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Genoa vs Atalanta prediction, team news, standing and lineups preview is our second Serie A’s piece this week after the one on AC Milan vs Napoli.
And who better than our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, to assess each team’s chances ahead of what promises to be a feisty encounter at the Luigi Ferraris.
Both teams are in splendid form, the hosts are unbeaten in eight matches and are eleven points above the relegation places, whereas Atalanta have won four of the last five and have Serie A’s third best attack.
In this article:
Italy, Serie A, Sunday, February 11th, 17:00 (UK)
At the weekend, Gian Piero Gasperini achieved his 150th win since he’s been at the helm of Atalanta. Eight years after his arrival in Bergamo from Genoa, ‘Gasp’ continues to impress and surprise with the way his teams combine tactical acumen and attacking football.
Since December, the Bergamaschi have found the right balance, and their results have been impressive: eight wins in 10 games in all competitions. At the weekend, they put three past Lazio, who were unbeaten in five games, with extreme ease and looks like they’re the favourite to finish in the fourth spot.
Charles De Kateleare continues to shine (two goals at the weekend, five so far in Serie A), Mario Pasalic confirmed he’s ‘mister reliable’ (against Lazio he scored his 41st goal, more than any other midfielder in Serie A since 2018/2019) as Atalanta show they’re not struggling with the absence of their top goal scorer, Ademola Lookman, who’s playing at the AFCON.
The home form that often in the past let down the Orobici is not an issue this season.
In fact, Atalanta have won their last three games at the Gewiss Stadium but have not kept a clean sheet in their last four away games where they’ve only collected two points (against Udinese and Roma).
That’s an aspect where Atalanta can improve: they’ve only kept three away clean sheets in Serie A (four in all competitions), and have conceded 14 times.
The hosts, unbeaten since 10 December (1-0 away to Monza), have been particularly strong at home so far, where they’ve only lost twice and have taken up points from most of Italy’s top sides.
Newly promoted Genoa have beaten Roma (4-1), drew 1-1 against Inter and Juve and 2-2 against Napoli, failing to score only on two occasions (1-0 vs AC Milan and 0-0 vs Torino).
The hosts are an extremely organized and pugnacious side, with one of Serie A’s best goalkeeper (Martinez) and an inspired striker in Albert Guðmundsson (nine goals).
In January, Alberto Gilardino’s side added Vitinha, signed from Olympique Marseille, to their front line in the hope they could add that much-needed cutting edge.
Genoa are extremely effective: 12th for goals scored but penultimate for shots taken. They’re also the team that has hit the woodwork more times in Serie A (13 times).
Resilience is probably the best quality of Gilardino’s men as they top the table (alongside Napoli) for points rescued (11) from a losing position.
Genoa have conceded the first goal in 13 out of 23 games but have demonstrated to have the character and the resources in their squad to manage to get games back on track.
Both against Juventus and Inter, in front of their home crowd, they equalized after going behind, and in their recent 2-1 win against Lecce, they recovered superbly after a poor display in the first 45 minutes.
Being 11 points adrift of the relegation zone, the Grifoni have built a healthy lead that will allow them to have no fear till the end of the season.
Only two teams in Serie A, Udinese (13) and Lecce (9), have drawn more games than the hosts who are chasing a historic record. In fact, only twice in their history have they remained unbeaten for nine consecutive games: between November 2008 and February 2009 and October and December 2014.
On both occasions, their manager was Gian Piero Gasperini, a man who, more than anybody, would love to keep his record intact come Sunday.
Genoa vs Atalanta Prediction odds via bet365 as at 13:30, February 5th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
The hosts will be without De Winter (suspended), Haps, Martin and Messias, so Alberto Gilardino should choose former Atalanta player Ruslan Malinovskyi over Strootman. Fendrup will be confirmed in the middle of the park, and Vitinha will start the bench.
Ederson has been booked against Lazio and is suspended; Teun Koopmeiners might be fit to start after missing two games due to injury.
Miranchuk should play behind Scamacca and De Ketelaere, but Pasalic is also in contention for a start. Ademola Lookman is still at the AFCON, and Hien, signed in January from Verona, is injured.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Matturro, Bani, Vasquez; Spence, Frendrup, Badelj, Sabelli; Malinovskyi; Retegui, Gudmundsson
Atalanta possible starting lineup:
Carnesecchi; Scalvini, Djimsiti, Kolasinac; Holm, De Roon, Koopmeiners, Ruggeri; Miranchuk; De Ketelaere, Scamacca
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the Genoa vs Atalanta, currently 11th vs 4th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Inter | 38 | 28.2 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 86.5 | 24.5 | 62.1 | 90.9 |
2 | Juventus | 38 | 25.3 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 61.7 | 24.2 | 37.5 | 84.9 |
3 | AC Milan | 38 | 21.4 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 69.8 | 45.6 | 24.2 | 71.9 |
4 | Atalanta | 38 | 18.6 | 7.2 | 12.2 | 62.1 | 40.6 | 21.5 | 63.1 |
5 | Napoli | 38 | 17.9 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 59.7 | 43.8 | 15.9 | 62.5 |
6 | Lazio | 38 | 17.4 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 45.2 | 36.0 | 9.2 | 60.8 |
7 | AS Roma | 38 | 16.8 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 56.9 | 43.1 | 13.9 | 59.6 |
8 | Bologna | 38 | 14.9 | 13.7 | 9.5 | 46.0 | 37.8 | 8.2 | 58.3 |
9 | Fiorentina | 38 | 16.3 | 8.3 | 13.4 | 51.4 | 44.7 | 6.7 | 57.1 |
10 | Torino | 38 | 14.1 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 38.7 | 37.9 | 0.8 | 54.0 |
11 | Genoa | 38 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 14.7 | 38.8 | 44.8 | -6.0 | 46.8 |
12 | Monza | 38 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 15.6 | 38.6 | 52.6 | -14.0 | 45.3 |
13 | Frosinone | 38 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 18.7 | 48.9 | 68.3 | -19.4 | 40.6 |
14 | Sassuolo | 38 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 19.4 | 48.0 | 63.1 | -15.2 | 39.8 |
15 | Lecce | 38 | 8.5 | 12.7 | 16.7 | 40.4 | 58.1 | -17.7 | 38.4 |
16 | Udinese | 38 | 7.3 | 16.0 | 14.7 | 42.6 | 59.5 | -16.9 | 38.0 |
17 | Cagliari | 38 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 19.6 | 41.0 | 64.8 | -23.9 | 36.0 |
18 | Verona | 38 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 19.4 | 35.8 | 52.6 | -16.7 | 35.3 |
19 | Empoli | 38 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 20.6 | 30.9 | 59.4 | -28.4 | 34.0 |
20 | Salernitana | 38 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 23.7 | 33.2 | 74.9 | -41.7 | 24.1 |
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