BETSiE Predicts....Manchester City's Performance in the 2023/24 Championship Season

Manchester City has been charged with numerous alleged breaches of the Premier League’s financial fair play rules.

Speculation is rife as to what the punishments could be.

While some suggest the club will receive a combination of a fine and a ban from the transfer market, the most intriguing is the prospect of Manchester City being expelled from the Premier League.

This got me thinking: what would a season of Manchester City in the Championship look like?

So I decided to lift the hood on BETSiE and project what the 2023/24 season could look like with Manchester competing in England’s second tier.

A few disclaimers to run through:

Firstly, I used BETSiE’s current rating for Manchester City in the Premier League and adjusted it based on the historical performance of Premier League clubs that were relegated from the Premier League to the Championship.

I also promoted and relegated clubs that BETSiE currently favors to do so. I relegated both Bournemouth and Southampton from the Premier League to the Championship, and, like City, I adjusted their current Premier League ratings. Due to Manchester City’s expulsion from the Premier League, Everton survives another season in the Premier League. You’re welcome.

I promoted Burnley, Sheffield United, and Middlesbrough from the Championship to the Premier League. I relegated Rotherham, Wigan, and Blackpool from the Championship and promoted Sheffield Wednesday, Ipswich, and Plymouth to the Championship from League One.

And yes, I know that those of you with no sense of fun will be saying that if City were expelled and sent to the Championship, their squad would not resemble their current Premier League squad and, therefore, adjusting their current Premier League rating to represent their potential in the Championship is misleading.

But why do you have to ask these questions? Why so serious?

Come on. Play along.

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Projected Championship Table 2023/24

BETSiE has Manchester City winning the Championship by a, let’s call it, violating margin of just over 33 points. City would be projected to earn 125 points from their 46 matches, earning 2.72 points per match.

Projected 2023/2024 Championship Table

Pos.	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Points
1	Manchester City	46	40.3	4.0	1.7	154.5	22.5	132.0	125.0
2	Southampton	46	27.0	10.7	8.3	77.2	34.6	42.6	91.7
3	Bournemouth	46	21.8	12.0	12.2	64.2	43.6	20.6	77.5
4	Millwall	46	21.2	12.3	12.6	61.6	43.6	18.0	75.8
5	West Brom	46	20.3	12.1	13.7	61.7	47.9	13.8	72.9
6	Swansea	46	19.3	11.5	15.2	64.2	55.9	8.3	69.4
7	Watford	46	19.2	11.7	15.1	62.4	54.2	8.2	69.2
8	Coventry	46	18.0	11.9	16.1	58.9	55.5	3.4	66.0
9	Birmingham	46	17.5	11.7	16.7	58.9	58.3	0.6	64.3
10	Norwich	46	17.7	11.0	17.3	64.3	64.7	-0.4	64.1
11	QPR	46	17.2	11.9	16.8	56.9	57.1	-0.2	63.7
12	Sunderland	46	16.8	11.8	17.4	56.6	59.3	-2.7	62.1
13	Stoke	46	16.5	12.4	17.1	52.7	54.9	-2.2	62.0
14	Luton	46	16.4	12.6	17.0	51.1	53.5	-2.4	61.7
15	Ipswich	46	15.8	10.5	19.7	63.7	75.0	-11.3	58.0
16	Hull	46	14.8	12.4	18.8	48.8	58.7	-9.9	56.8
17	Reading	46	14.2	12.2	19.5	48.2	61.1	-12.9	55.0
18	Bristol City	46	14.2	11.6	20.2	51.6	66.8	-15.2	54.2
19	Preston	46	13.2	12.3	20.5	45.1	62.2	-17.1	51.9
20	Cardiff	46	13.0	12.9	20.1	42.1	58.3	-16.2	51.9
21	Huddersfield	46	12.6	13.0	20.4	40.7	58.2	-17.5	50.8
22	Blackburn	46	11.2	12.3	22.4	39.3	64.8	-25.5	46.0
23	Sheffield Wed	46	10.4	9.3	26.3	53.6	98.3	-44.7	40.5
24	Plymouth	46	7.1	8.0	30.9	45.4	114.7	-69.3	29.3

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The mark of 125 points would be 19 points clear of the Championship record of 106 points earned by Reading through the 2005-2006 season.

