alike. Stay tuned as we explore the potential outcomes and key players who might influence the result of this eagerly anticipated encounter.

Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction & Betting tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Newcastle to Win	1.66

Given Newcastle’s recent form and Sunderland’s struggles, our recommended betting tip is for Newcastle to win. Newcastle’s back-to-back victories, including an away win at Chelsea, highlight their strong form. On the other hand, Sunderland’s poor run, with just one win in their last five games, suggests they might struggle, particularly away from home.

• Newcastle’s current form is impressive with consecutive victories against tough opponents like Manchester United and Chelsea.
• Sunderland’s away performance has been weak, managing only 8 goals away from home all season.
• Sunderland’s recent form shows a dip, winning just once in their last five matches, making Newcastle the favourites.

Newcastle’s home advantage is significant, having won 8 Premier League matches on home soil this season.

Betting Odds

Newcastle are stepping onto the pitch at St James’ Park as the favourites with odds of 1.66, reflecting their strong home form. Sunderland, on the other hand, are seen as the underdogs with odds of 5.03, but they could surprise given the intensity of this local derby.

Betting Tip	Odds
Newcastle Victory	1.66
Match Draw	3.89
Sunderland Victory	5.03

A draw is priced at 3.89, which might tempt some punters considering the unpredictable nature of derby matches. For those looking at alternative markets, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals could offer value, especially given the attacking intent both sides have shown in recent fixtures.

Newcastle Analysis & Past Performance

Newcastle’s recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, with two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches. A notable victory against Chelsea (1-0) showed their ability to compete at a high level, but a heavy defeat to Barcelona (2-7) highlighted defensive vulnerabilities.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Barcelona	Newcastle	7 – 2 (Loss)	Champions League Final Stage	18 Mar, 2026
Chelsea	Newcastle	0 – 1 (Win)	Premier League	14 Mar, 2026
Newcastle	Barcelona	1 – 1 (Draw)	Champions League Final Stage	10 Mar, 2026
Newcastle	Manchester City	1 – 3 (Loss)	FA Cup	7 Mar, 2026
Newcastle	Manchester United	2 – 1 (Win)	Premier League	4 Mar, 2026

Recent Form:
In their last five games, Newcastle averaged 1.40 goals scored per match while conceding an average of 2.40 goals. They managed to score in all five matches, indicating offensive consistency, but their defence has been less reliable, with only one clean sheet in this period. At home, they’ve won two of their last five, with a win ratio of 40%, which suggests room for improvement in front of their fans.

Key Statistics:

• LWDLW

Newcastle’s top scorer, Bruno Guimarães, has been crucial with a contribution of nine goals this season. However, their defence is a concern, having conceded 12 goals in their last five outings. This defensive fragility could pose challenges ahead, especially against strong attacking teams.

Newcastle Suspensions & Injuries

Newcastle is facing a challenging situation with several key players unavailable due to injuries. The absence of Bruno Guimarães, sidelined with a muscle injury until mid-April, significantly impacts the midfield’s creativity and control. Sandro Tonali’s thigh injury, also keeping him out until mid-April, further depletes Newcastle’s central options, forcing Eddie Howe to rely on alternative strategies.

In defence, Fabian Schär’s ankle injury means Newcastle will miss his experience and leadership at the back until at least mid-April. This opens up opportunities for Malick Thiaw and Sven Botman to step up, but the lack of depth could be a concern if additional defensive injuries occur. Emil Krafth’s long-term knee injury until June adds to the defensive woes, while Lewis Miley’s knee injury until early April limits options in the midfield.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Emil Krafth	knee injury	Early June 2026
Fabian Schär	ankle injury	Mid April 2026
Lewis Miley	knee injury	Early April 2026
Bruno Guimarães	muscle injury	Mid April 2026
Sandro Tonali	thigh injury	Mid April 2026

With these injuries, Newcastle might have to adjust their tactical approach, potentially adopting a more cautious strategy to compensate for the weakened midfield and defence. The reliance on younger or less experienced players could affect their overall performance and impact their odds in the betting markets against Sunderland.

