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Jimmy’s Punt: March 19th - 38.00 Long Shot Looking at Serie A this Sunday

Jimmy’s Punt: March 19th - 38.00 Long Shot Looking at Serie A this Sunday
IMAGO / Emmefoto

Jimmy’s Punt: Sunday, March 19th

Lazio welcomed Roma on Sunday evening in the Derby della Capitale, one of the fiercest rivalries not just in Italian, but European football.

The hosts will be hopeful of completing their first league double over their local rivals in over a decade. Their chances look good, with Roma faltering of late. However, as the cliche goes, form goes out of the window in a derby.

One thing is for sure, there should be plenty of cards!

In this article:

Lazio vs Roma Preview

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, March 19th, 17:00 (UK)

What a fixture this one is.

The hatred stems from territorial issues as Lazio, the Italian capital’s original club, were marginalised by the newer, and vastly more popular AS Roma.

The hosts have the opportunity to complete their first double over their local rivals since the 2011/12 season, a pair of 2-1 wins, the two games featured the likes of Francesco Totti, Daniele De Rossi, Miroslav Klose, Bojan, Fabio Borini and Erik Lamela.

Last weekend, the Eagles missed the chance to go 2nd as they could not break the deadlock at Bologna, the first time they have dropped points in their last four games.

Roma also suffered a shock defeat, edged out by Sassuolo in a seven-goal thriller. It is crazy to think that prior to that game, Jose Mourinho’s side had not conceded at the Stadio Olimpico in 2023, then Sassuolo put four past them.

Away from home, La Giallorossi have not fared so well recently. In Serie A, they have only won one of their last five games on the road, dropping points to Lecce and most recently lost to a Cremonese side for what was their first league win of the season.

Lazio vs Roma Best Bet

Cards should be rife. I really hope so anyway.

The last six league meetings have produced 18 yellows for each side, with Lazio picking up one red card. That is an average of six per game.

Jose Mourinho has been sent off three times this season, the most of anyone, player or manager, in the Italian top flight. And you would imagine he will be on top antagonising form on Sunday.

So, I think the only logical thing to do is throw some arrows at the player card markets.

The first pick is the hosts’ midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic. The Serb tops his side’s charts for bookings, picking up seven in Serie A this season. It is no surprise to see him amongst their frontrunners for defensive output, averaging 1.7 tackles, 0.9 interceptions and 1.1 fouls per game.

Next is their second most carded player, Mattia Zaccigni. The winger has 10 in 33 appearances in all competitions, including a flurry of four in his last five league starts.

For the visitors, Chris Smalling appeals. The former Manchester United man has also racked up six cards domestically this term, a third of which have come in his last three starts.

Gianluca Mancini completes the foursome. He was carded in Europa League action on Thursday and in the reverse of this fixture. Mancini should start in place of the suspended Marash Kumbulla which bodes well for the punt.

  • Selection: Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Mattia ZaccignI, Chris Smalling and Gianluca Mancini to be carded (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 38.42 (bet365)
  • Stakes: 7/10

Odds as at 12:00 Sunday, March 19th 2023. Odds may now differ.

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