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It’s matchday 6, the final round of group-stage games in the Champions League. We will soon know which teams will make the Round of 16 knockout stages of Europe’s elite club competition. I’ve picked out my six best bets from Tuesday’s fixtures.
In this article:
Tuesday, November 1st, 17:45 (UK)
Three successive wins have guaranteed Porto qualification out of a tricky Group B. They could yet top the section with a victory here and Brugge fail to beat Leverkusen. Despite their emphatic win in Belgium progression to the knockout stages was actually confirmed when Yannick Carrasco missed an injury-time penalty for Atleti. Sergio Conceicao’s side were on their flight home at the time and enjoyed wild celebrations a mile up in the sky.
Champions League elimination will hit Diego Simeone’s side hard. It’s the first time in five years they have failed to reach the knockout stages. A 3-2 La Liga loss to Cádiz at the weekend will have done little to lighten the fiery Argentine manager’s mood. 3rd place is still not assured either so there is work to be done to enable Atlético a tilt at the Europa League in the New Year.
There is more than a little history between these two sides. The two met in the final group stage game last season with Atleti securing progression after winning an action-packed encounter 3-1 in front of an electric Estádio do Dragão. Four yellow cards as well as a red apiece with both benches clashing set the tone for a late flurry of goals.
The reverse fixture this term has been Los Colchoneros’ only win in the competition. Although the 2-1 scoreline does not tell the full story, being the only UCL game to feature three goals in second-half added time. Another penalty and red card were part of the journey to an Antoine Griezmann winner in the 11th minute of injury time.
Given the nature of Atletico’s elimination and the subsequent celebrations, it would not be a shock to see a similarly feisty encounter here. Legendary whistle-blower Daniele Orsato is the man in charge.
More Porto vs Atletico Madrid Tips
Tuesday, November 1st, 17:45 (UK)
A dramatic 2-2 draw with Atletico Madrid last week leaves Leverkusen with a chance of European football in the New Year. Clément Turpin had blown the full-time whistle at the Estadio Metropolitano when VAR instructed him to check on a possible handball incident. The official duly pointed to the spot only for Lukáš Hrádecký to deny Yannick Carrasco from 12 yards. Saúl headed the rebound off the bar before a third effort was blocked. Xabi Alonso’s side will snatch a place in the Europa League football if they better Atletico’s result in Portugal to finish 3rd.
Brugge have long since secured their place in the knockout stages of the UCL. An impressive haul of 10 points from the opening four games made sure of that. Although they need to better Porto’s result against Atleti to finish top of Group B. Carl Hoefkens’s side bounced back from a 4-0 hiding at home to the Portuguese champions last week with a 4-2 defeat of Oostende at the weekend.
Both sides will still have motivation in this clash at BayArena – especially if the scoreline remains tight in Portugal. Following victory in Alonso’s first game in charge, Leverkusen are winless in five. Although they have only lost one of their last five home games. An open game is on the cards with action likely at both ends especially as news filters through from elsewhere.
More Bayer Leverkusen vs Club Brugge Tips
Tuesday, November 1st, 20:00 (UK)
Both these sides have sealed progression out of Group A. Following a 4-1 thrashing in the reverse fixture on MD1, Liverpool must beat Napoli by four goals to top the group. The Reds suffered the worst possible preparation for this seemingly impossible task on the weekend. Jürgen Klopp’s side fell to a last minute defeat at the hands of Leeds on Saturday. That ended their 15 game unbeaten run at home as well as Virgil van Dijk’s record of not losing a home EPL game in his 79 appearances since joining the club.
Napoli on the other hand continued their unbelievable run of form with Sassuolo the latest victims. A 4-0 victory for Luciano Spalletti’s men was the 13th in succession in all competitions scoring a remarkable 40 goals in the process. The Azzurri travel to Merseyside protecting a 100% record in this season’s competition which has seen them amass 20 goals scored. More than any other side in the competition.
European nights are usually special occasions at Anfield. Liverpool will also be keen to avoid a second successive defeat in what is proving to be a troublesome season. There will also be a whiff of revenge in the air following the way they were ripped apart in Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. The visitors however are not the opponent to take their foot off the gas. A side I have taken great pleasure in watching this term. We could be in for a treat here with something more akin to a basketball match.
