Early Bird Tips for Serie A: Juve’s climb continues

Inter Milan are back at the top of Serie A, and our football expert Daniele Fisichella returns with more Early Bird Tips for Italy’s top flight. Before we crack on, though, there’s a small matter of Champions League football for Daniele first and foremost. Make sure you catch his Line if OFF article focusing on AC Milan’s trek to Paris.

In the Early bird, this time, the focus is on Bologna, who are unbeaten since matchday one and continue to show some great football under Thiago Motta. Elsewhere, Juventus are looking to keep their momentum as they host Verona, who haven’t won since August.

Finally, Cagliari are still searching for their first three points: will they get them against Frosinone?

• Sassuolo vs Bologna: Bologna +0.25 Asian Handicap
• Juventus vs Verona: Under 1.5 Goals in the Second Half
• Cagliari vs Frosinone: Both Teams To Score – Yes

Acca odds: 5.23

Odds via bet365 as at 1.30 pm, Monday, 23rd October, 2023.

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Sassuolo vs Bologna: Motta eyes a derby win

Italy, Serie A, Saturday October 28th, 14:00 (UK)

Not only are they good on the eyes, but Bologna, this season, are also getting the results.

The Rossoblù are unbeaten in the last eight games, the longest positive streak since January 2009. In just more than twelve months, Thiago Motta has transformed a mediocre, middle-of-the-table side into a team with a distinct and forward-thinking style.

It’s a modern version of Gigi Maifredi’s “Champagne Football” with Bologna at the end of the 80s.

Bologna are seventh for ball possession in Serie A and 10th for shots taken, having scored two or more goals in all their last three matches. If they had a more prolific striker, they could seriously think about a top-seven finish.

Bologna have already played against Milan, Juventus, Napoli and Inter Milan and lost only one game. They’re currently unbeaten in seven away games, stretching back to early May.

Despite their memorable wins against Juventus (4-2) and Inter Milan (2-1), Sassuolo have two points less compared to last season and have already lost five matches: only in 2019/2020 they have lost more (six) after nine games.

Their unpredictability might make them particularly frustrating to watch (and to bet on…), but you can be almost certain they’ll concede, especially at home.

They haven’t kept a domestic clean sheet in the last nine Serie A games, and last season they drew 1-1 in this fixture.

• Selection: Bologna +0.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.68
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 10/10

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Juventus vs Verona: No fireworks, but a couple of goals ‘Max’

Italy, Serie A, Saturday October 28th, 19:45 (UK)

No other team has kept more clean sheets in Serie A in 2023 than Max Allegri’s Juventus (16). Only Barcelona has done better this year in Europe’s five major leagues, and that’s exactly how the Tuscan manager likes it.

Juve’s win at San Siro against AC Milan last Sunday sends a message to their Scudetto rivals: the Bianconeri might not be entertaining (for now), but unlike the previous two campaigns, this year they’ll fight for the title.

The goal that gave Juventus the win in Milan was extremely fortuitous, but Juve, in a way, made their own luck by staying compact and allowing Rafael Leao & co close to no chances (Milan xG was 0.24 in the end) when the Rosseneri were still playing with 11 men.

Juventus squad still looks depleted (Danilo, Alex Sandro, De Sciglio, Fagioli and Pogba will all miss this game), but in this case, not playing in Europe in mid-week represents a blessing in disguise.

Verona hasn’t yet reached panic station but are winless in seven games and was outclassed by Napoli at the weekend.

In the previous four games, they haven’t managed to get close to 1.0xG per game.
This looks like an ominous task for the Scaligeri, who last season only collected ten points away from home and got beaten 1-0 at the Juventus Stadium.

• Selection: Under 1.5 Goals in the Second Half
• Best Odds: 1.73
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 8/10

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Cagliari vs Frosinone: they went up together; will they be saved together?

Italy, Serie A, Sunday October 29th, 11.30 (UK)

After a crazy end of the game in Salerno, with four goals scored in the last 14 minutes, Cagliari are still winless in Serie A. The situation starts to be concerning for the Sardinians, who earned promotion via the play-off last season and so far have the second-worst attack (five goals, three of them scored by Luvumbo) and second-worst defence (18 conceded, nine of which in the last three games).

Are Claudio Ranieri’s side good enough to achieve salvation? The game against fellow newly-promoted side Frosinone will tell us more about Cagliari’s fate.

So far, they’ve made a couple of mistakes at the back, not only from their goalkeeper Radunovic (who in the last two games has been replaced by Scuffet) and their lack of composure in front of goal. Looking at the xG figures, they should have at least four more points on the table.

Frosinone have scored in seven out of their nine encounters: they’re one of the youngest sides in Serie A, with three goalscorers (Soulé, Reiner and Monterisi) born in the 2000s, and always entertaining to watch.

The Ciociari have only kept a clean sheet (away to Udinese, although the xGs for both sides in that game were over four) and sit a comfortable six points above the drop. It’s unlikely this is going to be a low-scoring game.

• Selection: Both Teams To Score – Yes (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 9/10

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