History Says... Back Profitable Qualifiers at the Euros

Do nations that perform well in their Euro qualification campaigns maintain their profitability in the Euro Championships proper? Or do they falter in the actual tournament? This article examines the profitability of backing successful qualification nations in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets, with a focus on the upcoming 2024 Euros.

In this article:

• Backing Profitable Qualifications Nations: 1X2 Market
• Backing Profitable Qualifications Nations: Asian Handicap Market
• Backing Profitable Qualification Nations for the 2024 Euro

To begin we will consider the performance of nations in the 1X2 market during both Euro qualification group play and the tournament itself. Profitability is determined by the total profit or loss if betting on a nation to win each qualification match at even stakes. Data from Euro 2004 onwards is analysed, adjusted for a standard 4.5% margin, and matches that went into extra time were ruled by the result at regulation time.

Summary of Conclusions:

• Backing nations in the 1X2 market in the Euros that were profitable through qualification group play earned a profit of 7.68%.
• Backing nations in the 1X2 market in the Euros that were profitable through qualification group play was not profitable through the knockout stage.
• Backing nations in the Asian handicap market in the  Euros that were profitable through qualification group play earned a profit of 5.92%..
• Entering the 2024 Euros, a total of 14 nations were profitable through qualification group play.

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But First, bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!

WHAT WILL YOU FIND IN THE GUIDE?

Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:

• Match Result (1X2)
• Handicap Betting
• Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)

Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:

• 8 historical tournament  analysis articles
• 24 team-by-team articles
• BETSiE projections for every team and group
• Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes

For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:

Download the guide

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Backing Profitable Qualification Nations: 1X2 Market

If we had bet on every nation that made a profit in the 1X2 market during Euro qualification, and continued to do so in each corresponding Euro tournament, we would have gained a profit of +9.46 units out of a total of 237 units placed, resulting in a return on investment of +3.99%.

However, this calculation includes matches where two profitable nations competed against each other.

If we exclude these matchups and only focus on games where profitable nations faced unprofitable ones, along with host nations that automatically qualified, and bet accordingly in the 1X2 market, we would have made a profit of +7.76 units over 101 units placed.

Table 1: Performance of profitable qualification nations vs unprofitable and automatically qualified nations in the Euro 1X2 market

Euro	Games	W	D	L	Win P/L	WIN ROI%
2004	14	4	6	4	4.42	31.57%
2008	16	8	2	6	3.04	19.00%
2012	16	7	4	5	0.36	2.25%
2016	28	6	10	12	-5.24	-18.71%
2021	27	11	7	9	5.18	19.19%
TOTAL	101	36	29	36	7.76	7.68%

Profitable qualification nations have generated a profit in every Euro tournament since 2004, except for 2016, which resulted in a loss of 5.24 units with the most successful tournament, the Euro of 2021 returning the greatest profit of 5.18 units..

Breaking down the data by tournament stage reveals the following:

Table 2: Performance of profitable qualification nations vs unprofitable and automatically qualified nations in the Euro 1X2 market by stage

Euro STAGE	Games	W	D	L	Win P/L	WIN ROI%
Group	78	29	19	30	8.98	11.51%
KO	23	7	10	6	-1.22	-5.30%
TOTAL	101	36	29	36	7.76	7.68%

The group stage has been where most of the profit lies, with nearly 9 units gained from 78 units staked, resulting in a return of almost 12% profit. Conversely, backing such nations in the knockout stage of the tournament has been unprofitable.

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Backing Profitable Qualification Nations: Asian Handicap Market

Now, let’s examine the Asian handicap market for backing profitable nations against unprofitable ones.

If we had backed each profitable qualification nation against unprofitable qualification and automatically qualified nations in each Euro tournament since 2004 in the Asian handicap market, we would have seen a profit of approximately +5.98u across the 101 units staked, yielding an almost 6% return.

Table 3: Performance of profitable qualification nations vs unprofitable and automatically qualified nations in the Euro Asian handicap market

Euro	Games	AH Win	AH Loss	AH Win P/L	AH WIN ROI%
2004	14	9	5	3.38	24.14%
2008	16	8.75	7.25	1.01	6.31%
2012	16	8.75	7.25	1.13	7.06%
2016	28	14	14	-1.015	-3.63%
2021	27	14.5	12.5	1.475	5.46%
TOTAL	101	55	46	5.98	5.92%

We can see that each tournament returned a profit except again for the 2016 Euro which returned a loss of just over 1 unit while the tournament of 2004 delivered a profit of +3.38u.

