football | Wednesday, August 10, 2022 11:58 AM (Revised at: Monday, August 15, 2022 9:09 AM)

2022/23 Serie A Season Betting Preview: The Value Teams, Ones to Avoid

Sam Ingram

The 2022/23 Serie A season betting preview is here to provide the best value outright bets and picks for the coming year in Italy. There is plenty to be decided at both ends of the table so let’s get to it.

In this article:

Serie A Season Preview
Serie A Most Overvalued Teams
Serie A Most Undervalued Picks
Serie A Outright Lock Bet
Serie A Outright Value Pick
Serie A Longshot

All odds quoted are the best odds available as of 11:30 on 10th August 2022. Odds may now differ.

The bettingexpert News Serie A Season Betting Preview

Silvio Berlusconi-owned Monza makes up one of three newly-promoted teams at the top of Italy. An ambitious transfer window to date for the club’s first-ever season in Serie A encourages a small city northeast of Milan to dare to dream whilst rubbing shoulders with two of the noisiest neighbours to don Serie A status.

Monza’s emergence is just one of several intriguing storylines that provides the backdrop to what should be another enthralling season. AC Milan and Inter Milan are expected to grapple over the Scudetto fifteen kilometres away. Olivier Giroud’s inspired brace up against Sassuolo at the back end of last season ensured the red faction of Milan got over the line. It was in 2011 that the previous Scudetto fell into their lap, with the hierarchy at AC sure to be intent on keeping the famed silverware out of arm’s reach from their fellow San Siro lodgers.

Juventus will have their say. I Bianconeri stands as the most-decorated Italian club with 36 titles. They recently claimed the Serie A nine times on the trot before the two powerhouses from the Lombardy region muscled in on the action. Regardless of where the Scudetto resides, Allegri will be hoping that big-name signings can once again shift the power in the country more towards Turin than Milan.

Irrespective of where the prominent honours end up after 38-games or where your loyalties may lie, just know we’re guaranteed another fiery Italian instalment.

The bettingexpert News Serie A Season Betting Preview

Here you’ll find a couple of outright picks to give a miss. Neither possess below-par squads nor threaten to push into the bottom half of the table. Yet, at the offered prices, there may be alternative selections elsewhere to have a dig at.

Napoli

There has been plenty of change in Naples. Nevertheless, the activity over the summer likely won’t strike fear into those competing at the dizzy heights of Serie A, with it expected to take some time to bed the new faces into the squad alongside significant outgoings. Napoli’s leading goal scorer, Mertens, has left, followed by Insigne, Milik, Koulibaly, Ospina, Ghoulam and Malcuit.

The incomings don’t entirely cover the losses for Napoli, although Min-Jae Kim, Giovanni Simeone, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia appear to be promising acquisitions, alongside Anguissa who completes a permanent switch.

At some of the quoted prices one can get behind – 2.20 for a top-four finish being the shortest at SkyBet, for example – it’s one to swerve for me, given the ongoing overhaul.

Juventus

The Old Lady is priced up shorter at some bookmakers than Inter, suggesting that it’s neck and neck for league glory. However, for me, Inter have the edge, with Juventus not too far away but assumably not having enough to keep up with Inter come the end of the season.

The losses of Chiellini, Paolo Dybala, and Matthijs de Ligt will hurt Juventus, though those through the door at the Allianz admittedly brag a wealth of experience. Angel Di Maria, Paul Pogba and Bremer will be accompanied by the return of Federico Chiesa, one that will undoubtedly feel like a new signing.

Juventus have all the tools for an assault on the Scudetto. Massimiliano Allegri’s bunch may well run away with proceedings, but not at a price that’s back-able amidst stiff competition from Inter Milan and an AC Milan outfit likely sparring from a distance.

Most Undervalued Picks in Serie A

Unlike the Premier League, there’s not an almost-endless string of markets to navigate from an ante-post perspective, but there’s enough to carve out some value. Below makes up three attractive value excursions into Italy’s top-flight.

Roma

Incomings in Rome make the Mourinho-led revolution one to get behind in search for European football. The Dybala x José Mourinho link-up should flourish into something special, as should Gini Wijnaldum’s presence in central midfield. First, there needs to be a 100% buy-in to the Giallorossi project, but if that’s there, Dybala has the quality to drag Roma up a notch.

There’s still value to be had for a top-four finish even if the prices have dropped. The 10.00 price to win the lot may be a bit of a stretch, but I wouldn’t want to rule it out entirely with a settled Mourinho at the helm.

Victor Osimhen

Now the leading man at Naples, the likelihood of Osimhen overseeing penalty duties may encourage your hand here. Unibet’s 1.90 for Osimhen to at least beat 2021/22’s Serie A tally (14) by two is tempting, despite losing key players in and around the Nigerian.