Newcastle Key Players

Newcastle’s attacking prowess heavily relies on Bruno Guimarães, who stands as the team’s top scorer with 9 goals. His ability to find space and score from midfield positions makes him a constant threat. Although Guimarães is not available for this match, his influence is often seen in how Newcastle structures their offensive plays. In his absence, the spotlight turns to Anthony Gordon, who is expected to lead the forward line. Gordon’s pace and ability to stretch defences will be crucial in breaking down Sunderland’s backline.

Jacob Ramsey and Joseph Willock are pivotal in midfield, tasked with dictating the tempo and linking up play between defence and attack. Ramsey’s box-to-box dynamism and Willock’s late runs into the box are tactical elements that could unbalance the opposition. Harvey Barnes, operating on the flank, adds width and creativity, potentially exploiting any gaps in Sunderland’s defence.

Expected lineup for Newcastle:

• Goalkeeper: Aaron Ramsdale
• Defence: Valentino Livramento, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall
• Midfield: Jacob Ramsey, Nick Woltemade, Jacob Murphy, Harvey Barnes, Joseph Willock
• Forward: Anthony Gordon

Newcastle Tactics and Formation

Newcastle Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Anthony Gordon
• Midfield Pivot: Jacob Ramsey and Nick Woltemade
• Defensive Concerns: Only one clean sheet in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on wing play and quick transitions.

Newcastle will likely adopt a 4-2-3-1 formation, which offers both defensive stability and attacking flexibility. The midfield pivot of Jacob Ramsey and Nick Woltemade provides a blend of defensive cover and creative potential. This setup allows Joseph Willock to operate higher up the pitch, linking play with forward Anthony Gordon.

Defensively, the absence of key players like Bruno Guimarães and Fabian Schär due to injury could necessitate tactical adjustments from manager Eddie Howe. Malick Thiaw and Sven Botman form the central defensive partnership, supported by full-backs Valentino Livramento and Lewis Hall. Despite their efforts, the team has struggled defensively, managing just one clean sheet in their last five matches.

Offensively, Newcastle’s strategy often focuses on exploiting the flanks, with wingers Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes providing width and pace. Anthony Gordon, as the lone striker, will be crucial in converting chances, particularly during quick transitions which Newcastle has shown proficiency in executing.

Sunderland Analysis & Past Performance

Sunderland’s recent form has been inconsistent, with just one win in their last five matches across all competitions. Their most recent league outing ended in a disappointing 0-1 loss to Brighton. Notably, they managed a crucial 0-1 victory against Leeds, but this remains their only win in the past five encounters.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Sunderland	Brighton	0 – 1 (Loss)	Premier League	Mar 14, 2026
Port Vale	Sunderland	1 – 0 (Loss)	FA Cup	Mar 8, 2026
Leeds	Sunderland	0 – 1 (Win)	Premier League	Mar 3, 2026
Bournemouth	Sunderland	1 – 1 (Draw)	Premier League	Feb 28, 2026
Sunderland	Fulham	1 – 3 (Loss)	Premier League	Feb 22, 2026

Recent Form:

• LLWDL

In terms of scoring, Sunderland has struggled, averaging just 0.60 goals per game over their last five matches, with a total of 3 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their defence has shown vulnerabilities, keeping only one clean sheet in this period. Away from home, they have a slightly better record, with 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw in their last five away games, reflecting a win ratio of 0.40. They sit in 13th place in the league with 40 points, highlighting a need for improved consistency to climb the table.

Sunderland Suspensions & Injuries

With Sunderland facing Newcastle, the absence of several players due to injuries could impact their tactical flexibility and depth. Daniel Ballard’s hamstring injury, keeping him out until mid-December, necessitates a defensive reshuffle, with Dennis Cirkin stepping into the lineup. Reinildo Mandava’s knee injury, still marked as doubtful, leaves Sunderland without a potential key defensive option. The absence of Nordi Mukiele and Robin Roefs due to calf and hamstring injuries respectively, until late March, further compounds the defensive challenges.

