São Paulo vs. Palmeiras Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 5 October 2025

Set for 5 October 2025 at 20:00, the clash between São Paulo and Palmeiras at Estádio do Morumbi promises plenty of action in this crucial Serie A match. Palmeiras currently hold the advantage in terms of league standings and form, sitting comfortably in second place with 52 points, whereas São Paulo is in 7th with 38 points.

Palmeiras are coming off a dominant 3-0 win against Vasco, highlighting the decisive partnership of Flaco López and top scorer Vitor Roque. On the other hand, São Paulo’s 2-0 win over Fortaleza provided a much-needed boost after a series of setbacks.

However, São Paulo face several injury woes. The likes of Jonathan Calleri, Ryan Francisco, and André Silva are sidelined, creating a challenging situation for coach Hernán Crespo. Palmeiras, led by Abel Ferreira, also have injury concerns but possess a deeper squad to manage these setbacks.

Given Palmeiras’ recent form, including four wins in the last five matches and a strong goal average, they are the bookmakers’ favourites to win with odds of 2.29. São Paulo, despite their home advantage, are less likely to secure a win, coming in at 3.30 odds. Recommended bet: Palmeiras to Win.

Don’t miss this exciting encounter that could see Palmeiras tighten their grip on a title challenge, while São Paulo aim for crucial points to remain in the hunt for higher league positions.

São Paulo vs Palmeiras Prediction & Betting tip

São Paulo vs Palmeiras Prediction
Betting tip
Palmeiras to Win – Odds: 2.20

Let’s back Palmeiras to win this one. Here’s why:

• Palmeiras are in fantastic form, boasting 16 wins and only 4 losses, compared to São Paulo’s inconsistent performances.
• Key injuries plague São Paulo, weakening their squad significantly, with vital players like Jonathan Calleri and Lucas Moura sidelined.
• The head-to-head record is solidly in Palmeiras’ favour, with two wins and a draw in their last three encounters.

Given these factors, Palmeiras are indeed the favourites, and at odds of 2.20, the value is hard to ignore. Whether you’re a die-hard fan or a casual viewer, this seems like the smart bet for an exciting match.

São Paulo vs Palmeiras Odds

São Paulo vs Palmeiras Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
São Paulo	3.30
Draw	3.02
Palmeiras	2.29

The odds reflect the current form and league standings of both teams. Palmeiras, sitting comfortably in second place with 52 points, are the favourites at 2.29. São Paulo, who are in 7th place with 38 points, have odds of 3.30, highlighting their struggle for consistency amid numerous injuries.

A draw, considered a middle-ground outcome, comes in at odds of 3.02. Given Palmeiras’ recent dominant performances and solid head-to-head record, betting on them looks like a smart choice.

However, don’t discount the unpredictability of São Paulo playing at home, where they might spring a surprise.

São Paulo Team Analysis

São Paulo Recent Performance

São Paulo’s recent form has been a mixed bag, with just one win in their last five matches (LLLLW). They managed a vital 2-0 victory over Fortaleza, which was a stark contrast to their previous four games, where they suffered defeats.

Their offensive struggles are evident, averaging just 0.40 goals per game in the last five matches. Defensively, they have only kept one clean sheet during this period. The absence of key players due to injuries, such as Jonathan Calleri and Lucas Moura, has compounded their challenges.

Coach Hernán Crespo has his work cut out as São Paulo looks to find consistency and improve their league standing. Their next match could be pivotal in determining their fight for a higher spot in Serie A.

São Paulo Key Players

São Paulo’s attack will lean heavily on their top scorer Andre, who has netted 5 goals this season. However, with Jonathan Calleri unavailable, additional pressure falls on forwards Aldemir Ferreira and Luciano to step up. Midfield support from Pablo Maia and Rodriguinho will be crucial for creating goal-scoring opportunities.

In defense, the trio of Robert Arboleda, Alan Franco, and Sabino will need to be solid to counter Palmeiras’ potent offense, especially from the likes of Vitor Roque. Goalkeeper Rafael will also have his hands full and will need to be at his best.

Expected lineup for São Paulo:

• Goalkeeper: Rafael
• Defenders: Robert Arboleda, Alan Franco, Sabino
• Midfielders: Cedric Soares, Damián Bobadilla, Pablo Maia, Rodriguinho, Enzo Díaz
• Forwards: Aldemir Ferreira, Luciano

Expect individual battles, particularly between São Paulo’s defenders and Palmeiras’ attacking force led by Vitor Roque, to define the outcome.

São Paulo Suspensions & Injuries

São Paulo are currently plagued by a significant injury list, which could severely impact their performance against Palmeiras. Jonathan Calleri, Ryan Francisco, and André Silva are all sidelined with cruciate ligament injuries, with returns expected only next season. Luan Santos and Nahuel Ferraresi are dealing with thigh and groin injuries respectively, and might return mid-October. Rafael Toloi and Lucas Moura are also out, with potential returns later this month and a few days, respectively.

Moreover, Emiliano Rigoni is suspended due to a red card, adding to São Paulo’s woes. These absences will likely force coach Hernán Crespo to make several adjustments to his lineup, significantly weakening both their attack and defense. The team’s depth will be tested as they look to cope with these challenges.

