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Our expert, Scott Thornton, brings you his Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund predictions, tips and best bets preview as we brace ourselves for a busy week in the Bundesliga.
Edin Terzic’s side are looking to build momentum after they climbed into the Champions League places with a win over Bochum. Heidenheim will also be happy with recent results and have a nice cushion between themselves and the relegation zone.
In this article:
Germany, Bundesliga, Friday, February 2nd, 19:30 (UK)
Heidenheim have enjoyed a tremendous run since being promoted to the Bundesliga. They currently sit 10th in the table and are 11 points above the relegation zone. Their home form has been a key factor in their success. They have lost just two of their nine league matches in front of their own fans. However, their opponents are full of confidence coming into this clash.
The winter break came just at the right time for Dortmund. Terzic’s men looked burnt out and only managed to win one of their eight Bundesliga games before the festive period. Things are looking rosier, with February fast approaching. They’ve scored ten goals in three games since the restart and are looking to make it four wins from four here.
Borussia Dortmund squandered a two-goal lead in the reverse fixture between these slides and had to settle for a point. Terzic will be keen to exact revenge here, and complacency shouldn’t be an issue as his side battle to remain in the top four.
Heidenheim haven’t been afraid to have a go this season. It has led to some thoroughly entertaining matches, and their willingness to attack has certainly paid dividends. They rank in the top half of the division in terms of home xG. While they should come out second best here, expect them to contribute to the goal count. There has been an average of 3.67 goals per league game at the Voith-Arena in this campaign.
Dortmund have looked deadly in recent weeks, but they have showcased some defensive frailty on the road this season. Their away matches in the league have seen the net found 3.73 times on average.
Frank Schmidt’s side looked dead and buried at the break in the last head-to-head with Dortmund. They found themselves two behind after 15 minutes. However, they racked up 11 attempts in the second half of the match and salvaged a draw with an 82nd-minute penalty. The home side are deservedly the underdogs, but expect them to show plenty of attacking impetus once again and threaten the 3.5 line.
With goals seemingly on the agenda once again, it makes sense to back a player to score. The goals have been spread out amongst the Dortmund squad this season, but Niclas Fulkrug is undoubtedly the man in form. His hat trick in their last match against Bochum made him the club’s top sorcerer in the Bundesliga this season. He leads Donyell Malen with a tally of nine goals.
Fulkrug is averaging 2.5 shots per 90 minutes played in the league, and this has translated to 0.6 goals per 90 minutes.
Heidenheim are making an average of 13.72 fouls per game in the league this season; only Mainz have made more. They have also given away the most penalties, with all nine being converted by the opposition. Fulkrug has scored three penalties in his last two matches for Dortmund and will be called upon if they win a penalty here, so this bet appeals dispute the short price.
Heindehiem vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:10, January 29th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Heidenheim’s Thomas Keller is their only long-term injury. He has a cruciate ligament tear and won’t return until the final few matches of the season. Another of their centre-backs, Benedikt Gimber, came off injured in the draw with Hoffenheim.
Dortmund are likely to be without Sebastian Haller once again. His Ivory Coast side faces Senegal in the last 16 of the African Cup of Nations. Even if they are eliminated, it will be too short of a turnaround for him to feature here. Ramy Bensebaini’s Algeria were eliminated at the group stage, but he has a hip problem. Marcos Reus has been suffering from illness but could be in line for a return on Friday.
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Bundesliga table by using the plethora of underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
POSITION | CLUB | GAME | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 26.0 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 96.1 | 28.9 | 67.3 | 82.4 |
2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 25.3 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 85.5 | 29.9 | 55.6 | 81.9 |
3 | Stuttgart | 34 | 20.6 | 4.0 | 9.4 | 73.6 | 41.6 | 32.0 | 65.8 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 19.2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 73.6 | 40.4 | 33.2 | 63.7 |
5 | Dortmund | 34 | 16.6 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 69.7 | 51.5 | 18.2 | 59.0 |
6 | Freiburg | 34 | 14.0 | 7.7 | 12.3 | 48.1 | 52.9 | -4.8 | 49.8 |
7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 51.3 | 47.8 | 3.5 | 48.6 |
8 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 14.7 | 61.0 | 64.8 | -3.8 | 45.5 |
9 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 16.1 | 42.5 | 54.6 | -12.1 | 40.5 |
10 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 14.8 | 46.8 | 56.1 | -9.2 | 40.3 |
11 | Augsburg | 34 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 14.4 | 47.4 | 60.3 | -12.9 | 39.8 |
12 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 15.4 | 58.8 | 67.9 | -9.1 | 39.5 |
13 | Bochum | 34 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 42.8 | 62.0 | -19.1 | 39.2 |
14 | Heidenheim | 34 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 17.1 | 46.5 | 68.2 | -21.6 | 36.3 |
15 | Union Berlin | 34 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 18.6 | 38.9 | 59.1 | -20.2 | 34.5 |
16 | Mainz | 34 | 7.1 | 12.1 | 14.8 | 34.7 | 52.1 | -17.4 | 33.3 |
17 | FC Koln | 34 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 20.1 | 29.7 | 67.1 | -37.4 | 25.3 |
18 | Darmstadt | 34 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 20.9 | 37.9 | 80.1 | -42.2 | 22.9 |
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