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Scott Thornton brings you his Dortmund vs PSV prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview for the second leg of their Champions League round of 16 clash.
PSV were on the front foot in the first leg but the scores are level at 1-1 ahead of this match at Signal Iduna Park. Peter Bosz managed Dortmund back in 2017 and looks set to win the Eredivisie this season. Dortmund, on the other hand, are fighting for a place in the top four.
However, the prize on Wednesday night is a place in the last eight of Europe’s elite club competition. Our Dortmund vs PSV prediction is for Dortmund to win the match 3-1.
Europe, Champions League, Wednesday, March 13th, 20:00 (UK)
Dortmund successfully navigated their way through the group of death to reach the last 16. They finished ahead of PSG, Milan, and Newcastle to finish at the top. Edin Terzic’s men lost their opening match 2-0 in Paris but have since gone six matches unbeaten in this competition. They remained unbeaten in front of the Yellow Wall, so the first bet in this clash is for the home side to win.
Terzic’s men lost their last home match against Hoffenheim 3-2. It was just their third defeat in front of their own fans this season. The other two came against RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich. Dortmund have failed to hit the heights of last season when they narrowly missed out on the title in the final day. However, they have already shown they have what it takes in this competition, and they should edge out PSV.
Dortmund are averaging 1.75 goals per home game across all competitions this season and are conceding just 1.19. They have suffered just two home defeats in the Champions League since the start of the 2019/20 campaign.
The next bet for Dortmund vs PSV is BTTS in the match and Over 2.5 goals. The first leg finished 1-1, but we are backing the one extra goal in this one with a sense of urgency likely to creep in as the game wears on.
Dortmund have scored in nine of their last ten home matches across all competitions.
The only time Dortmund failed to score was in the 4-0 loss to Bayern Munich. They had 15 shots in that match but squandered every opportunity in front of goal. Terizc’s side’s home matches this season have seen an average of 2.94 goals per game.
PSV’s away matches in the Champions League this season have seen an average of 3.8 goals. Prior to the trip to face the Go-Ahead Eagles at the weekend, they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their five away matches in 2024. Their away matches across the whole of the campaign have seen an average of 3.74 goals.
Niclas Fullkrug has been the standout performer in Dortmund’s attack this season. He has six goals in 2024 before the match against Werder Bremen and will lead the line against PSV.
Fulkrug’s contribution goes far beyond his goals. He has eight assists to go along with 11 goals in 21 Bundesliga appearances. He has only found the net once in the Champions League so far this season, but he should have some success on Wednesday night. Dortmund were second best in the first leg so Niclas was unable to have his usual impact. The home side are likely to see more of the ball this time around so 2.60 for him to score any time appeals.
The German has an average of 0.31 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes played in this campaign. While his performance levels have remained high, he failed to score in three matches, starting with the draw in Eindhoven. Fullkrug is overdue a goal and his importance to the team from a creative standpoint would also mean he gets plenty of minutes here.
Dortmund vs PSV Prediction odds via bet365 as at 07:30, March 8th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Edin Terzic has a few injury concerns ahead of this match. Sebastian Haller has an ankle injury so the composition of the Dortmund attack is unlikely to change. Gregor Kobel is also unavailable due to a muscle injury. Felix Nmacha is also a fitness concern but he hasn’t played for the club since November.
PSV have three players who are out of this one, all of whom are attackers. Richard Ledezma, Noa Lang and Guus Til have all been out for an extended period. Peter Bosz still has plenty of talent in the forward areas at his disposal.
Dortmund possible starting lineup: Meyer; Maatsen, Shlotterbeck, Hummels, Ryerson, Reus; Sancho, Malen, Fullkrug
PSV possible starting lineup: Benitez; Dest, Oscagli, Ramalho, Tese; Mauro Jr., Schouten, Tillman’ Lozano, Bakayoko, De Jong
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