Toulouse vs Nice: Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips – Saturday, 17 January

Toulouse welcome Nice to the Stadium Municipal for a highly anticipated Ligue 1 clash on Saturday, 17 January. This match promises to be a captivating encounter as both teams look to secure crucial points in the league standings. Toulouse, playing at home, will aim to make the most of their familiarity with the Stadium Municipal to gain an advantage over their visitors. Meanwhile, Nice will be eager to challenge their hosts and potentially climb higher in the Ligue 1 table.

The significance of this match cannot be understated, as both Toulouse and Nice are keen to solidify their positions in the league. Toulouse’s home advantage could play a pivotal role, but Nice’s form on the road has been commendable this season. As we delve into this prediction, match preview, and betting tips, it’s clear that both teams have much at stake, making this a must-watch fixture for fans and bettors alike.

Toulouse vs Nice: Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Toulouse to win	1.91

Considering the recent form and match facts, our recommended betting tip is to back Toulouse to win. Toulouse’s home performances have been consistent, while Nice have struggled significantly in their recent away games.

• Toulouse have been strong at home with a balanced record, showing resilience and the ability to score crucial goals.
• Nice have a poor away record, losing their last four away matches and showing a lack of form on the road.
• Fewer than 2.5 goals have been scored in 78% of recent encounters, indicating a tight match where Toulouse’s slight edge at home could be decisive.

Betting Odds

Toulouse step onto their home turf at the Stadium Municipal as favourites, with betting odds of 1.91 reflecting confidence in their ability to secure a win. Nice, meanwhile, are seen as the underdogs at 3.9, but they could offer a rewarding return for those backing an upset.

Betting Tip	Odds
Back Toulouse to win	1.91
Go for a Draw	3.54
Back Nice to win	3.9

The draw is priced at 3.54, indicating a competitive match where neither side might easily dominate. For punters, exploring the over 2.5 goals market could be worthwhile, given both teams’ potential to find the net.

Toulouse: Analysis & Recent Performance

Toulouse have shown commendable resilience in recent outings, securing victories in four of their last five fixtures across all competitions. Notably, their thrilling 7-6 win against Angers in the Coupe de France highlighted their attacking prowess and fighting spirit.

Home Side	Away Side	Result	Competition	Date
Angers	Toulouse	N/A	French Cup	10 Jan, 2026
Toulouse	Lens	0 – 3 (Loss)	Ligue 1	2 Jan, 2026
Lyon La Duchère	Toulouse	1 – 2 (Win)	French Cup	20 Dec, 2025
Paris FC	Toulouse	0 – 3 (Win)	Ligue 1	13 Dec, 2025
Toulouse	Strasbourg	1 – 0 (Win)	Ligue 1	6 Dec, 2025

Recent Form:
Offensively, Toulouse have been effective, averaging 2.60 goals per match in their last five games, with a total of 13 goals scored during this span. Defensively, they have shown vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per game and keeping two clean sheets. Their win ratio stands at 80%, reflecting their current strong form in both league and cup competitions.

Home Performance:

• WLWWW

At home, however, Toulouse have struggled to find consistency, with a win ratio of only 20% over their last five home matches. They have managed just one win, with two draws and two losses. Their home form contrasts with their overall recent success, indicating a potential area for improvement as they prepare for their upcoming fixture against Nice.

Toulouse: Suspensions & Injuries

Toulouse face a challenging situation with several key players unavailable due to injuries and suspensions. The absence of Abu Francis, who is out for the season with a broken ankle, and Dayann Methalie, recovering from knee surgery until early February, limits their midfield options. Rasmus Nicolaisen’s return is anticipated in about 1–2 weeks, potentially impacting their defensive line in the short term.

Player	Suspension	Matches Remaining	Expected Return
Emerson	Red card	2	Unknown

The suspension of Emerson, who is serving a two-match ban due to a red card, further complicates Toulouse’s defensive setup. This will require tactical adjustments, with coach Carles Martínez likely relying on Mark McKenzie and Charlie Cresswell to maintain stability at the back. The team may need to adopt a more conservative approach to compensate for these absences.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Abu Francis	Broken ankle	Out for season
Dayann Methalie	Knee surgery	Early February 2026
Rasmus Nicolaisen	Unknown	About 1-2 weeks

These unavailabilities could influence Toulouse’s match outcome against Nice, as the team might struggle to maintain their usual tactical fluidity. Bettors should consider the impact of these missing players on Toulouse’s overall performance and depth.

