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Football | Monday, November 20, 2023 2:32 PM (Revised at: Monday, November 20, 2023 2:33 PM)

Brazil vs Argentina Expert Football Betting Tips: Value Bets, Team News and Stats

Brazil vs Argentina Expert Football Betting Tips: Value Bets, Team News and Stats
IMAGO / ZUMA Wire Lionel Messi of Argentina warms up prior to the FIFA World Cup.

The clash everyone has been waiting for is finally here. South American expert Nathan Joyes provides his Brazil vs Argentina expert tips, as the two heavyweights go head-to-head in Rio de Janeiro. Will this result define Fernando Diniz’s career in the hot seat?

Below you’ll find expert football betting tips for Brazil vs Argentina provided by bettingexpert author, Nathan Joyes, as well as match stats, facts, value bets, and everything in between.

Brazil vs Argentina: Expert Football Betting Tips

Odds via bet365 as at 10:30, November 20th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Bettingexpert’s Value Bet Tip: Too important to lose

Brazil, World Cup Qualifiers, Wednesday, 22nd November, 00:30 (UK)

Both Brazil and Argentina head into their final World Cup qualifier of the year on the back of defeats. It’s not too often we say this, but the alarm bells will be ringing louder from the Brazilian camp.

Fernando Diniz’s Brazil are in fifth place after five matches. Realistically, they should be in sixth, only for Ecuador to be a point behind after their three-point deduction. The Selecao have already conceded more goals than their last qualifying campaign, and whether Diniz will continue in this role has yet to be decided.

Three defeats in a row would be rather damning for both Diniz and Brazil, who have looked completely out of sorts in every single match aside from their 5-1 victory over Bolivia.

With Ederson, Vinicius Junior, Casemiro and Neymar all out injured, expectations are not high amongst the fans.

However, Brazil have never lost a World Cup qualifier on home soil. That’s some statistic to hold onto – and if Diniz decides to pad out his midfield to match Lionel Scaloni’s, Brazil will have a realistic opportunity of maintaining that record.

Despite the injuries, Rodrygo, Gabriel Jesus, Martinelli, Endrick and Joao Pedro are all attacking options at Diniz’s disposal, and it would be a shock if they fail to create anything at the Maracana. While conceding has been an issue, there’s enough there to strike back.

Argentina, although in a much stronger position, also won’t want to end the year with consecutive defeats.

Despite winning their first four matches without conceding, their reliance on Lionel Messi was more evident than ever in their 2-0 defeat to Uruguay. They’ve struggled to score goals throughout qualifying, and it was only going to be a matter of time before that took its toll.

With the situation Brazil are currently in, it’ll be no surprise to see them turn up and secure the points. However, Argentina have proven to be resilient, aside from the Uruguayan match. Therefore, the value steers towards a stalemate.

  • Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Draw
  • Best Odds: 3.00
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 7/10

Bettingexpert’s Alternative Expert Bet Tip: Messi magic at the Maracana

As mentioned, even in 2023, Argentina rely heavily on Messi to win them football matches. His free-kick against Ecuador, alongside his brace against Peru, has seen this bet land in two of the four matches he has started.

Brazil’s defence has been a travesty during their opening five matches. With just one clean sheet, which came away to Peru who have yet to score, Diniz’s style of ball leaves them exposed time and time again.

With a fragile back line which appears to be ever-changing due to Diniz’s tactics and injuries, Messi should be able to find pockets of space – especially if Brazil only put two in the central midfield positions.

This bet has a safety layer to it with the fact Messi is on free-kick and penalty duty. So, even if Brazil opens the scoring, our selection will still be running if the Inter Miami forward can find the back of the net first for the visitors.

This may be Messi’s final visit to the Maracana in an Argentine shirt, and what a way to sign off in style with a goal against his greatest rivals.

  • Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: Messi 1st Team Goalscorer
  • Best Odds: 3.75
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 6/10

Brazil vs Argentina Team News: Hosts will need to re-shuffle

Brazil head into their most important fixture to date with a host of injuries. Although Ederson is out of the squad, Diniz is fortunate enough to turn to Liverpool’s Alisson. His captain, Casemiro, is also out, although a large majority of the fans don’t believe he has the pace to work in Diniz’s demanding formation.

Vinicius Junior, who went off against Colombia, is out for three months and will be a huge miss for the Selecao.

Argentina are unlikely to make many changes, if any, as they head into this fixture with no fresh injuries. Only Lisandro Martinez is the key absence from Scaloni’s squad.

Brazil vs Argentina Match Stats and Facts: A clash of the titans awaits

  • Brazil has never lost a World Cup qualifier on home soil
  • Both sides head into this match on the back of a defeat
  • The last time these two met was in 2021 and it finished 0-0
  • Brazil drew their last home match 1-1 with Venezuela
  • Messi has scored three group goals and is Argentina’s leading goalscorer


At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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