football | Wednesday, August 3, 2022 3:48 PM (Revised at: Thursday, August 4, 2022 5:22 PM)

2022/23 Bundesliga Season Preview: Longshots, Value Sides, Teams to Avoid

Scott Thornton

Ante-post picks can be difficult in a league that has been dominated for so long, but there is some value to be had as some of the bookmakers become more creative with their market offerings. I’ve assessed the chances of several of the teams and picked out some of my fancies ahead of another season in Germany.

In this article:

Bundesliga 2022/23 Season Preview
Bundesliga 2022/23 Most Overvalued Teams
Bundesliga 2022/23 Most Undervalued Teams
Bundesliga 2022/23 Outright Lock Bet
Bundesliga 2022/23 Outright Value Pick
Bundesliga 2022/23 Longshot

All odds quoted are the best odds available as of 12:30 on 3rd August 2022. Odds may now differ.

THE BETTINGEXPERT NEWS 2022/23 Bundesliga SEASON BETTING PREVIEW

Bayern claimed their tenth consecutive title last season, and they are expected to retain the Bundesliga again this campaign. The Super Cup curtain raiser showed there are definitely some defensive frailties in Nagelsmann’s side, but the chasing pack will have to up their game in order to prevent a new-look Bayern side from reigning supreme once more.

Three big teams secured promotion from the second division in the form of Schalke, Bremen and Hamburg; so I’m expecting a highly competitive season across the table. The race for the European spots should also be heated; with many teams vying for Champions League qualification. Teams such as Freiburg and Union Berlin will be looking to replicate last season’s successful campaigns, and potentially go one better by breaking into that coveted top four.

MOST OVERVALUED TEAMS IN THE BUNDESLIGA 2022/22

Borrusia Dortmund

I’m going to start by saying I still think that Dortmund will do reasonably well this season, but I’m just not sure about them being second-favourites for the Bundesliga behind Bayern Munich.

Borussia Dortmund lost Erling Haaland in the summer, and they seemed to have an excellent replacement lined up in Sebastian Haller. However, Haller is likely to miss most of the season as he battles a serious illness.

We wish Sebastian all the best in his recovery, but it is a disaster from a competitive standpoint for Dortmund; who will be without their focal point in attack having paid a hefty fee for the player. Haller will no doubt justify his price tag upon his return, but it leaves the club short of options.

Borussia Monchengladbach

Monchengladbach finished in a lowly tenth position last season, and I don’t think they have made the necessary improvements through the summer to justify the significant move up the table that the bookmakers are predicting.

Former Norwich manager, Daniel Farke, has come in. He was previously at Krasnodar, and although the German coach is more than familiar with the Bundesliga, it could still take time adjusting to a club that has the expectations of Monchengladbach.

The club have lost Breel Embolo and Matthias Ginter in the transfer market, along with a number of others, and just three players have been brought in to replace them. In fact, the club have spent just €7 million on transfers, and I think it could be another miserable season for the side if they fail to bring in reinforcements.

MOST UNDERVALUED TEAMS IN THE BUNDESLIGA 2022/23

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen have done well to ensure their key players are tied down with new contracts over the summer, and they will be hoping their ambition pays dividends this season.

Gerardo Seoane steered the team back into the Champions League for this season, but he will know that expectations are slowly growing at the club given the large expenditure in recent seasons. They were beaten in the DFB Pokal last weekend, and their preparations for season haven’t been ideal with several players injured.

On paper, Leverkusen have one of the most talented sides in the Bundesliga, and if they gel this season I think they are capable of being the team that runs Bayern Munich closest for the title.

Patrick Schick remaining at the club could prove to be pivotal, and his goals could be the difference in ensuring his team finish above the likes of Dortmund this season.

Selection: To Win The League Without Bayern (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 4.50
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 7/10

Freiburg

Freiburg performed extremely well last season, finishing in 6th place and just four points off the top 4.