Toulouse: Key Players

Yann Gboho stands out as Toulouse’s top scorer with five goals, bringing a clinical edge to their forward line. His ability to exploit defensive weaknesses and find the back of the net makes him crucial in breaking down Nice’s defence. Partnering with Gboho in attack, Julian Vignolo and Rafik Messali are expected to provide the pace and creativity needed to unlock opportunities. Vignolo’s agility and Messali’s vision enhance Toulouse’s attacking prowess, making them formidable in the final third.

In midfield, Cristian Cásseres Jr. is pivotal, orchestrating play with his passing range and tactical awareness. His role as a playmaker is essential in transitioning the ball from defence to attack efficiently. Defensively, Mark McKenzie and Charlie Cresswell form a resilient partnership, tasked with nullifying Nice’s attacking threats. McKenzie’s aerial dominance and Cresswell’s tackling ability will be key in maintaining defensive solidity.

Expected lineup for Toulouse

• Goalkeeper: Guillaume Restes
• Defence: Mark McKenzie, Charlie Cresswell, Seny Koumbassa
• Midfield: Aron Dønnum, Cristian Cásseres Jr., Alexis Vossah, Djibril Sidibé
• Forward: Julian Vignolo, Yann Gboho, Rafik Messali

Toulouse: Tactics and Formation

Toulouse Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-3
• Key Forward: Yann Gboho
• Midfield Engine: Cristian Cásseres Jr. and Alexis Vossah
• Defensive Setup: Three-man defence featuring Charlie Cresswell
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on wing play with Djibril Sidibé and Aron Dønnum providing width.

Toulouse’s 3-4-3 formation is designed to maximise width and provide dynamic attacking options. With Yann Gboho leading the line, supported by Julian Vignolo and Rafik Messali, the front three are tasked with high pressing and quick transitions. Cristian Cásseres Jr. and Alexis Vossah form the midfield engine, offering both defensive cover and forward support.

Defensively, the three-man backline, including Charlie Cresswell, aims to provide solidity while allowing wing-backs Djibril Sidibé and Aron Dønnum to push forward. This setup can be vulnerable to quick counterattacks, but it offers the advantage of numerical superiority in central areas during possession.

Offensively, Toulouse rely heavily on the width provided by Sidibé and Dønnum, aiming to stretch the opposition and create space for Gboho’s goal-scoring opportunities. Despite recent defensive lapses, the team have managed two clean sheets in their last five games, indicating potential for defensive resilience.

Nice: Analysis & Recent Performance

Nice’s recent form has been mixed, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches. They achieved an impressive 6-4 victory over Nantes in the Coupe de France, showcasing their offensive capabilities. However, their league performances have been less convincing, highlighted by a 2-0 defeat against Lens.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Nantes	Nice	N/A	French Cup	Jan 11, 2026
Nice	Strasbourg	1 – 1 (Draw)	Ligue 1	Jan 3, 2026
Nice	Saint-Étienne	2 – 1 (Win)	French Cup	Dec 21, 2025
Lens	Nice	2 – 0 (Loss)	Ligue 1	Dec 14, 2025
Nice	Braga	0 – 1 (Loss)	Europa League	Dec 11, 2025

Recent Form:
In their past five games, Nice have averaged 1.80 goals scored per match while conceding an equal 1.80 goals on average. Despite scoring in three of these matches, they have failed to keep any clean sheets, indicating potential defensive vulnerabilities.

Away Performance:
Nice’s away form remains a concern, with only one win from their last five away fixtures, resulting in a win ratio of 20%. With an average of 2.40 goals conceded per game during this period, their defensive frailties on the road are apparent.

Team Dynamics:

• WDWLL

The reliance on Sofiane Diop, their top scorer with six goals, underscores the team’s attacking focus. Yet, their inability to maintain defensive solidity, as evidenced by no clean sheets across their recent matches, points to an area needing urgent improvement. Currently, Nice sit 14th in the league, with 18 points, reflecting their inconsistent performances this season.

Nice: Suspensions & Injuries

Nice face a challenging situation as they prepare to take on Toulouse, with several key players sidelined due to injuries. The absence of Mohamed Abdelmonem and Youssouf Ndayishimiye, both suffering from cruciate ligament injuries, is particularly concerning for their defensive setup. Additionally, Moïse Bombito’s broken ankle leaves the team thin at the back, potentially forcing coach Claude Puel to rely more heavily on his starting defenders such as Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga and Melvin Bard.