City are also projected to score just under the mark of 155 goals, walking all over the record of 108 goals scored by, funnily enough, Manchester City in the 2001/2002 season.

Similarly City is projected to concede just under 23 goals across the 46 match schedule, conceding fewer than the record of just 29 goals conceded by Sunderland in 1998/1999.

The goal difference of 132 goals would be just shy of double that of the record set by Reading of +67 goals during their 2005-2006 campaign.

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Chances of Manchester City Earning Promotion

I ran BETSiE through 100,000 simulations of our imaginary 2023-2024 season.

City won the Championship in all but 25 of the 100,000 simulations, with Southampton winning 24 of the 100,000 simulations and Bournemouth managing to finish top of the table once.

City earned automatic promotion in each of the 100,000 simulations.

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Would City go the season without a loss?

Based on compiled probabilities, BETSiE sees City potentially losing one or two matches. Of their entire match by match schedule, Southampton is the club to get closest.

City is projected to defeat Southampton by around a goal if the two clubs met in Southampton while City would be favoured by around one and a half goals with the match scheduled in Manchester. Likewise, City would be favoured by around one a half goals when they travel to face Bournemouth.

At the other end of the schedule, City are projected to defeat Plymouth by just over 6.5 goals with the two clubs meeting in Manchester.

Projected 2023/24 Manchester City Championship Schedule

Venue	Team	Opponent	GF	GA	Margin
Away	Man City	Southampton	1.73	0.74	0.99
Home	Man City	Southampton	2.14	0.60	1.54
Away	Man City	Bournemouth	2.16	0.62	1.54
Away	Man City	Millwall	2.16	0.60	1.56
Away	Man City	West Brom	2.38	0.60	1.78
Away	Man City	Watford	2.69	0.61	2.08
Away	Man City	Luton	2.63	0.50	2.13
Away	Man City	Swansea	2.78	0.63	2.15
Home	Man City	Bournemouth	2.67	0.50	2.17
Away	Man City	Coventry	2.75	0.57	2.18
Home	Man City	Millwall	2.67	0.48	2.19
Away	Man City	Stoke	2.71	0.51	2.20
Away	Man City	QPR	2.82	0.56	2.26
Away	Man City	Birmingham	2.89	0.58	2.31
Away	Man City	Sunderland	2.93	0.55	2.38
Away	Man City	Hull	2.89	0.48	2.41
Away	Man City	Cardiff	2.85	0.41	2.44
Away	Man City	Huddersfield	2.84	0.40	2.44
Home	Man City	West Brom	2.93	0.49	2.44
Away	Man City	Reading	3.00	0.47	2.53
Away	Man City	Norwich	3.22	0.63	2.59
Away	Man City	Preston	3.05	0.44	2.61
Away	Man City	Blackburn	3.16	0.39	2.77
Away	Man City	Bristol City	3.29	0.51	2.78
Home	Man City	Watford	3.32	0.49	2.83
Home	Man City	Luton	3.25	0.40	2.85
Home	Man City	Coventry	3.39	0.47	2.92
Home	Man City	Stoke	3.34	0.42	2.92
Home	Man City	Swansea	3.43	0.51	2.92
Home	Man City	QPR	3.48	0.45	3.03
Home	Man City	Birmingham	3.56	0.47	3.09
Away	Man City	Ipswich	3.73	0.63	3.10
Home	Man City	Hull	3.56	0.39	3.17
Home	Man City	Sunderland	3.62	0.45	3.17
Home	Man City	Cardiff	3.52	0.33	3.19
Home	Man City	Huddersfield	3.51	0.32	3.19
Home	Man City	Reading	3.70	0.38	3.32
Home	Man City	Preston	3.76	0.36	3.40
Home	Man City	Norwich	3.97	0.51	3.46
Home	Man City	Blackburn	3.90	0.31	3.59
Home	Man City	Bristol City	4.06	0.41	3.65
Home	Man City	Ipswich	4.60	0.51	4.09
Away	Man City	Sheffield Wed	4.86	0.54	4.32
Away	Man City	Plymouth	5.63	0.46	5.17
Home	Man City	Sheffield Wed	5.99	0.44	5.55
Home	Man City	Plymouth	6.95	0.37	6.58