football | Wednesday, May 17, 2023 1:13 PM

Bayern vs Leipzig Bet Builder Tips: 3.40 Builder for Bundesliga Title Showdown

Sam Cox

Bayern vs Leipzig Bet Builder Tips: Saturday, May 20th

Bayern Munich host RB Leipzig at the Allianz Arena on Saturday evening in a match with major implications for the title race and top four battle, making it a good time to take a look at some Bayern vs Leipzig Bet Builder tips.

This is the third meeting between the sides in 2022-23. Bayern defeated Leipzig in a 5-3 thriller in the Super Cup in July, but were held to a 1-1 draw when the teams met in the league earlier this year.

In this article:

Bayern vs Leipzig Preview
Bayern vs Leipzig Stats & Facts
Bayern vs Leipzig Bet Builder

Bayern vs Leipzig Preview

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 20th May, 17.30 (UK)

Three straight wins have put Leipzig in pole position to finish best of the rest. Sat in 3rd, they are four points ahead of 5th and look set to qualify for next season’s Champions League. They could be 4th and just one point ahead of 5th by the time this match kicks off.

Bayern have also strung together a trio of victories after thumping Schalke 6-0 last time out. Thomas Tuchel’s team are only one point ahead of Borussia Dortmund at the Bundesliga summit, though, and remain without Lucas Hernandez, Alphonso Davies, Manuel Neuer, Eric Choupo-Moting and Josip Stanisic.

History is firmly on Bayern’s side for this fixture, having lost just once in 16 matches against Leipzig. The Red Bulls can take confidence from the 1-1 draw in January. They had to absorb some pressure, but they also managed to get off more shots than Bayern, which is not an easy feat.

Away matches have been a problem for Leipzig, despite boasting an excellent defence on the road. They have won just six matches away from Red Bull Arena this season. Bayern have not lost a home league match since the World Cup, scoring 26 and conceding just eight over that period.

Bayern vs Leipzig Stats & Facts

Leipzig have not beaten Bayern in their last 11 meetings, which is their longest streak against any opponent.
Bayern forward Serge Gnabry has scored in three consecutive league matches for the first time since 2020.
Leipzig have conceded the fewest away goals in the Bundesliga since the turn of the year.
Bayern and Leipzig average the most possession and most passes in the Bundesliga in 2022-23.

Bayern vs Leipzig Bet Builder

Bayern are inevitably heavy favourites to win this match. They have had some slip-ups since Tuchel succeeded Julian Nagelsmann, but their overall record is still excellent with five wins from seven league fixtures. Their form has been up and down this season, yet their underlying metrics have remained by far the best in the league.

Leipzig underachieved their expected numbers early in the season, but have gradually caught up. Their expected goal difference per 90 is the same as Dortmund’s. Their xG against is miles ahead of everyone other than Bayern.

The four previous matchups have all seen both teams score. While the bookies are expecting BTTS to land again here, the respective defensive records make the price seem too short. Tuchel will look to control this game and avoid an end-to-end affair.

High-scoring matches have been common when these teams have met, but this should be cagier. A draw is a great result for Leipzig. Bayern have tightened their defence under Tuchel. Take under five goals here.

Look for this game to start in a cautious manner. These teams have conceded the fewest goals in the first half an hour. Bayern cannot risk falling behind early, and Leipzig will be happy to let the hosts have possession. A draw after 10 minutes is a good option.

Along the same lines, there’s value in backing the second half to have more goals than the first. Leipzig have scored more and conceded more after the break. Of Bayern’s 34 goals conceded in the league, 24 have come in the second half.

The final component in this Bet Builder is Bayern to win or draw. Leipzig haven’t been great away from home, and FC Hollywood are unbeaten at the Allianz Arena this season.