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football | Friday, October 7, 2022 10:08 AM (Revised at: Monday, October 31, 2022 12:40 PM)
History Says.....Back Profitable World Cup Qualifiers at the 2022 World Cup
Andrew Brocker
5
Here’s a question. Do nations that proved to be profitable to back through their World Cup qualification campaigns go on to be profitable in the World Cup proper? Or, having outperformed the market through their qualification, does the market catch up to them when the World Cup arrives?
In this article:
- World Cup Qualification 1X2 Profitability
- Backing Profitable Qualifications Nations: 1X2 Market
- Backing Profitable Qualifications Nations: Asian Handicap Market
- Backing Profitable Qualification Nations for the 2022 World Cup
In this analysis I will take a look at World Cup qualification and World Cup proper profitability in the 1X2 market. Specifically, each competing nation’s profitability in the 1X2 market through their qualification for each tournament and their corresponding profitability in the World Cup.
Profitability here defined as a nation’s total profit or loss if betting on them to win each qualification match at even stakes. For example, in 2010, England won 9 of their 10 qualification matches. Betting £10 on England to win each match through their qualifications would have returned a profit of £28.30. This is then, their profitability through their World Cup qualification.
For this analysis I referred to World Cup qualification 1X2 data via BetExplorer for 2010, 2014 and 2018 World Cup qualification. These were the only World Cup tournaments I could find complete historical qualification odds for. I took the best odds for each qualification match and adjusted those odds to a standard 4.5% margin. I referred to World Cup qualification results as provided by fbref.com.
Also note awarded matches were removed from the data set, while matches that went into extra time were ruled by result at the conclusion of regulation time.
World Cup Qualification 1X2 Profitability
Let’s begin by looking at 1X2 profitability through qualification for each World Cup qualifying nation 2010, 2014 and 2018.
2010 World Cup Qualification 1X2 Profitability
Heading into the 2010 World Cup, 21 of the 32 nations competing in the 2010 World Cup earned a profit in the 1X2 market through their qualification. The most significant of these was Chile, who earned +13.2 units through their 18 qualification matches, a run that saw the nation win as underdogs over Argentina at odds of 5.53 following that up with a surprise win over Paraguay at odds of 5.67.
| Nation | Matches | Win | Draw | Loss | Profit / Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chile | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | +13.20 |
| Slovakia | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | +9.78 |
| Paraguay | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | +7.53 |
| Denmark | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6.44 |
| Algeria | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +5.80 |
| Slovenia | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +5.57 |
| Spain | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | +4.15 |
| Netherlands | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +3.85 |
| New Zealand | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +3.49 |
| England | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +2.83 |
| Switzerland | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +2.78 |
| Serbia | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | +2.66 |
| Honduras | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | +2.57 |
| Nigeria | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | +2.01 |
| Germany | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | +1.71 |
| Australia | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | +1.65 |
| USA | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | +1.63 |
| Cameroon | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | +1.20 |
| Greece | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +1.08 |
| North Korea | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | +0.67 |
| Ghana | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | +0.43 |
| Italy | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | -0.65 |
| Japan | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | -0.96 |
| Ivory Coast | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | -1.04 |
| Mexico | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | -1.29 |
| France | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | -1.93 |
| Brazil | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | -1.95 |
| South Korea | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | -2.10 |
| South Africa | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2.25 |
| Portugal | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | -2.30 |
| Uruguay | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | -2.64 |
| Argentina | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | -6.36 |
2014 World Cup Qualification 1X2 Profitability
Approaching the 2014 World Cup, 15 of the 32 nations competing at the 2014 World Cup returned a profit in the 1X2 market through qualification. The most notable of these were Honduras and Belgium, with Honduras enjoying a victory over Mexico at odds of 12.08 while Belgium qualified winning 8 of their 10 matches, including wins away from home against Serbia and Croatia.
| Nation | Matches | Win | Draw | Loss | Profit / Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honduras | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | +6.73 |
| Belgium | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | +5.28 |
| Iran | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | +3.75 |
| Switzerland | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +3.68 |
| Colombia | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | +3.38 |
| Netherlands | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +3.25 |
| Greece | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | +3.25 |
| Chile | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | +2.36 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +1.74 |
| Algeria | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +1.59 |
| USA | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | +1.51 |
| Germany | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +0.82 |
| Costa Rica | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | +0.72 |
| Russia | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | +0.48 |
| Ghana | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +0.39 |
| Spain | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -0.28 |
| Portugal | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | -0.47 |
| Nigeria | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -0.83 |
| Cameroon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1.10 |
| Ivory Coast | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -1.43 |
| France | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | -1.84 |
| Australia | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | -1.84 |
| Italy | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | -1.93 |
| Argentina | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | -2.66 |
| Croatia | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | -2.89 |
| England | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | -3.11 |
| Ecuador | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | -3.27 |
| Japan | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | -3.35 |
| South Korea | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | -3.42 |
| Uruguay | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | -3.70 |
| Mexico | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | -5.44 |
2018 World Cup Qualification 1X2 Profitability
Leading into the 2018, 19 of the 32 nations competing at the 2018 World Cup delivered a profit in the 1X2 market through qualification. It was Iceland who made the most of their qualifiers, winning 7 of their 10 matches including a win at home over Croatia and a 3-0 victory away in Turkey.
