History Says.....Bet On Experience At the World Cup

How important is World Cup experience? Do World Cups with more experience outperform the betting market, or do nations with less World Cup experience surprise bookmaker expectations?

In this article:

• Debut Nations at the World Cup
• Betting Against Debut Nations at the World Cup
• World Cup Experience: Appearances
• World Cup Experience: Matches Played
• Betting on Experience: Appearances
• Betting on Experience: Matches Played
• Experience Mismatches at the 2022 World Cup

In this analysis I will be taking a look at the performance of nations based on their World Cup experience. Firstly I will examine the performance of nations based on the number of appearances they have made at World Cup tournaments while also looking at results of matches based on the differential in appearance experience between the competing teams.

Secondly, I will look at performance of nations based on the number of World Cup matches they have played, specifically the results of matches based on the differentials of World Cup matches played between the competing teams.

I will then take a look at betting results for both appearance and matches played differentials. Betting results have been determined by betting at even stakes, i.e betting a single unit on each possible outcome in a given betting market. I have used average odds adjusted to standard bookmaker commission of 4.5% with odds provided from my own archives with gaps filled by data from BetExplorer.

I have excluded 3rd place playoffs with knockout stage match results determined by the result at the conclusion of regular time with extra time and penalties excluded.

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Debut Nations at the World Cup

Let’s begin with the least experienced nations. Nations making their debut at the World Cup.

Below are the results for debut nations when facing opponents with previous World Cup experience categorised by decade.

Table 1: Performance of World Cup debut nations vs experienced World Cup nations each decade

Decade	Matches	Won	Draw	Lost	Ave Pts	Ave GD
1930s	12	6	4	2	1.83	+0.00
1950s	23	5	6	12	0.91	-1.35
1960s	13	4	3	6	1.15	-0.62
1970s	28	2	8	18	0.50	-1.82
1980s	22	5	6	11	0.95	-0.73
1990s	30	7	7	16	0.93	-0.87
2000s	35	7	8	20	0.83	-0.86
2010s	13	2	2	9	0.62	-1.08

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We can see that as an increasing number of inferior footballing nations enter the World Cup, the average points per match drops for debut nations..

Since the 1990 World Cup, debut nations have won a total of 16 World Cup matches from 78 matches, earning an average of 0.83 points per match. Previous to 1990, debut nations won an average of 0.95 points per match, with debut nations through the 1930s and 50s earning 1.23 points per match.

The table below shows the performance of debut nations facing nations with World Cup experience in each tournament.

Table 2: Performance of World Cup debut nations vs experienced World Cup nations each tournament.

Year	Matches	Won	Draw	Lost	Pts	GD
1934	6	5	1	0	2.67	2.17
1938	6	1	3	2	1.00	-2.17
1950	3	1	0	2	1.00	+0.00
1954	5	0	0	5	0.00	-5.00
1958	15	4	6	5	1.20	-0.40
1962	6	0	2	4	0.33	-2.00
1966	7	4	1	2	1.86	+0.57
1970	9	0	3	6	0.33	-1.67
1974	13	1	3	9	0.46	-2.38
1978	6	1	2	3	0.83	-0.83
1982	15	2	6	7	0.80	-1.00
1986	7	3	0	4	1.29	-0.14
1990	12	2	4	6	0.83	-1.00
1994	9	3	1	5	1.11	-0.78
1998	9	2	2	5	0.89	-0.78
2002	14	2	4	8	0.71	-1.07
2006	21	5	4	12	0.90	-0.71
2010	4	1	1	2	1.00	-0.50
2014	3	1	0	2	1.00	+0.00
2018	6	0	1	5	0.17	-2.00
TOTAL	176	38	44	94	0.90	-1.00

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In the last three World Cup tournaments, debut nations have won just two of 13 matches played, earning just 0.62 points per match while suffering an average goal difference of -1.08 goals per match.

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Betting Against Debut Nations

If we take a look at the betting markets, we see that since 1998 betting against debut nations has proven to be profitable in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets.

Table 3: Performance of World Cup debut nations vs experienced World Cup nations 1X2 market since 1998.

1X2 MARKET	Matches	Won	Draw	Lost	Won P/L	Draw P/L	Loss P/L
Debut Nations	57	11	12	34	-12.28	-15.33	+3.69

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If you had been on experienced nations against debut nations at the World Cup since 1998, you would have seen a profit of +3.69 units from 57 matches in the 1X2 market, a return of +6.5%.

Meanwhile in the Asian handicap market, betting against debut nations when facing experienced World Cup nations would have seen a profit of +8.85 units from 57 matches, a return of +15.5%, with a win rate of 58.6%.

Table 4: Performance of World Cup debut nations vs experienced World Cup nations Asian handicap market since 1998.

