football | Tuesday, May 2, 2023 6:53 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, May 2, 2023 9:10 AM)

Early Bird Best Bets: April 7th-8th - Early Picks for Five Matches this Week

Sam Ingram

Early Bird Best Bets: 7th-8th May

The final day is here in the EFL. It’s the business end, the time where it really matters for some, with promotion and relegation exhaustingly close. Five picks, all from the EFL, below.

In this article:

Middlesbrough vs Coventry Preview & Best Bet
QPR vs Bristol City Preview & Best Bet
Barnsley vs Peterborough Preview & Best Bet
Exeter vs Morecambe Preview & Best Bet
Fleetwood vs Ipswich Preview & Best Bet

Middlesbrough vs Coventry Preview

England, Championship, Monday, May 8th, 15:00 (UK)

Michael Carrick’s Middlesbrough are guaranteed fourth spot behind Luton, Sheffield United, and Burnley. And they’re good value for it. At one stage, not too long ago, automatic promotion was an aim that didn’t feel a million miles away from reality up North.

Instead, it’s the thrill of the playoffs that Chuba Akpom and company will have to endure. Worryingly, the two losses on the bounce against Luton and Rotherham is far from ideal preparation to head into a double-legged playoff semi-final. Although there’s nothing to fight for regarding the final league position now, I have no doubts Carrick will want to put in a performance to build from in the season’s final fixture at the Riverside.

With that in mind, I think we’ll see goals from Boro as we often have at home this term. And if that happens, Coventry may well find themselves in a predicament where they need to get on the scoresheet for any hope of playoff football. At the Riverside, Boro’s 45 goals scored come up just shy of Burnley (46) at Turf Moor and the Blades (47) in Sheffield, but it shows just how confident they present on familiar turf.

The proposed over 2.5 goals selection has banked in 12/15 of Middlesborough’s most recent Championship fixtures. With the game state how it is and Carrick likely he’ll-bent on seeing his side produce an attacking display that can be replicated in weeks to come, expect the Riverside faithful to see a goal or two of a Boro persuasion.

Middlesbrough vs Coventry Best Bet

And that’s not even mentioning Coventry. The Sky Blues have lost just once in 16 games, proving not only hard to beat but deadly in forward areas when Gustavo Hamer and Viktor Györkeres get going, to name just two. Scoring multiple goals in 4/5 of their recent matches highlight that this is a team not faltering in said areas when the season’s pressure mounts towards the business end.

If the hosts can find the net, which I back them to, this will be a cracker. Each of Blackburn, West Brom, Sunderland, and Millwall are jousting for the final two playoff spots in 5th and 6th, so Coventry needs points on the board to save them from what would be a nervy end to a campaign that has gone to the wire.

Selection: Over 2.5 Goals
Best Odds: 1.72 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Middlesbrough vs Coventry Tips

QPR vs Bristol City Preview

England, Championship, Monday, May 8th, 15:00 (UK)

Despite a 1-2 loss to The Robins over the weekend, Burnley did not appear outclassed, especially in the second half. However, avoidable mistakes and a remarkable goal from Manuel Benson allowed the visiting team to come out on top.

Perform like that against this QPR outfit, and you’ve got an excellent shot at avoiding defeat in the capital. I’m not sure how, but Rangers have now beaten Stoke (80%-20% possession) and Burnley (81%-19% possession), whilst drawing with Norwich in their last three games. It sees them free from the relegation scrap by the skin of their teeth.

QPR vs Bristol City Best Bet

In my opinion, I believe Pearson’s team has a good chance of challenging QPR’s defence on the last day of the season. Since there is no pressure on either team, QPR could be vulnerable if Bristol City plays as well as they have been

We’ll profit in the event of either a draw or a win – something which has paid out in 17/20 matches for QPR’s opponents in 2023.

Selection: Bristol City +0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.89 (bet365)
Stakes: 12.5/10

More QPR vs Bristol City Tips

Barnsley vs Peterborough Preview

England, League One, Monday, May 7th, 12:00 (UK)

Peterborough needs a victory to overthrow Derby in the last playoff spot on the final day. The Posh simply have to go for it, and possess players at the top end of the pitch more than able to find the net when it matters.