All told backing profitable qualification nations hit at a strike rate of 54.5%.

If we break down the performance of such teams by stage we see the following:

Table 4: Performance of profitable qualification nations vs unprofitable and automatically qualified nations in the Euro Asian handicap market by stage

Euro	Games	AH Win	AH Loss	AH Win P/L	ROI%
Group	78	42.5	35.5	4.715	6.04%
KO	23	12.5	10.5	1.265	5.50%
TOTAL	101	55	46	5.98	5.92%

In contrast to the 1X2 market, profitable qualification nations show a profit in both the knockout stage and the group stage, with returns on investment surpassing 5% in both cases.

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Backing Profitable Qualification Nations for the 2024 Euro

Now, let’s explore which nations were profitable in the 1X2 market during their qualification for the 2024 Euros.

Nations that were 1X2 profitable: Euro 2024 qualification

Here are the nations that were profitable in the 1X2 market during the Euro 2024 qualification.

A total of 14 nations were profitable when supported at even stakes throughout the qualification group stage for the 2024 Euros with Scotland delivering the greatest results of just over 6 units profit.

Table 5: Nations that were profitable through qualification group play entering Euro 2024

Nation	WON	DrawN	LosT	WIN Profit / Loss	EURO Group
Scotland	5	2	1	6.16	A
Hungary	5	3	0	3.94	A
Turkey	5	2	1	3.62	F
Slovakia	7	1	2	3.44	E
Romania	6	4	0	2.50	E
Albania	4	3	1	2.38	B
Portugal	10	0	0	2.09	F
Austria	6	1	1	2.06	D
France	7	1	0	2.00	D
Slovenia	7	1	2	1.76	C
Belgium	6	2	0	1.46	E
Spain	7	0	1	1.14	B
England	6	2	0	0.74	C
Netherlands	6	0	2	0.47	D

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Nations that were 1X2 unprofitable: Euro 2024 qualification

This leaves the following 9 nations as unprofitable in the 1X2 market through their Euro qualification group play with Germany the automatic qualified hosts:

Table 6: Nations that were not profitable through qualification group play entering Euro 2024

Nation	Win	Draw	Loss	Profit / Loss	EURO Group
Croatia	5	1	2	-0.83	B
Denmark	7	1	2	-0.97	C
Czech Republic	4	3	1	-2.16	F
Serbia	4	2	2	-2.39	C
Italy	4	2	2	-3.25	B
Switzerland	4	5	1	-5.26	A
Ukraine	4	2	2	-1.90	E
Poland	3	2	3	-3.92	D
Georgia	2	2	4	-4.64	F

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Matchups to consider for Euro 2024

Which group stage matches are worth considering given this trend? There are a total of 22 matches during the group stage of Euro 2024 where profitable qualification teams are up against unprofitable qualification teams, including matchups for Scotland and Hungary facing the automatically qualified Germany.

Table 7: Euro 2024 group matchups of profitable qualification nations vs unprofitable qualification nations

Group	Profitable	vs	Unprofitable	Date
A	Scotland	vs	Germany	14th June
A	Hungary	vs	Switzerland	15th June
B	Albania	vs	Italy	15th June
B	Spain	vs	Croatia	15th June
C	Slovenia	vs	Denmark	16th June
D	Netherlands	vs	Poland	16th June
C	England	vs	Serbia	16th June
E	Romania	vs	Ukraine	17th June
F	Turkey	vs	Georgia	18th June
F	Portugal	vs	Czech Rep	18th June
A	Hungary	vs	Germany	19th June
A	Scotland	vs	Switzerland	19th June
B	Albania	vs	Croatia	19th June
B	Spain	vs	Italy	20th June
C	Slovenia	vs	Serbia	20th June
C	England	vs	Denmark	20th June
D	Austria	vs	Poland	21st June
E	Slovakia	vs	Ukraine	21st June
D	France	vs	Poland	25th June
E	Belgium	vs	Ukraine	26th June
F	Turkey	vs	Czech Rep	26th June
F	Portugal	vs	Georgia	26th June

 

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Conclusion: Back Profitable Qualification Nations

Firstly, the standard disclaimer applies. Past success in this trend doesn’t ensure future profitability. Additionally, we’re analysing data from just five tournaments. It’s crucial not to blindly follow this trend but rather consider it when making bets for Euro 2024.

Nevertheless, we can observe a trend where nations that excel in the 1X2 market during qualification tend to maintain their performance when reaching the tournament proper. This pattern holds true for both 1X2 and Asian handicap betting, especially during the group stage of the respective Euro tournaments.

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