ASIAN HANDICAP MARKET	Matches	Ah Win	Ah Loss	Ah Win P/L	Ah Loss P/L
Debut Nations	57	24	34	-11.63	+8.85

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In the 2022 World Cup we will see Qatar,. a debut nation, host the World Cup, something that has not happened since Italy hosted the 1934 making their World Cup debut.

I wrote in another article looking at the advantage host nations enjoy at the World Cup. This advantage could well be mitigated given Qatar’s status as a debut nation.

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World Cup Experience: Appearances

Before we begin digging into the data, it’s obvious that nations with more World Cup experience will outperform those inexperienced nations, simply for the fact that greater World Cup experience reflects superior performance in international football.

Below we see the performance of nations competing at the World Cup based on the number of times they have appeared at a World Cup tournament.

Table 5: Performance of nations by appearance at a World Cup

Appearance	Matches	Won	Draw	Lost	Ave Pts	Ave GD
21st	5	3	1	1	2.00	+1
20th	6	3	2	1	1.83	+0
19th	8	4	1	3	1.63	+0.38
18th	15	9	3	3	2.00	+1.27
17th	20	12	3	5	1.95	+1
16th	31	18	9	4	2.03	+0.68
15th	44	27	12	5	2.11	+0.95
14th	34	16	9	9	1.68	+0.5
13th	49	27	12	10	1.90	+0.53
12th	60	38	11	11	2.08	+0.78
11th	64	24	24	16	1.50	+0.3
10th	78	30	31	17	1.55	+0.4
9th	95	46	29	20	1.76	+0.45
8th	93	35	21	37	1.35	+0.1
7th	113	39	35	39	1.35	+0.06
6th	130	43	30	57	1.22	0
5th	153	50	46	57	1.28	0
4th	153	47	45	61	1.22	-0.08
3rd	177	51	41	85	1.10	-0.39
2nd	185	58	47	80	1.19	-0.26
1st	249	71	48	130	1.05	-0.72

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We can see that the greater the experience, the greater the performance. In combination, nations with seven World Cup appearances or more have collected a positive goal difference, while nations with six or fewer World Cup experiences are break-even or in the negative in terms of average goal difference.

If we look at appearance differentials, meaning the difference between the number of World Cups the two competing nations have appeared in, we clearly see that the nations with greater World Cup experience impose themselves on those less experienced nations.

Table 6: Results of matches by appearance differential at World Cups

Appearance diff.	Matches	Won	Draw	Loss	Ave Pts	GD
17	3	3	0	0	3.00	+2
16	6	4	1	1	2.17	+1.5
15	12	10	2	0	2.67	+1.42
14	9	6	2	1	2.22	+1.67
13	8	5	0	3	1.88	+0.5
12	11	7	3	1	2.18	+1.91
11	25	21	3	1	2.64	+1.64
10	31	19	8	4	2.10	+0.87
9	29	15	9	5	1.86	+0.59
8	45	28	8	9	2.04	+0.82
7	47	29	7	11	2.00	+0.66
6	61	34	18	9	1.97	+0.87
5	63	30	16	17	1.68	+0.62
4	81	43	24	14	1.89	+0.88
3	85	35	33	17	1.62	+0.31
2	123	57	31	35	1.64	+0.6
1	123	40	40	43	1.30	+0.16

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World Cup Experience: Matches Played

We see similarities when we go beyond World Cup appearances and look at the total number of matches each nation has played at the World Cup.

Below are the results for matches played between nations based on the differential in the number of World Cup matches played by the two nations.

Table 7: Results of matches by matches played differential at World Cups

Games Diff.	Matches	Won	Draw	Loss	Ave Pts	Ave GD
1-9	291	121	79	91	1.52	+0.43
10-19	173	76	59	38	1.66	+0.55
20-29	134	72	35	27	1.87	+0.84
30-39	90	51	23	16	1.96	+0.67
40-49	55	33	16	6	2.09	+0.96
50-59	32	22	4	6	2.19	+0.97
60-69	24	19	2	3	2.46	+1.21
70-79	21	13	4	4	2.05	+1.19
80+	14	12	2	0	2.71	+2.00

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We can see that the greater the differential in World Cup games played, the greater the performance of the superior team. For example, nations enjoying an advantage of over 80 games played at the World Cup, are undefeated while winning 12 of 14 matches played between such teams.

We can also see that in compositie, nations with even a minimal advantage of between just one and nine matches, see an average goal difference of +0.43 goals and win percentage of just under 42%.

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Betting on Experience: Appearances

Nations with greater experience have exceeded market expectations in World Cups since 1998.

The table below shows the results in the 1X2 betting market, based on appearance differentials between nations.