They look set for another successful season here. The club have brought in Matthias Ginter and Michael Gregoritsch on free transfers, and they have spent a further €14 on transfers.

Gregoritsch was vital in keeping Augsburg up last season; scoring 9 league goals for the struggling side. He should flourish this season by playing for a more creative team.

Ginter has been capped 46 times by Germany and he returns to the club after eight years away. His experience should help out significantly at the back, and he is still only 28, so there is no danger of him slowing down.

They have also brought in Ritsu Doan from PSV Eindhoven. He scored eight goals in 24 games in the Eredivisie last season. He also looks set for another successful season after scoring in the DFB Pokal last weekend.

Manager, Christian Streich, is highly thought of. He should be able to get the best out of this group of players again this season, and there appears to be a feel-good atmosphere in the camp.

Selection: Freiburg To Finish In The Top Four (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 21.00
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 6/10

THE BUNDESLIGA OUTRIGHT LOCK BET 2022/23

This bet is favourite ante-post bet across all of the leagues this summer. Although I’ve already mentioned it, I’m happy to go through it again now that the Super Cup has taken place.

It is now apparent that Sadio Mane will be the central striker at Bayern Munich this season. Nagelsmann’s side make up for their defensive shortcomings by creating a whole host of chances, and Mane should thrive in a team that dominated their domestic rivals for a decade.

The former Liverpool man found the net as his team scored five against Leipzig last weekend, and his team mates will become more familiar with his attacking positioning as the weeks roll on.

Bayern’s top scorer in the league has never scored less than 20 goals since the Bundesliga began, and I think Mane has a great chance to be their man this season given that he will be on penalty duties as well.

If Mane continues with the good form he has shown in the Premier League over recent years, I expect this one to be in by March.

Selection: Mane To Score 20 Or More Goals (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.37
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 9/10

THE BUNDESLIGA OUTRIGHT VALUE PICK 2022/23

Christopher Nkunku had a hugely impressive season last year, despite Leipzig struggling in the early stages of the season. The club eventually sacked Jesse Marsch and appointed Domenico Tedesco, who has really impressed since taking on the role.

Leipzig look set to hit the ground running this season, and this can only benefit Nkunku. The Frenchman recorded 13 assists last season, and he is more than capable of hitting a bigger number this season.

Bayern still look like the team to beat, but their new-look attack could result in Thomas Muller having a slightly different role over the course of the season. The German was the only player to have more assists than Nkunku last season, so I’m happy to have a punt on the Leipzig man here.

Nkunku was chased by a number of clubs before signing a new deal with Leipzig this summer. However, it is reported that the contract includes a release clause, so the player will remain keen to impress Europe’s elite over the coming season while helping his team achieve their goals.

Nkunku scored 20 goals along with his assists last season. He also did both in last week’s Super Cup, so fingers crossed he continues that trend into the Bundesliga season.

Selection: Nkunku To Give The Most Assists (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 9.00
Bookmaker: Unibet
Stakes: 7/10

THE BUNDESLIGA OUTRIGHT LONGSHOT 2022/23

There aren’t as many markets available as the Premier League or the Championship to find some value in the form of a longshot, but there is a bet I have previously touched upon that I still feel is overpriced.

I think Mane scoring 20 goals is a fantastic price but 30+ goals is also available at bet365. The price has shortened from 51.00 to 34.00 since I first saw this bet, but I still feel it represents great value.

Nagelsmann’s unwavering attacking principles mean that Bayern will continue to be relentless going forward this season, despite the exit of Robert Lewandowski.

Bayern’s top scorer has reached 30 league goals in 16 of the 22 last seasons. The list of players to do this includes Mario Mandzukic, Luca Toni, Giovanni Elber, Roy Makaay, Mario Gomez and of course Robert Lewandowski. While it’s not a given that Mane will emulate these great forwards, he will be handed enough chances to hit that 30 mark.