São Paulo Tactics and Formation

São Paulo Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-5-2
• Key Forward: Andre
• Midfield Strength: Pablo Maia, Damián Bobadilla, Rodriguinho
• Defensive Setup: Robert Arboleda, Alan Franco, Sabino

With a 3-5-2 formation, São Paulo will look to control the midfield and provide width with Cedric Soares and Enzo Díaz operating as wing-backs. This setup aims to counter Palmeiras’ attacking threat by flooding the midfield and creating opportunities for quick transitions.

Given their recent struggles in front of goal, averaging just 0.40 goals per game over the last five matches, the midfielders’ role in supporting the attack will be crucial.

Defensively, the trio led by Arboleda offers stability, and with Rafael in goal, São Paulo aims to improve their defensive record. However, the absence of key players due to injuries and suspensions might force coach Hernán Crespo into tactical adjustments, particularly in maintaining their structure and resilience against a high-flying Palmeiras side.

Palmeiras Team Analysis

Palmeiras Recent Performance

Palmeiras are currently in exceptional form, evidenced by their recent performances, showcasing four wins and one loss in their last five matches (WWLW). Their latest fixture saw them dominate Vasco with a 3-0 victory, emphasizing their offensive prowess.

On average, Palmeiras have scored an impressive 2.40 goals per game in their last five matches, indicating a robust attacking unit. Defensively, they have kept one clean sheet during this period, maintaining a sturdy backline.

Abel Ferreira’s squad is in peak condition, climbing to second place in Serie A with 52 points. Their solid form, coupled with a depth in squad quality, positions them as strong contenders for the upcoming clash against São Paulo. The continuity in their recent winning ways will definitely boost their confidence heading into this match.

Palmeiras Key Players

Palmeiras’ attacking spearhead is undeniably their top scorer, Vitor Roque, who has netted nine goals this season. Alongside him, Flaco López has been instrumental, providing both goals and assists, especially in their recent thumping of Vasco. At midfield, Andreas Pereira and Raphael Veiga pull the strings, creating opportunities and controlling the tempo of the game.

In defense, Gustavo Gomez and Murilo Cerqueira form a resilient partnership, ensuring stability at the back. Joaquín Piquerez, although nursing a slight knock, is expected to feature and provide width as a left-back, aiding both defensive duties and attacking ventures.

Expected lineup for Palmeiras:

• Goalkeeper: Weverton
• Defenders: Agustin Giay, Gustavo Gomez, Murilo Cerqueira, Joaquín Piquerez
• Midfielders: Anibal Moreno, Andreas Pereira, Raphael Veiga, José Manuel López, Felipe Anderson
• Forward: Vitor Roque

Watch out for key individual battles, especially between Vitor Roque and São Paulo’s defenders, which could be decisive in the match.

Palmeiras Suspensions & Injuries

Palmeiras are currently managing a few injury issues that could impact their lineup against São Paulo. Key midfielder Lucas Evangelista is out for the rest of the season due to a thigh injury, which might necessitate surgical intervention. This could see coach Abel Ferreira making tactical adjustments to fill the gap left by Evangelista.

Additionally, left-back Joaquín Piquerez is also nursing a knee knock, and his participation remains uncertain. If he is unable to play, Jefté is expected to step in as a replacement.

These injury concerns mean Palmeiras will need to leverage their squad depth. Fortunately, they are not facing any suspensions, which allows them to field their strongest available lineup in pursuit of maintaining their excellent form in Serie A.

Palmeiras Tactics and Formation

Palmeiras Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Vitor Roque
• Midfield Trio: Anibal Moreno, Andreas Pereira, Raphael Veiga
• Defensive Pairing: Gustavo Gomez, Murilo Cerqueira

Palmeiras will likely stick to their tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation, which offers a balance between solid defense and potent attack. Vitor Roque, their top scorer, will spearhead the attack with Felipe Anderson and Raphael Veiga providing support from the flanks and central midfield.

The presence of Moreno and Pereira in holding midfield roles ensures both defensive cover and transitional play.

Defensively, Gomez and Cerqueira form a steadfast partnership, aided by full-backs Agustin Giay and possibly Jefté stepping in for Piquerez if he isn’t fit enough to play.

This cohesive setup has been instrumental in their recent exploits, averaging 2.40 goals per game while maintaining a robust defense.

São Paulo vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head Statistics

In their last five encounters, Palmeiras have proven to be a tough opponent for São Paulo, boasting two wins and two draws. The results are as follows:

• 11 May 2025: Palmeiras 1 – 0 São Paulo (Serie A)
• 11 March 2025: Palmeiras 1 – 0 São Paulo (Paulista A1 Playoff)
• 16 February 2025: Palmeiras 0 – 0 São Paulo (Paulista A1)
• 18 August 2024: Palmeiras 2 – 1 São Paulo (Serie A)
• 29 April 2024: São Paulo 0 – 0 Palmeiras (Serie A)

This head-to-head record clearly indicates Palmeiras’ superiority in recent clashes. São Paulo have struggled to break down Palmeiras’ defense, with Palmeiras keeping three clean sheets in these matchups.

The upcoming match will be another test for São Paulo as they look to buck the trend and secure a much-needed win at home. Conversely, Palmeiras will aim to continue their dominance and capitalize on São Paulo’s recent inconsistency.

Odds accurate as of 03/10/2025 20:01, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.