The Tykes will finish fourth, making this a ‘nothing’ game in terms of league standings. However, momentum is key for any playoff joy, so expect Michael Duff to be intent on getting another three points over the line against decent opposition. Barnsley drew 4-4 to MK Dons on the weekend – their first fixture since automatic promotion was off the table.

It’s difficult to envisage Barnsley not scoring at Oakwell – only Ipswich(60) and Sheff Weds(48) have bagged more at home this campaign. And if that happens, the Posh (who have the fifth-highest goals-scored haul in L1) will throw everything at the cause and leave themselves susceptible at the other end.

Barnsley vs Peterborough Best Bet

I’ve got the calculator out – if Posh win by three goals and Derby draw, that’s enough for Playoff football. If Derby loses away to Sheffield Wednesday and Posh beat Barnsley by any scoreline, that’s also a goer.

Those kinds of circumstances should lend itself to goals. Surely?

Selection: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
Best Odds: 1.86 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Barnsley vs Peterborough Tips

Exeter vs Morecambe Preview

England, League One, Monday, May 7th, 12:00 (UK)

Just because a team needs three points on the final day, it certainly doesn’t mean they suddenly have an edge strong enough to nick a victory. The bookmakers’ pricing of Morecambe to head to Devon and get three points highlights just that, although I feel there’s a touch of value in that 3.10 price.

After the 6-0 battering at Portman Road, Exeter have now lost six games on the bounce. But, in fairness, all six games came against sides that will either finish in the top six or inches from playoff football in seventh – Derby and Peterborough will fight for that right on the weekend.

Morecambe, on the other hand, have been able to lock in three wins from three, failing to lose in their recent four outings. Lincoln’s visit on Saturday saw the Shrimps 0-2 down and heading for League Two before Cole Stockton and Oumar Niasse completed a 36-minute, three-goal comeback. Those events followed a similarly intriguing 2-3 away in Charlton – another 90 minutes where Derek Adams men proved their was still life in the old Shrimp yet.

Exeter vs Morecambe Best Bet

‘All’ we need here is for the side with everything on the line – a team galvanised by recent results with a striker feeling his way back into form – to avoid defeat as they leave everything out on the pitch. The pitfalls of siding with such a team are clear. If the tie is level, it’s not only kitchen sink time, but they’ll throw their keeper and the rest of the kitchen at the cause too.

Considering how the league table lies and Exeter being free from harm for weeks and missing key players, it’s advantage Morecambe in Devon. Still, there’s a reason The Shrimps find themselves in the drop zone – two away wins all season (+ 6 draws) tells its own story.

Selection: Morecambe +0.25 Asian Handicap
Best Odds: 1.95 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Exeter vs Morecambe Tips

Fleetwood vs Ipswich Preview

England, League One, Monday, May 7th, 12:00 (UK)

This Ipswich side could b one of the best I’ve ever seen in League One. That’s not to discount Plymouth Argyle in any way, shape or form. What Steven Schumacher has achieved this season is nothing short of remarkable, and I, as a Plymouth native, will be there in the flesh for their assault on the Championship.

But the Tractor Boys, and how they’ve flourished into the side before our eyes in the latter stages, with January signings Broadhead and Hurst complimenting the on-fire Conor Chaplin, has been a joy to watch. The directive before the recent Exeter match from Kieran Mckenna was for his side to target 100 goals this season. They’re on 99, and I’d be astounded if Fleetwood can keep them at arm’s length for the entirety here.

Fleetwood vs Ipswich Best Bet

Ipswich have won 13/14 recent League One fixtures, covering the proposed Asian Handicap in 11. Furthermore, 12 of the games in this scintillating run have seen their opponents fail to score.

They’re rampant, and they’re worthy of backing with the League One title still on the line. If Argyle loses away to Port Vale, one of the few sides that beat them at Home Park this season, Ipswich can leapfrog their way into pole position.

Selection: Ipswich -1.25 Asian Handicap
Best Odds: 1.95 (Unibet)
Stakes: 10/10

More Fleetwood vs Ipswich Tips

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Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.