football | Wednesday, January 4, 2023 11:24 AM

Early Bird Best Bets: 3 Early Picks to Find Value

Sam Ingram

Early Bird Best Bets: January 7th-14th

The first Early Bird article of the season is upon us here at bettingexpert. What better place to start than an afternoon FA Cup clash between in-form Championship and Premier League opposition? Napoli’s commanding form is also in our sights, as is Derby’s visit to Cheltenham, where goals may be at a premium despite the Rams’ impressive festive season.

In this article:

Sampdoria vs Napoli Preview & Best Bet
Middlesbrough vs Brighton Preview & Best Bet
Cheltenham vs Derby Preview & Best Bet

Sampdoria vs Napoli Preview

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, January 8th, 19:45 (UK)

A rampant Napoli shouldn’t need to get out of second gear if it’s business as usual over in Italy. Both play on Wednesday evening before meeting on the weekend, and each team entertains a tricky customer away from home. Sampdoria travel to take on Sassuolo, whilst Napoli plans to raid Inter Milan in the fashion capital.

The two match day 16 fixtures should offer valuable insight into preparations over the World Cup-forced break. Before all eyes were fixed on Qatar, Sampdoria navigated their previous four matches without reply.

Nine goals to nil reads as their four most recent outings under new head coach Dejan Stanković, whose Serie A record is lopsided predominantly in favour of losses: L5/W1/D1.

This Napoli team is the last side Stanković would have picked as their first home fixture of 2023. Naples’ best presents a daunting task, currently unbeaten in Serie A with a selection of Champions League-sized scalps in the back pocket.

Sampdoria’s six points from 16 games include just one win, as 18 places separate themselves in 19th with league leaders Napoli. The main problem for I Blucerchiati is up top. More specifically, the lack of a striker putting balls into the net on a consistent basis.

Sampdoria vs Napoli Best Bet

No other Serie A side has failed to reach double figures in terms of goals scored this season. However, the 11.6xG and only six goals scored in Sampdoria colours suggest a need for underperformance in the final third to transform into over-performance sharply or risk life in Serie B next season.

The blunt attack has contributed to all 15 Sampdoria matches landing Under 4.5 goals in the top flight. The main concern here? Potentially Napoli ravaging their sluggish visitors for five.

Selection: Napoli and Under 4.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.83(bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Sampdoria vs Napoli Tips

Middlesbrough vs Brighton Preview

England, FA Cup, Saturday, January 7th, 15:00 (UK)

If you had the chance to cherry pick a side from the Championship to host a Premier League outfit with the plan to serve up goals to the masses, Middlesbrough vs Brighton would be near the top of your list. It’s a goal-laden story of two new and exciting young managers that paint the backdrop for the weekend’s FA Cup clash.

The Seagulls stretch their wings and fly north, having overseen three or more goals in 9/10 of their most recent outings under Roberto De Zerbi. The Italian’s brand of heavy metal football, coined by Jürgen Klopp to best describe the German’s take on the beautiful game, was forged in the fires of Serie A before a whistle-stop tour of Ukraine.

Now, it’s the Brighton fanbase who are free to fall head over heels for an approach best suited to a Hollywood blockbuster. A plethora of action at either end and, so far, improving results to back it up.

Brighton’s last three games over the festive season? 1-4 vs Everton, 2-4 against Arsenal, and 1-3 against fellow south coast side, Southampton.

For Middlesborough, it’s a similar story. Three or more goals has landed in their last seven games, where a defeat to Burnley is the only defeat on the otherwise 100% record. There is no doubt; Michael Carrick’s arrival has awoken the Riverside and the players proud to pull on the shirt.

There may be a gulf in quality and a sizable step up from 5th in the Championship to 8th in the Premier League. Though, this group of players won’t feel that on the weekend. Not to begin with, anyway.

Middlesbrough vs Brighton Best Bet

It’s difficult to envisage 90 minutes without goals between these two teams. Whether that’s a Brighton whitewash as the superior quality picks off the hosts as they venture forward and look for a goal, or an end-to-end battle with quality to back it up in the final third. My guess would be the latter. Don’t be surprised if Boro gives their top-tier guests a welcome which is less than comfortable.

With the likes of Chuba Akpom in an assured ravenous moment, backed up by an incoming Cameron Archer from Aston Villa (or Preston), there are goals in this Boro squad. It’s unclear whether Archer will feature in the FA Cup clash on the weekend, but his arrival should bless the squad with even more belief that the top six is within arm’s length.

And who knows, maybe Saturday’s pairing will face off in league completion next season. But before that, let’s hopefully sit down and enjoy goals by the dozen at 15:00 on Saturday.

Selection: Over 2.5 Asian Goal Line (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 1.88 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

More Middlesbrough vs Brighton Tips

Cheltenham vs Derby Preview

England, League One, Saturday, January 14th, 15:00 (UK)

Derby have the wind beneath their sails right now. The 4-0 demolition job of Accrington Stanley makes it eleven league games in a row without tasting defeat, a run which has dragged The Rams up to 4th in League One.

Paul Warne’s step down as Rotherham boss looks to now be paying dividends for his new club, as the potential to replace The Millers in the Championship gets more real after each passing win. It’s primarily Derby’s home form that stands them above the majority.

The eight victories from 12 games produces the third-best points haul in the division, lagging behind Plymouth Argyle and Sheffield Wednesday. Interestingly, at home, Derby’s Over 2.5 Goals strike rate of 8/12 sees them topping the home charts in that respect. But, on the other hand, the 2/12 or 17% of matches when travelling paints a very different picture – one where Derby keeps it tight and attempts to avoid defeat where they can.

Six draws for a team on the road is the highest total in the division, with Warne and company regularly unable to turn stalemates into something more fruitful. Derby have won just three away from home this season, trumping MK Dons, Accrington Stanley, and Cambridge United – all of which coming since October 1st versus sides in or flirting with the dreaded bottom four.

Cheltenham aren’t quite relegation fodder, though they’re not far off. Oddly so far this term, The Robins have played only two of the top six in Plymouth Argyle (0-1) and Bolton (1-0) at Whaddon Road, with the scoreline remaining conservative in each.

Cheltenham vs Derby Best Bet

In fact, Cheltenham’s 4/11 matches where 3+ goals has banked for punters at home is the second-fewest in the third tier, providing additional reassurance for the suggested pick.

Overall, taking both home and away records into account, only Lincoln (26%) boasts less than Cheltenham’s 30% of games where three or more goals have occurred.

So, in my eyes, for the score to remain low, which is often the case for both respective sides at home/away, and for an in-form Derby to avoid defeat, the odds-against offering is an inviting one.

Selection: Derby or Draw (Double Chance) and Under 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
Best Odds: 2.15 (bet365)
Stakes: 10/10

Odds via bet365 as at 09:00 January 4th, 2022 Odds may now differ.

More Cheltenham vs Derby Tips

What are Football Best Bets?

Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.