In 2021/22, Osimhen started just 23 matches, appearing in 27. His 14 goals oversaw a 0.5 goals per game total. If Osimhen can stay fit and rack up 35+ matches, he has every chance of beating his previous figure.

Comparatively, bet365’s have Osimhen priced at 1.16 to plunder 15+ goals in Napoli sky blue.

Selection: Vicor Osimhen to Score 15+ Goals
Odds: 1.90
Bookmaker: Unibet
Stakes: 20/10

Inter Milan

My pick for the Scudetto focuses on Romelu Lukaku’s Inter Milan. The former Chelsea man finds himself back home after an interesting season in London, and I expect him to go from strength to strength in Milan, just as he did previously.

It’ll be close between Juventus and I Nerazzurri, yet there should be some daylight between the two Milan clubs. Although AC did the business last season, Inter presents as a different beast with Lukaku. André Onana, Joaquín Correa and Henrikh Mkhitaryan also come into the group, whilst Divock Origi and Charles de Ketelaere come to Milan as AC’s most significant signings.

At 1.75 to claim the gong as the best team in the Lombardy region compared to 1.50 elsewhere, Unibet may soon see some movement on that price.

Selection: Inter Top Club in Lombardy (TRACKED TIP)
Odds: 1.75
Bookmaker: Unibet
Stakes: 10/10

The Serie A Outright Lock Bet

The Romans stand out as the most significant value selection from Italy’s top five sides in the hunt for Champions League football. Paolo Dybala’s signing is a statement move from José Mourinho, even if it’s just for the season. The Argentine’s €20m release clause coming into effect next summer suggests Dybala could be off elsewhere once he’s cemented a World Cup place and, hopefully, clinched Champions League football in Rome.

Gini Wijnaldum, like Dybala, received a hero’s welcome at his new club. The Stadio Olimpico was packed to the rafters with adoring onlookers chanting his name in unison. Similarly to Dybala, it may only last the season that the former-Liverpool man calls Rome a home, but what a season it could be.

Wijnaldum offers experience and know-how of getting over the line at the highest level. The PSG loanee will slot straight into central midfield and provide a near press resistant ability to keep the ball, propped up by a dogged approach when turning over possession.

All in all, Roma’s squad is much improved. After lifting European silverware in the form of the Europa Conference League, Roma have not only signed Wijnaldum and Dybala but also Nemanja Matić, Zeki Çelik, and Mile Svilar. In addition, circling rumours indicate Andrea Belotti is actively turning down Premier League clubs because his heart is on a move to Roma. If that’s true, that’s just another pint-sized, tenacious bundle of energy packed into a 5 “9 reason to get behind Mourinho’s ever-improving squad.

Napoli, on the other hand, have been raided during the summer. With Mertens, Insigne, Koulibaly and soon-to-be Ruiz out of the door, it’s the perfect opportunity for Roma to sneak a Champions League spot.

Roma to finish in the top four is the pick. This bet was out at 2.50 just a week ago but has dropped as low as 1.60 with some bookies this week. There is still value at 2.00 but not as much as we should have seen.

Selection: Roma Top Four Finish (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.00
Provider: Sporting Index
Stakes: 10/10

The Serie A Outright Value Pick

After Roma broke their club record transfer fee for the want-away Chelsea man, Tammy Abraham started breaking records himself. During his first season in Serie A, down went the record for the most goals scored by an Englishman in the Italian top flight. Abraham also tore up the 94-year script for most goals scored by a debutant in Italy’s top division.

Could there be another stellar season in store for Roma’s frontman? With Paolo Dybala just in behind and Nicolò Zaniolo working alongside Tammy, after successfully acclimatising to Italian football and chasing a World Cup place, why not? But, of course, Dušan Vlahović, Ciro Immobile, and a few others may have other ideas, though the 21.00 tag is appealing, to say the least.

Selection: Tammy Abraham Top Scorer (Each Way 4 places)
Odds: 21.00
Provider: Skybet
Stakes: 10/10

The Serie A Outright Longshot

Torino at 14.00 is a sizable value proposition to get relegated on Unibet. Comparatively, on bet365, the Turin-based outfit to meet their fate at the foot of the table is 4.50. That’s some difference. And there could be good reason to get behind a 38-game Torino trudge towards Serie B.

The transfer market encouraged noteworthy departures in southern Turin. Gleison Bremer made the bravely-trodden jaunt to city rivals Juventus to the tune of €41m. Andrea Belotti also left the club on a free transfer as a modern-day club legend, two outgoings sure to rock Torino’s pre-season preparations.

It’s not a position I necessarily expect to come to fruition. Yet, the 14.00 price around Torino’s neck for the drop screams value. With videos of Torino manager Ivan Juric and sporting director Davide Vagnati engaging in a scuffle in a car park during the club’s pre-season tour of Austria, it’s safe to say all is not well at Torino. Reports suggest that Juric was furious with the lack of investment in the squad following outgoings, a stance spilling out into more than just a stern word in Austria.