Tuesday, November 1st, 20:00 (UK)
Bottom side Marseille host group leaders Tottenham with all to play for ahead of this final match day. Group D is the only section with no team as yet eliminated or safely qualified. From a season that started so well, Les Olympiens have hit a sticky patch of form. At least they stopped the rot of three successive defeats with a draw at Strasbourg in Ligue 1 over the weekend. However, even that was a disappointment given Igor Tudor’s side squandered a 2-0 halftime lead.
Spurs’ 1-1 draw with Sporting last week was most noteworthy for Harry Kane’s dramatic last-minute winner being chalked off by VAR for offside. A fuming Antonio Conte was sent off in the aftermath and as a result, will be absent from the touchline here. Things looked to be going from bad to worse as the North London side fell two goals down to Bournemouth at the weekend. But a three-goal second-half salvo ensured they travel to Stade Vélodrome on the back of a much-needed win.
Group D promises to offer an intriguing evening of viewing with plenty of to and fro on the menu. Rather than try to call a result in a game Antonio Conte has described as like “a final”.
A player in the props market once again catches my eye. Matteo Guendouzi has appeared more than once in my previous previews as a result of playing in a more advanced role than we have been accustomed to. The 23-year-old scored a brilliant volley to draw his team level in Frankfurt last week. His second goal in this season’s competition.
The former-Arsenal man has fired eight shots from four UCL appearances this season. Attempting at least two in three of those four games including three in the reverse fixture at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. In all he has had at least two attempts at goal in six of his last eight appearances in all competitions for Marseille.
More Marseille vs Tottenham Tips
Tuesday, November 1st, 20:00 (UK)
It’s been a predictably tough UCL campaign for the Czech champions. Drawn against Bayern Munich, Inter Milan and final opponents Barcelona, there only ever looked one outcome likely. Sure enough, Michal Bilek’s side are already confirmed to finish bottom of Group C regardless of the scoreline here. Plzeň continued their unbeaten domestic campaign with a 3-0 win at the weekend. Their 11th from their opening 13 fixtures providing a four-point buffer to Slavia Prague with a game in hand. But it is only pride at stake at the Doosan Arena.
Since an emphatic victory in the reverse Barcelona have failed to win any of their following four group games. Defeats home and away to Bayern and just one point gained from their duals with Inter mean it’s the Europa League for Xavi’s side in the New Year. Robert Lewandowski scored a dramatic 94th-minute winner as Barça continue to slug it out with arch-rivals Real Madrid at the top of La Liga. Ten wins from their opening 12 games remarkably conceding in just two of those fixtures shows this will be a tough assignment for the hosts.
Plzeň have conceded 20 goals so far in this group. They will be keen not to concede another five here which will give them an unwanted record. BATE Borisov (2014/15), and Legia Warsaw (2016/17) both shipped 24 goals in those respective group-stage campaigns – the highest totals to date.
The Catalans should be far too strong here and will look to exit the UCL for another year on a high. With possibly one eye on that record the home side will at least try to keep it tight but they have been losing at both half-time and full-time in their last 5 UCL matches. Seeing the half-time result replicated at full-time in 12 of their last 15 matches in all competitions.
More Viktoria Plzeň vs Barcelona Tips
Tuesday, November 1st, 20:00 (UK)
Rangers’ first UCL campaign for 12 years has been an unmitigated disaster. Five straight defeats whilst shipping 19 goals in the process. Hopes of progression were ended in their previous group game at Ibrox. A 7-1 humiliation at the hands of Liverpool despite taking an early lead. Defeat to Napoli since then means they need nothing short of a miracle to claim the consolation of a place in the Europa League. Following a 4-0 defeat in the reverse fixture in Amsterdam, the Gers will need to score at least five here to contest a tournament they reached the final of last season.
The transition from Erik ten Hag has been a predictably tough one for Ajax. Their hopes of qualification were also ended with a defeat to Liverpool in Amsterdam last week. Alfred Schreuder’s men were arguably the better side until Mo Salah’s opener just before half-time. After missing several good chances it represented a failure to get on the scoresheet for the first time in 26 competitive matches.
Ajax were given the weekend off Eredivisie action in preparation for this clash. It would be f a surprise to see a heavily rotated side despite the upcoming De Klassieker with PSV this weekend. Rangers have a mountain of injury concerns and may have one eye on closing the four point gap to Celtic at the top of the Scottish Premiership rather than the unlikely huge win needed here. Surely only complacency can deny Ajax and so expect them to try and put this one out of Rangers’ reach early. Allowing for some rotation later in the game ahead of their weekend domestic top-of-the-table clash.
Best odds as at 10:30 October 31st 2022. Odds may now differ.
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