basketball | Friday, February 17, 2023 8:57 AM (Revised at: Monday, February 20, 2023 10:31 AM)

NBA Most Improved Player Best Bet: Markkanen Edges Gilgeous-Alexander At 2.30

Sam Cox

NBA Most Improved Player Best Bet: 2022-23 NBA Season

Heading into the All-Star break, the race for Most Improved Player seems to be down to three players. Lauri Markkanen and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander share favourites status at 2.30. Jalen Brunson follows at 6.00. No other player is shorter than 20.00.

All three have seen their production increase substantially. All three have had upticks in their usage. Gilgeous-Alexander and Markkanen have seen their efficiency take a meaningful leap, too, while Brunson has had a more minor improvement in that category.

This is an award which carries subjectivity. Some voters will look purely at the year-to-year statistical progress. Others will see it more as a breakout player of the year, which would surely favour Markkanen.

In this article:

NBA Most Improved Player Betting Preview
NBA Most Improved Player Best Bet

NBA Rookie of the Year Betting Preview

Gilgeous-Alexander’s case is very similar to Ja Morant’s last season. Morant won the award, but it was not without controversy. While Gilgeous-Alexander has moved from mid-twenties scorer on so-so efficiency to an efficient 30 points-per-game guy, he was already a fringe All-Star in 2021-22. The improvement he has made is significant, and ceiling-altering for the Thunder, but voters might prefer to reward a player like Markkanen.

A former lottery pick on his third team in three seasons, Markkanen scoring 25 per game on 65.7% true shooting came from nowhere. Yes, he scored 27.9 per game in EuroBasket, but no one expected this kind of volume, efficient scoring after being used primarily as salary-filler in the Donovan Mitchell trade.

Last season demonstrated that voters value players taking the leap from All-Star to All-NBA as Gilgeous-Alexander has. Markkanen’s transition from disappointing prospect to offensive star on a competitive team is transformative too, though.

What the Finn has achieve cannot be overlooked, and the surge in his output is eye-catching. According to FiveThirtyEight’s wins above replacement, Markkanen was outside the top 110 last season, and Gilgeous-Alexander was 74th. Both are in the top 15 in 2022-23.

It is worth a quick note on Brunson. His increased usage after moving in free agency, and responsibility as the lead guard, meets a lot of the criteria for this award. He would be the winner in other seasons. The advanced metrics already liked his game, though, and the Knicks’ record isn’t impressive enough to really put him up alongside the top two. New York is also 4.8 points per 100 possessions better in non-Brunson minutes.

NBA Rookie of the Year Betting Best Bet

Gilgeous-Alexander and Markkanen have different, yet almost equally compelling cases, to win Most Improved Player. Rightly or wrongly, how the Thunder and Jazz play down the stretch might sway the voting.

This is a difficult race to call, but Gilgeous-Alexander’s higher starting point could just give Markkanen the edge. Gilgeous-Alexander has scored at this efficiency previously, and was already one of the league’s better self-creators in 2021-22. Markkanen’s breakout was truly unanticipated – he has not just shot the ball more; he has transformed his game.

Scoring 10 points more per contest, upping his free throw attempts, grabbing more rebounds and even improving slightly on defence, Markkanen’s case is marginally stronger at the moment. He is a good bet to follow in the footsteps of fellow breakout forwards Julius Randle and Pascal Siakam and win this award.