AC Milan vs Newcastle United Bet Builder Tips: 20 years after, the Magpies are back at San Siro

AC Milan vs Newcastle United Bet Builder Tips: OPTA Stats and Player Props

The Champions League is back, and AC Milan vs Newcastle bet builder tips are here to accompany its return and oversee one of the most fascinating games of Matchday 1 in the Champions League. In fact, this early kick-off (17:45) marks the return of the team from Tyne and Wear to Europe’s biggest competition after 20 years, and the Toon Army could not have wished for a better place than San Siro to open their campaign. The last time they played Champions League football, they earned a 2-2 draw here against Inter Milan, thanks to an Alan Shearer’s brace.

Last year’s semi-finalist, AC Milan, have the chance to put the embarrassment of their 5-1 defeat in the derby behind them. Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella delivers his AC Milan vs Newcastle United bet builder tips.

• Under 3.5 Goals
• Callum Wilson Over 0.5 Shots on Target
• Under 9.5 Corners

Bet Builder odds: 4.75

Champions League, Group F, Tuesday, September 19th, 17:45 (UK)

Odds via UniBet as at 8pm, September 17th 2023. Odds may now differ.

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AC Milan v Newcastle United OPTA Stats: The Rossoneri find English sides hard to beat

• This is the first official match between these two sides, AC Milan have won only one (1-0 vs Tottenham) of the last 11 games played against English teams.
• Newcastle United have won in their last trip to Italy, having beaten Parma 1-0 in the UEFA Cup 2006/2007. Before that they had lost two games and drawn two, including a 2-2 draw at San Siro vs Inter Milan in 2002/2003.
• AC Milan have been knocked out in the group stages of the Champions League only once (2021-2022) in their last 14 participations.
• Newcastle United are taking part for their third time in the Champions League, after 1997-1998 and 2002-2003. They played their last game in this competition 20 years and 184 days ago, the longest gap for any English club.

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AC Milan vs Newcastle United Bet Builder Tips: Sandro is back in…toon

Under 3.5 Goals

In their 5-1 defeat against Inter Milan at the weekend, AC Milan’s midfield crumbled under the high intensity of the Nerazzurri. As Tijjani Reijnders and Ruben Loftus-Cheek got overrun multiple times and struggled to keep pace with Inter’s attacks, the absence of a player like Sandro Tonali, sold this summer for a record fee to Newcastle United, was evident.

AC Milan’s new signings, including Christian Pulisic, had impressed so far, but for the first time, in Saturday’s Milan derby, they found themselves having to deal with a side that moved the ball well and quickly. The Rossoneri had 63% possession (72% only in the first half) but never looked in control of the game. They missed Fikayo Tomori’s (suspended) pace at the back, and getting Davide Calabria to play as an extra midfielder left them too exposed.

Newcastle United, on the other hand, haven’t enjoyed a blistering start to their season, and their win against Brentford was rather scrappy. AC Milan have scored under 1.5 goals in six of their last seven matches in the Champions League. Perhaps this might not be a goal fest after all.

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Callum Wilson Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Newcastle United will go into this game confident they can come back with something. Eddie Howe made five changes at the weekend, handing their first start to Elliot Anderson, Sean Longstaff and Callum Wilson. Tonali did not play a single minute as he was spared to play this match, where his experience and knowledge of the opposition might be crucial.

However, Wilson is Newcastle’s most in-form player, and in the week he signed a new contract, he scored again: his 14th goal in the last 17 appearances, having only started in seven of them. Will Howe give him another chance from the first minute? Being the first game of the group, it’s very unlikely Newcastle will start with both the English international and Alexander Isak up front. But, based on form, Wilson, who contributed to 25 goals since the start of last season in the Premier League, should get the nod.

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Under 9.5 Corners

Three defeats in a row against Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton have raised a few doubts on whether Eddie Howe is under pressure. Undoubtedly, Newcastle have overachieved last season, and with a squad strengthened by the additions of Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes, Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall, many expect The Magpies to go from strength to strength. Realistically, finishing third in a group with Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund would already be a remarkable achievement for a side that was fighting to avoid relegation when Howe took over in 2021.

Newcastle United impressed everyone last year as they worked really hard, with and without the ball, and often imposed their rhythm to games. They could create AC Milan a few problems, especially in transitions, thanks to the peace of Anthony Gordon and Miguel Almiron on the flanks.

On the other hand, AC Milan are a far more experienced side and, despite their poor record against English clubs, have shown last year they can be ruthless: in 2022/2023, they have won four games against Dinamo Zagreb, RB Salzburg, Spurs and Napoli, conceding only one goal.

AC Milan have had under 5.5 corners in 13 of their last 14 Champions League games, and in Serie A this season, they’re averaging 3.25 corners per game.

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