In midfield, the absence of Sofiane Diop could be felt, but the presence of Morgan Sanson and Tanguy Ndombélé in the starting lineup provides some reassurance in maintaining midfield stability. However, the team will still miss the creative spark of Terem Moffi, whose absence might necessitate a more conservative approach or reliance on Elye Wahi to step up in attack.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Mohamed Abdelmonem	Cruciate ligament injury	Late January 2026
Youssouf Ndayishimiye	Cruciate ligament injury	Late January 2026
Moïse Bombito	Broken ankle	Early February 2026
Dante	Knee injury	Late January 2026

These injuries may affect Nice’s ability to field a fully competitive squad, potentially impacting their tactical flexibility and depth. The lack of suspensions is a small relief, but the injuries could sway betting odds in favour of Toulouse, given Nice’s reduced options and the need for tactical adjustments to cover these key absences.

Nice: Key Players

Sofiane Diop stands out as Nice’s top scorer this season, having netted six goals. His ability to find the back of the net consistently makes him the focal point of their attack. Diop’s style, characterised by quick dribbles and sharp finishing, poses a significant threat to any defence. His role will be pivotal as he looks to exploit any defensive frailties in Toulouse’s backline.

In midfield, the presence of Tanguy Ndombélé is crucial for Nice. Known for his ability to control the game’s tempo, Ndombélé’s vision and passing range will be instrumental in linking defence and attack. Alongside him, Morgan Sanson brings energy and tactical awareness, ensuring Nice maintain dominance in the midfield battles.

Expected lineup for Nice

• Goalkeeper: Maxime Dupé
• Defence: Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga, Jonathan Clauss, Juma Bah, Melvin Bard
• Midfield: Everton, Tiago Gouveia, Morgan Sanson, Tanguy Ndombélé, Elye Wahi
• Forward: Mohamed-Ali Cho

Defensively, Jonathan Clauss and Melvin Bard are key figures. Clauss’s overlapping runs and Bard’s defensive solidity provide Nice with both attacking width and defensive stability. Their ability to contribute at both ends of the pitch will be vital in countering Toulouse’s attacking threats. Together, these players form the backbone of Nice’s tactical approach, balancing both defensive resilience and attacking prowess.

Nice: Tactics and Formation

Nice Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-1-4-1
• Key Forward: Mohamed-Ali Cho
• Midfield Engine: Tanguy Ndombélé
• Defensive Concerns: No clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on midfield control and counterattacks.

Nice are expected to line up in a 4-1-4-1 formation under Claude Puel, focusing on maintaining a solid midfield presence. Tanguy Ndombélé plays a crucial role in transitioning play from defence to attack, supported by Morgan Sanson and Tiago Gouveia in more advanced midfield roles. This setup aims to dominate the midfield battles while allowing for swift counterattacks.

Defensively, the absence of key players such as Sofiane Diop could impact their stability, as they have struggled to keep clean sheets recently. The back four, consisting of Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga, Jonathan Clauss, Juma Bah, and Melvin Bard, will need to be particularly vigilant against Toulouse’s forward threats.

Offensively, Mohamed-Ali Cho is tasked with leading the line, supported by the pace and creativity of Elye Wahi on the wings. Nice will look to exploit spaces left by Toulouse, particularly targeting the flanks for quick transitions and counterattacks.

Toulouse vs Nice: Head-to-Head Record

Toulouse and Nice have faced off 47 times, with Nice slightly ahead in the head-to-head record with 17 wins compared to Toulouse’s 14, and 17 matches ending in a draw. The last encounter saw Toulouse snatch a 1-0 victory away at Nice in August 2025, a solid win in their Ligue 1 campaign.

The last time Toulouse hosted Nice at the Stadium Municipal was in February 2025, resulting in a 1-1 draw. Toulouse will be looking to leverage their home advantage this time around, although Nice’s overall edge in the head-to-head suggests it could be a tight contest.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Nice	Toulouse	0 – 1	Ligue 1	2025-08-16
Toulouse	Nice	1 – 1	Ligue 1	2025-02-02
Nice	Toulouse	1 – 1	Ligue 1	2024-08-25
Toulouse	Nice	2 – 1	Ligue 1	2024-03-03
Nice	Toulouse	1 – 0	Ligue 1	2023-11-26