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Matthew O’Regan has his Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar prediction, tips and best bets preview poised and ready as fourth meets ninth in New South Wales.
It is a fixture CCM have dominated over the years, winning five of the last six meetings, so the visitors will be hoping to turn their fortunes around. They face a tough test against the best home side in the A-League.
In this article:
Australia, A League, Saturday 27th January, 2024
After a slow start to the season, losing their opening four games, Central Coast Mariners are flying up the table and are now unbeaten in nine. Over the last ten games, Mark Jackson’s side have been the form team, picking up 21 points from ten games, with 13 of these coming in their last five.
At home, CCM have the strongest record, accumulating 14 points from eight, scoring 18 and conceding 11 in the process. Since their opening two home defeats (1-2 to Macarthur and Brisbane Roar), Central Coast have gone strength to strength, winning four and drawing two of the next six at home, scoring 16 goals in this time.
They host a Brisbane Roar side that has lost five of their last six games. The last time Roar played an away game, they lost 8-1 to Melbourne City. In fact, Ben Cahn’s side have the worst defensive record in the league, conceding 30 goals in 13 games, with 17 of these coming in six away games.
Despite Roar’s defensive fragility, they’ve looked strong going forward, scoring in 12/13 games this season. Their games average 3.9 goals per game, with this average higher away from home (4.33). Central Coast home games average 3.38 goals per game.
Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 10/13 for CCM (7/8 at home) and 11/13 for Brisbane. In a match Central Coast will be expecting to win, we should see plenty of goals on top of this.
It seemed a given I would lean towards a Torres goal again, but the diminutive Colombian’s form is too good to ignore.
The 23-year-old has scored seven goals this season in 12 starts, scoring six in six. The 3-0 win for CCM was the last time the Colombian scored a brace. He has been a breath of fresh air since his move from Malta at the start of the season and has become a fan favourite.
Torres has shown a keen eye for goal, averaging 3.40 shots and 1.31 shots on target per 90. His xG and XGOT have shown promise, with the 23-year-old averaging 0.41 and 0.55 per game, respectively.
Playing against the worst defence in the league, Torres will be relishing the chance to add to his goal tally as he looks to spearhead an exciting Mariners attack since the departure of Marco Tulio to Japan.
Alou Kuol arrived back at CCM three years after his move to Stuttgart with a lot to prove. The 22-year-old failed to make an impact in Germany, so he came back to Australia to get his career back on track.
The frontman has impressed thus far, scoring four goals in 10 games. However, it is his yellow card record that intrigues me the most. He has been shown four yellow cards already, averaging a card every 191.5 minutes.
Of his four yellows, two have been for altercations, suggesting Kuol could be an easy target to wind up. He has also been booked in three of his last six games.
Kuol can expect a physical battle against veteran centre-back Tom Aldred, who will look to ruffle his feathers.
Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00 Monday 22nd January 2024 Odds may now differ.
Both sides have near fully fit squads to call upon, with only Harrison Steele missing through injury for Central Coast Mariners, while the visitors are without Henry Hore, Antonee Burke-Gilroy and Corey Brown.
The home side also saw Storm Roux given a red card in the final moments of their most recent fixture against Melbourne City following an altercation. The club has since appealed the three-game red card decision and subsequently released the following statement on their website:
“Our defender was shown a red card in the final moments of Sunday’s win against Melbourne City following an altercation between the two teams.
During Storm Roux’s 234 match Isuzu UTE A-League career so far, this is the defender’s first red card. The club will make no further comment at this time.”
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