| Nation | Matches | Win | Draw | Loss | Profit / Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | +8.41 |
| Costa Rica | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | +4.76 |
| Sweden | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +3.78 |
| Switzerland | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | +3.22 |
| Tunisia | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +2.91 |
| Poland | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +2.37 |
| Saudi Arabia | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | +1.73 |
| Belgium | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +1.71 |
| Nigeria | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1.61 |
| Germany | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | +1.57 |
| Peru | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | +1.45 |
| Brazil | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | +1.07 |
| Senegal | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +0.86 |
| Denmark | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +0.46 |
| Portugal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +0.46 |
| Spain | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | +0.43 |
| Morocco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +0.40 |
| Iran | 18 | 12 | 6 | 0 | +0.21 |
| England | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | +0.04 |
| Serbia | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | -0.01 |
| Mexico | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | -0.16 |
| Egypt | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -0.25 |
| France | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -0.60 |
| Panama | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | -0.91 |
| Uruguay | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | -1.13 |
| Croatia | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | -1.49 |
| Japan | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | -2.30 |
| Colombia | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | -2.98 |
| South Korea | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | -2.99 |
| Australia | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | -5.33 |
| Argentina | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | -5.55 |
Backing Profitable Qualification Nations: 1X2 Market
Firstly, recall we are using odds adjusted to 4.5% commission. If we were betting at best odds available we should expect returns to be greater.
Ok, so….
If we backed each of the nations that earned a profit in the 1X2 market through qualification, through each corresponding World Cup, we would have earned a profit of +4.06 units over a total of 220 units placed.
However this includes matches where two profitable nations would face one another.
If we eliminate such matches, and only consider matches where profitable nations faced unprofitable nations and bet on the profitable nations in the 1X2 market, we would have seen a profit of +18.1 units across 84 units placed. (This rises to +18.28 units from 90 units placed if we include profitable qualification nations facing host nations that did not compete in qualification.)
| World Cup | Total | Win | Draw | Loss | Profit / Loss | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | +0.43 | +2.0% |
| 2014 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | +21.13 | +66.0% |
| 2018 | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | -3.46 | -11.2% |
| Total | 84 | 36 | 17 | 31 | +18.1 | +21.5% |
We can see that the bulk of the profit came in 2014, chiefly due to the runs of both Costa Rica and the Netherlands, both securing sizable profits in the 1X2 market. Costa Rica defeated both Uruguay (at odds of 9.0) and then Italy (at odds of 6.50). The Netherlands meanwhile made a run all the way to the semi finals including a win over Spain in the group stage.
If we break down the data by tournament stage we see the following:
| Stage | Total | Win | Draw | Loss | Profit / Loss | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd Place | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +0.95 | +95.0% |
| Group | 62 | 25 | 12 | 25 | +17.13 | +27.6% |
| Knock out | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | +0.02 | +0.1% |
| Total | 84 | 36 | 17 | 31 | +18.1 | +21.5% |
Clearly the group stage has seen the bulk of the profit with over 17 units profit from 62 units staked, a return of nearly 28% profit.
Backing Profitable Qualification Nations: Asian Handicap Market
Let’s then consider backing profitable nations against unprofitable nations in the Asian handicap market.
If we had backed each profitable qualification nation opposing unprofitable qualification nations at the 2010, 2014 and 2018 World Cups in the Asian handicap market we would have seen a profit of +16.205 across the 84 units staked, a return of over 19%..
| World Cup | Total | AH Win | AH Loss | Profit / Loss | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 21 | 11.25 | 9.75 | +0.585 | +2.8% |
| 2014 | 32 | 23.5 | 8.5 | +13.45 | +42.0% |
| 2018 | 31 | 17.25 | 13.75 | +2.17 | +7.0% |
| Grand Total | 84 | 52 | 32 | +16.205 | +19.3% |
Unlike the 1X2 market, we can see that each tournament delivered a profit, although 2014 still did the bulk of the work.
Overall, Asian handicap selections went 52 of 84, a strike rate of 61.9%, with:
- 2010 hitting 53.6%
- 2014 hitting 73.4%
- 2018 hitting 55.6%
If we break down the performance of such teams by stage we see the following:
| Stage | Total | AH Win | AH Loss | Profit / Loss | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd Place | 1 | 1 | 0 | +0.99 | +99.0% |
| Group | 62 | 38.25 | 23.75 | +11.71 | +18.9% |
| Knock out | 21 | 12.75 | 8.25 | +3.505 | +16.7% |
| Grand Total | 84 | 52 | 32 | +16.205 | +19.3% |
While we again see the bulk of the profitability earned through the group stage, unlike the 1X2 market, backing profitable qualification nations against unprofitable nations in the knockout stage returned a significant profit of +3.505 units from 21 units staked, a return of almost 17%.
