AC Milan vs Juventus Expert Football Betting Tips: Value Bets, Team News and Stats

The Serie A returns with a bang as San Sirio will light up on Sunday for one of Europe’s most fascinating games, AC Milan vs Juventus, with expert football betting tips from bettingexpert author, Daniele Fisichella, served up below.

The Rossoneri are top of the league after their hard-fought 1-0 win in Genoa and Juventus are only four points behind as they come on the back of two wins and a 0-0 draw against Atalanta.

Elsewhere on bettingexpert, and before we head into the meat of the article, consider taking a look at Daniele’s Serie A Early Bird, and his tip of the week (in the Roma game) in the Expert’s Acca.

AC Milan vs Juventus: Expert Football Betting Tips

• Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
• Longshot Expert Bet Tip: AC Milan Asian Handicap -1

Odds via bet365 as at 9:55am, October 18th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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Bettingexpert’s Value Bet Tip: Under 2.5 Goals

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, 19th October 2023, 7:45pm (UK)

AC Milan fans are bracing themselves for a crucial round of fixtures that will likely define their campaign.

In fact, after playing Juventus, the Rossoneri will face PSG twice in the Champions League and will travel to Napoli: some real tests to understand if Stefano Pioli’s side is, as many argue, really stronger than last year.

So far, the manager has been excellent at rotating his players and giving opportunities to those, like Yacine Adli, who barely featured last season. Under Pioli, AC Milan have developed a strong mentality and the ability to overcome adversities (such as injuries, and they’ll have a couple for this game), and the manager has often found interesting tactical solutions.

Fikayo Tomori missed the derby because of suspension when AC Milan got trashed 5-1 by their city rivals, but since then, they’ve only conceded one goal in six games. So far, they’ve played more games against top oppositions than Juventus, but especially in the Champions League, they’ve lacked conviction and precision in front of goal.

The absence of Theo Hernandez (suspended) deprives the hosts of a key attacking weapon, but Juventus are also dealing with injuries to some of their most important players.

In their last away trip, the Bianconeri kept a clean sheet against Atalanta but did not give the impression they tried to win the game (their xG in that game was 0.20). A depleted Juventus might, once again, decide to wait for AC Milan to make the first moves, deploying a similar tactic that saw them successful against Lazio (3-1) last month.

• Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Under 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.68
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

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Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: AC Milan Asian Handicap -1

The recent Juventus results might be deceptive: they’re unbeaten in three games and kept three consecutive clean sheets. But, apart from Atalanta, they haven’t faced sides renowned for their attacking prowess (Torino, for example, haven’t won any of their last 17 derbies).

In 2022/2023, it also looked like they had a strong backline; in fact, they managed to keep eight clean sheets in a row in Serie A, but as soon as they met Napoli in January, they got crushed 5-1.

The only change to last year’s starting eleven is the position of Weston McKennie as a right wing-back. Therefore, question marks over Juventus solidity remain. After being humbled by Sassuolo in late September, they reverted to the risk-averse version of themselves, to the detriment of the entertainment.

A similar approach in San Siro might not pay off, and if AC Milan scores the first goal, Juventus would find themselves in the uncomfortable position of having to chase the game, and this could lead to more goals.

The aforementioned defeat to Sassuolo was Juve’s worst game of the season, but, for example, also against Bologna, with the game 1-0 for the Rossoblù, they conceded plenty of chances to the visitors (the game eventually ended 1-1, but Thiago Motta’s side were denied a clear penalty).

If AC Milan takes the lead, it could become a high-scoring game, in stark contrast to the recent meetings between these two heavyweights.

Last season, Juventus had the seventh-worst away attack, averaging less than a goal per game. In 2022/2023, they lost away to AC Milan, Napoli, Lazio and Roma, as well as PSG, Benfica and Sevilla in Europe. On Sunday evening, we’ll find out if Allegri has managed to turn them around.

• Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: Milan Asian Handicap -1
• Best Odds: 3.45
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

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AC Milan vs Juventus Team News: Big absences in both camps

The hosts are without both France internationals Mike Maignan (who got sent off against Genoa) and Theo Hernandez, also suspended. In midfield, Rade Krunic is still suffering from a muscular injury, whereas Ruben Loftus-Cheek looks fit to start after missing two games.

Juventus are depleted, especially in defence, where Danilo, Alex Sandro and De Sciglio will all be out for at least six more weeks.

Rugani will feature in the back three alongside Gatti and Bremer.

Paul Pogba is suspended because of his positive doping test, and Nicolò Fagioli has been handed a seven-month ban because of illegal betting. Dusan Vlahovic and Federico Chiesa, who have missed the Turin derby before the international break, are in contention to start the game.

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AC Milan vs Juventus Match Stats and Facts: A very one-sided game in recent years

• Only once in their history (1951/1952) did AC Milan not win the Scudetto after winning seven of their opening eight matches.
• The Rossoneri are the only team in Europe’s five major leagues to have three players (Leao, Giroud and Pulisic) who have contributed to at least five goals each.
• Juventus have kept three consecutive clean sheets: last year, they managed to keep eight between 15 October 2022 and 7 January 2023.
• AC Milan are unbeaten in the last five games against Juventus.
• The last four matches between these sides have all ended with under 2.5 goals scored.

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