Table 8: Results of matches by appearances differential at World Cups in the 1X2 market since 1998

Appearance diff.	Matches	Won P/L	Draw P/l	Loss P/L
17	3	+1.18	-3	-3
16	6	-0.94	-0.76	+0.95
15	12	+3.3	-0.53	-12
14	9	-0.22	-0.47	-2.53
13	8	-1.44	-7	+10.25
12	11	-0.7	-1.57	-5.01
11	25	+6.43	-7.3	-19
TOTAL	74	+7.61	-20.63	-30.34

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We can see that betting on nations with an experience differential of at least 11 World Cups has been profitable, returning +7.61 units from 74 matches played where a nation had such an advantage in experience, a return of +10.3%.

Table 9: Results of matches by appearances differential at World Cups in the Asian handicap market since 1998

Appearance diff.	Matches	Ah Won	Ah Loss	Ah Won P/L	Ah Loss P/L
17	3	2	1	+0.85	-1.11
16	6	4	3	+1.02	-1.36
15	12	6	6	+0.15	-1.01
14	9	5	4	+0.32	-0.89
13	8	4	4	-0.5	-0.26
12	11	4	5	-0.92	-0.14
11	25	11	8	+3.41	-3.73
TOTAL	74	36	30	+4.33	-8.49

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It has been similar in the Asian handicap market, with nations holding an advantage of 11 World Cup appearances over their opponents, returning a profit of +4.33 units from the same 74 matches played, a return of +5.9% profit.

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Betting on Experience: Matches Played

When considering the differential in games played, nations with an advantage of at least 50 games played at the World Cup have been profitable to back in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets.

Table 10: Results of matches by matches played differential at World Cups in the 1X2 market since 1998

Games Played Diff.	Matches	Won P/L	Draw P/L	Loss P/L
50-59	22	+2.52	-15.7	+1.47
60-69	20	+3.36	-11.93	-5.99
70-79	21	-1.4	-2.48	+15.64
80+	14	+2.86	-2.94	-14
TOTAL	77	+7.34	-33.05	-2.88

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In 1X2 betting, nations with at least 50 more games played have returned a profit of +7.34 units from 77 matches played, a return of +9.5%.

In Asian handicap betting, nations with at least 50 more games of World Cup experience have been profitable, though by a slight margin. If you had backed each of these nations at even stakes you would have seen a profit of +1.98 units from the same 77 matches, a return of +2.6%, with a win rate of just under 53%.

Table 11: Results of matches by matches played differential at World Cups in the Asian handicap market since 1998

Games Played Diff.	Matches	Ah Won	Ah Lost	Ah Won P/L	Ah Lost P/L
50-59	22	10.5	11.5	-1.35	+0.26
60-69	20	11	9	+1.59	-2.4
70-79	21	9.25	11.75	-3.46	+1.33
80+	14	9.75	4.25	+5.2	-5.9
TOTAL	77	40.5	36.5	+1.98	-6.71

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However, increasing the games differential improves the profit to +3.33 units from 55 matches, a return of just over 6% and a win rate of 54.5%.

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Experience Mismatches at the 2022 World Cup

At the 2022 World Cup, there are fifteen matches in the group stage where a nation will have an experience advantage of at least 10 World Cups between themselves and their opponents.

Further, there will be 10 matches in the group stage where a nation enjoys an experience advantage of at least 50 World Cup matches.

Combined, there are nine matches at the 2022 World Cup where a nation will enjoy both an advantage of at least 10 World Cups and at least 50 World Cup matches. These are:

Table 12: Matches at the 2022 World Cup where nations have significant advantage in experience

Group	Round	Date	Match	Advantage	Appearance Diff	Games Diff
Group B	1	21-Nov	England vs Iran	England	+10	+53
Group C	1	22-Nov	Argentina vs Saudi Arabia	Argentina	+12	+65
Group D	1	22-Nov	France vs Australia	France	+10	+50
Group E	1	23-Nov	Germany vs Japan	Germany	+13	+88
Group G	2	28-Nov	Brazil vs Switzerland	Brazil	+10	+72
Group B	3	29-Nov	England vs Wales	England	+14	+63
Group D	3	30-Nov	France vs Tunisia	France	+10	+51
Group E	3	1-Dec	Germany vs Costa Rica	Germany	+14	+91
Group G	3	2-Dec	Brazil vs Cameroon	Brazil	+14	+86

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Betting on Experience at the 2022 World Cup

Experienced World Cup nations are inherently better footballing nations. We have seen in this analysis that nations with an advantage in experience have not only been superior to less experienced nations, but in composite they have been profitable to back in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets.

Likewise, debut nations have struggled to perform even to market expectations. With Qatar playing the role as debut hosts, it will be interesting to see if the advantage of playing on home soil mitigates their lack of experience at the 2022 World Cup.

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• Football betting analysis at bettingexpert News
• World Cup betting analysis at bettingexpert News