Backing Profitable Qualification Nations for the 2022 World Cup
So which nations proved to be profitable in the 1X2 market through their qualification for the 2022 World Cup?
Nations that were 1X2 profitable: World Cup 2022 qualification
A total of 15 nations were profitable when backing them at even stakes through qualification for the 2022 World Cup. This includes hosts Qatar who did participate in qualification matches.
| Nation | Matches | Win | Draw | Loss | Profit / Loss | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | +8.98 | C |
| Costa Rica | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +6.10 | E |
| Serbia | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +5.13 | G |
| Cameroon | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +4.45 | G |
| Denmark | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +2.84 | D |
| Wales | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +2.80 | B |
| Brazil | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0 | +2.66 | G |
| Japan | 18 | 15 | 1 | 2 | +2.17 | E |
| Canada | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | +1.70 | F |
| Tunisia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +1.48 | D |
| Morocco | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +0.92 | F |
| Senegal | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | A |
| Qatar | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +0.30 | A |
| Iran | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | +0.26 | B |
| Argentina | 17 | 11 | 6 | 0 | +0.22 | C |
Nations that were 1X2 unprofitable: World Cup 2022 qualification
This leaves the following 17 nations as unprofitable in the 1X2 market through their World Cup qualification:
| Nation | Matches | Win | Draw | Loss | Profit / Loss | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | -0.04 | E |
| South Korea | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | -0.19 | H |
| Croatia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -0.28 | F |
| Uruguay | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | -0.67 | H |
| Spain | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -0.68 | E |
| England | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | -0.93 | B |
| Belgium | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -0.95 | F |
| Poland | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | -1.05 | C |
| Ecuador | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -1.57 | A |
| Ghana | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1.66 | H |
| France | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -1.87 | D |
| Switzerland | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -2.01 | G |
| Netherlands | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -2.10 | A |
| Portugal | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -2.20 | H |
| Australia | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | -2.52 | D |
| USA | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | -2.98 | B |
| Mexico | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | -3.18 | C |
Matchups to consider for World Cup 2022
So which group stage matches provide an interest given the trend observed?
| Group | Profitable | vs | Unprofitable | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Qatar | vs | Ecuador | 20-November-2022 |
| A | Senegal | vs | Netherlands | 21-November-2022 |
| B | Iran | vs | England | 21-November-2022 |
| B | Wales | vs | USA | 21-November-2022 |
| E | Costa Rica | vs | Spain | 23-November-2022 |
| E | Japan | vs | Germany | 23-November-2022 |
| F | Canada | vs | Belgium | 23-November-2022 |
| F | Morocco | vs | Croatia | 23-November-2022 |
| G | Cameroon | vs | Switzerland | 24-November-2022 |
| C | Argentina | vs | Mexico | 26-November-2022 |
| C | Saudi Arabia | vs | Poland | 26-November-2022 |
| D | Denmark | vs | France | 26-November-2022 |
| D | Tunisia | vs | Australia | 26-November-2022 |
| F | Canada | vs | Croatia | 27-November-2022 |
| F | Morocco | vs | Belgium | 27-November-2022 |
| G | Brazil | vs | Switzerland | 28-November-2022 |
| A | Qatar | vs | Netherlands | 29-November-2022 |
| A | Senegal | vs | Ecuador | 29-November-2022 |
| B | Iran | vs | USA | 29-November-2022 |
| B | Wales | vs | England | 29-November-2022 |
| C | Argentina | vs | Poland | 30-November-2022 |
| C | Saudi Arabia | vs | Mexico | 30-November-2022 |
| D | Denmark | vs | Australia | 30-November-2022 |
| D | Tunisia | vs | France | 30-November-2022 |
| E | Costa Rica | vs | Germany | 01-December-2022 |
| E | Japan | vs | Spain | 01-December-2022 |
| G | Serbia | vs | Switzerland | 02-December-2022 |
We see 27 matches through the group stage to consider, with no matches featuring Group H, with all four nations going unprofitable through their qualification.
World Cup Qualification Profitability: What did we learn?
First of all, the usual disclaimer. Past profitability of such a trend is no guarantee of future profitability. Further, we are dealing with just three tournaments worth of data. The trend revealed here should not be followed blindly but rather taken into account when considering bets for the 2022 World Cup.
However, we are able to observe the trend where nations that outperform the 1X2 market through their qualification continue to do so, in the aggregate, when opposing nations in the World Cup that underperform against the market through their qualification. This was shown to be the case for both 1X2 and Asian handicap betting particularly through the group stage of the corresponding World Cup tournament.
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