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The Asian Cup knockout rounds are underway, and Nathan Joyes provides his Bahrain vs Japan prediction, tips and best bets preview. Despite losing to Iraq, the tournament favourites delivered plenty of goals and have been drawn rather favourably.
Not only that, Nathan has also put together an Asian Cup Outright article looking at his three teams capable of winning the tournament.
In this article:
Qatar, Asian Cup, Wednesday, January 31st, 11:30 (UK)
After conceding two vs Vietnam and losing to Iraq, Japanese fans have every right to be worried heading into the knockout stages. They were expected to waltz through in first place with maximum points, but it simply didn’t happen.
However, tournament winners never win all their matches – just ask Argentina. Lessons have been learnt from their opening fixtures, and a more complete performance was put together against Indonesia in their 3-1 victory.
Even after going 2-0 down against Iraq, Japan dominated possession, should have been awarded a penalty and overall, were rather unfortunate to not claim at least a point. There are weaknesses defensively, but going forward, there’s too much talent to dismiss them lightly.
Bahrain managed to edge past Malaysia and Jordan with narrow 1-0 victories but were comfortably beaten against South Korea. They managed to score vs Korea but only found the target twice in 90 minutes.
Japan will need to improve defensively if they are to win this tournament. However, Bahrain aren’t a dangerous side compared to the favourites, and the Blue Samurai can progress to the quarter-finals without too much concern.
Despite not starting against both Vietnam and Iraq, 25-year-old Ayase Ueda has worked his way into contention. He not only scored vs Vietnam when introduced, but the Feyenoord striker bagged a brace against Indonesia.
His performances cannot be ignored any more by Hajime Moriyasu, who has little choice but to start his in-form striker.
Having scored a hat-trick vs Myanmar and a brace vs Syria, Ueda has shown he’s Japan’s deadliest forward. Whether he’s playing against teams who sit back or sides that like to force the game to Japan, Ueda is capable of finding pockets of space inside the box.
His intelligence to time his runs into the six-yard box makes it easy for his teammates to pick him out, as we saw against Indonesia. An additional bonus is that Ueda takes penalties.
If Bahrain are to make a mistake as Japan looks to work their way into the box, rest assured Ueda will step up and likely dispatch his penalty into the back of the net.
Although there are defensive concerns around Japan, they’ve only failed to score in one half in all three group matches. That came against Iraq, who shocked them with a 2-0 lead at the break.
However, Bahrain isn’t at the same level as Iraq, nor do they have the same physical strength to try and dominate the Japanese, which is their main weakness.
Also, it’s worth noting Bahrain lost 3-1 to South Korea – who are at a similar quality compared to Japan – and Korea managed to score in both halves against Bahrain in their Asian Cup opener.
Bahrain did manage to keep two clean sheets in the group stage, but Jordan were already through by the time they met, and Malaysia offered very little threat going forward with just one shot on target.
A repeat South Korea scoreline could be on the cards for Bahrain, who are simply not on the same level as the Japanese.
With Japan scoring freely so far, with four different goalscorers, expect the Blue Samurai to find the back of the net in each half and cement a quarter-final spot in the process.
Bahrain vs Japan Prediction odds via bet365 as at 13:00, January 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
The main news coming out of the Japanese camp is that Brighton’s Kaora Mitoma is unlikely to feature against Bahrain. Having missed the entire group stage, Mitoma was expected to be back in time for the knockout stage, but this has yet to be decided.
If Japan are to progress, the Brighton midfielder may be included in the matchday squad for the final rounds.
Bahrain, on the other hand, will be delighted to have not picked up any fresh injury concerns in the group stage and will, therefore, have a full squad to choose from. Abdullah Yusuf will be their main threat after scoring the winner against Jordan.
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