football | Tuesday, May 9, 2023 11:07 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, May 9, 2023 11:08 AM)

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Bet Builder Tips: Prop Builder for Milan Derby in Champions League Semi-Final

Sam Ingram

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Bet Builder Tips: Wednesday, May 10th

Here at bettingexpert, we’ve got AC Milan vs Inter Milan bet builder tips to get stuck into ahead of the seismic meeting in the north of Italy. Both may call the San Siro home, and both clubs may reside in the same city, though the world’s fashion capital can produce only one victor from Milan’s most significant European game in a generation.

In this article:

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Preview
AC Milan vs Inter Milan Stats & Facts
AC Milan vs Inter Milan Bet Builder

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Preview

Champions League Semi-Final, Wednesday, May 10th, 20:00 (UK)

Wednesday’s meeting will be Inter’s third UEFA Champions League semi-final. For their opponents, AC Milan, it’s their seventh, last competing and progressing in 2006/07 against Manchester United.

In terms of turning their hand at attempting to beat each other in Europe, the upcoming semi presents as the fifth occasion the two will meet. The history books will tell you that AC Milan is unbeaten across the last four (W2/D2), though football has a funny knack for rewriting recent history.

On paper, Inter bulldozes their way into the semi-final on a dominant streak of form – scoring 14 and conceding just one goal in their last six. That includes five straight wins, too, overcoming Empoli, Juve in the Coppa Italia, Lazio, Verona, and Roma, in that order.

Add current form to the fact that only Bayern (7) can boast more clean sheets than Inter (6) in this season’s Champions League campaign, and Inzaghi’s Inter become an increasingly difficult prospect for AC to overthrow.

Picking apart AC Milan’s journey in the Champions League this season, specifically the period following the back-to-back Chelsea defeats, the numbers make for good reading. Yet, it’s important to note that although conceding just once in their recent six matches, 6.8xGA has befallen the red faction of Milan, borne from the 86 shots faced.

Still, winning their last three home games in Europe’s elite domestic competition should stand them in good stead as fierce crosstown rivals pull up a chair on Wednesday evening.

The bookmakers have Inter priced as the 7.00 ‘favourites’ from Italy to lift European silverware in this season’s instalment of the Champions League, with AC sitting as 9.50 outsiders. Manchester City (1.66) and Real Madrid (4.00) in the opposing semi-final is where most of the money will be heading before a ball is kicked this week, two modern-day titans of the sport that will present a daunting, off-putting task for whoever reaches the final.

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Stats & Facts

The two Milanese clubs have already met three times this season with Inter winning twice and AC Milan pipping their rivals to the tune of 3-2 at home.
No player has delivered more crosses into the penalty area in the competition this term than Inter Milans’s Alessandro Bastoni (11).
Olivier Giroud (39) has won more Aerial Duels than any player in the Champions League in 2022/23, pipping Napoli’s Kim Min-Jae (32)
Inter (12.10) and AC (11.70) have near-mirroring shots per90 figures in the Champions League this season.

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Bet Builder

In all honesty, there wasn’t much screaming off the page in terms of value here. Instead, I’ve lumped together four angles I’ve gravitated to, going off recent meetings and the enormity of the tie. First up, and the least exciting of the bunch, is under four goals.

In the three meetings this season (1-0, 0-3, and 3-2), the ‘unders’ angle has landed in 2/3. With the size of the contest and the anxieties around such a game so glaringly obvious, we should expect periods where either side feels each other out rather than relentlessly seeking to work openings. That should lend itself to fewer goals.

It’s far from rocket science, but the next foray into the tie sides with the likeliness for it to be a tetchy affair. Two fierce rivals, full of personnel more than capable of becoming involved in handbags or leaving a foot in, on the biggest stage of all? Yeah, that’s a recipe for bookings if ever I’ve seen one. The worry here is that the referee, Jesus Gil Manzano from Spain, will instead lay his stall out early and deliver bookings in the first half – something he’s no stranger to.

For example, Manzano dished out five first-half cards in his most recent La Liga fixture, split 4:1. The official averages 5.21 cards per90 from 32 outings this term, handing us something to work with for the bet builder.

And lastly, Rafael Leao takes the final selection. In the two appearances against Inter earlier in the season, Leao registered five shots in each, scoring two goals. The Portuguese winger has previous against Inter, and now he finds himself firmly in the shop window.

The onus is on AC Milan, with their fans packing the San Siro in the first leg. The second leg may also be at ‘home’, oddly, but one would expect there to be more intensity in the final third in the opening fixture of the tie. In the hope that Leao is at it from minute one, out to prove a point ahead of contract talks with the powers that be in Milan, over 1.5 shots may not be a big ask.