In midfield, the injury to Jocelin Ta Bi, expected back in mid-April, may not be immediately felt thanks to the presence of Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki, who provide stability. Bertrand Traoré’s knee injury, sidelining him until early May, and Nilson Angulo’s muscle issue, out until late April, will limit attacking rotations, placing more pressure on Brian Brobbey to deliver up front.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Daniel Ballard	hamstring injury	Mid-December 2023
Reinildo Mandava	knee injury	Doubtful
Jocelin Ta Bi	knock	Mid-April 2026
Nordi Mukiele	calf injury	Late March 2026
Romaine Mundle	hamstring injury	Late May 2026
Robin Roefs	hamstring injury	Late March 2026
Bertrand Traoré	knee injury	Early May 2026
Nilson Angulo	muscle injury	Late April 2026
Enzo Le Fée	knock	Doubtful

Given these injuries, Sunderland’s tactical adjustments will likely focus on solidifying their defence and maintaining a compact midfield. The reliance on the available starters will be crucial to navigating this period, and betting markets might view Sunderland’s chances as slightly diminished due to these absences. The team’s ability to cope without key figures will be pivotal against a strong Newcastle side.

Sunderland Key Players

Sunderland’s attacking prowess will be spearheaded by Brian Brobbey, the team’s top scorer with 5 goals this season. Brobbey’s ability to find spaces behind defences and his clinical finishing make him a constant threat to Newcastle’s backline. His role as the lone forward requires him to hold up play effectively and capitalise on any chances created by Sunderland’s midfield.

In midfield, Granit Xhaka’s experience and leadership are invaluable. His ability to control the tempo and distribute the ball will be crucial in dictating Sunderland’s play. Alongside him, Chris Rigg and Habib Diarra add youthful exuberance and energy, ensuring a dynamic midfield presence that can both disrupt Newcastle’s rhythm and support Brobbey in attack. Defensively, Lutsharel Geertruida and Dennis Cirkin will be key in maintaining solidity and providing width.

Expected lineup for Sunderland:

• Goalkeeper: Melker Ellborg
• Defence: Lutsharel Geertruida, Dennis Cirkin, Omar Alderete, Trai Hume
• Midfield: Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Chris Rigg, Habib Diarra, Chemsdine Talbi
• Forward: Brian Brobbey

Sunderland Tactics and Formation

Sunderland Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Brian Brobbey
• Midfield Pivot: Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki
• Defensive Strength: Solid defensive line, though only one clean sheet in the last five games.
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on midfield control and quick transitions.

Sunderland’s 4-2-3-1 formation allows them to maintain a balance between attack and defence. The experienced Granit Xhaka alongside Noah Sadiki provides a resilient midfield pivot, crucial for both breaking up opposition play and initiating Sunderland’s offensive moves. Chris Rigg, Habib Diarra, and Chemsdine Talbi form the attacking midfield line, supporting lone striker Brian Brobbey.

Defensively, Sunderland is structured with a backline consisting of Lutsharel Geertruida, Dennis Cirkin, Omar Alderete, and Trai Hume. Melker Ellborg, the goalkeeper, has been instrumental despite the team keeping only one clean sheet in their last five outings. The absence of Daniel Ballard might require tactical adjustments, potentially affecting defensive cohesion.

Offensively, Sunderland focuses on quick transitions, leveraging the pace and creativity of their midfielders to support Brobbey, their top scorer with 5 goals. This strategy aims to exploit any defensive lapses by opponents and create goal-scoring opportunities, although recent performances indicate a need for improved finishing.

Newcastle vs Sunderland H2H Record

The head-to-head record between Newcastle and Sunderland is as balanced as it gets, with both teams winning 9 times each and 9 matches ending in draws. Their last encounter saw Sunderland edge out a 1-0 victory at home in the Premier League, showing they can still pull off a win in this fierce rivalry.

When it comes to Premier League clashes, the H2H is equally matched, but Newcastle will be keen to leverage their home advantage at St James’ Park, where they last hosted Sunderland in 2016, resulting in a 1-1 draw. This fixture always promises drama, with both sides eager to tip the scales in their favour.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Sunderland	Newcastle United	1 – 0	Premier League	2025-12-14
Sunderland	Newcastle United	0 – 3	FA Cup	2024-01-06
Newcastle United	Sunderland	1 – 1	Premier League	2016-03-20
Sunderland	Newcastle United	3 – 0	Premier League	2015-10-25
Sunderland	Newcastle United	1 – 0	Premier League	2015-04-05