football | Thursday, October 20, 2022 11:26 AM (Revised at: Thursday, October 20, 2022 12:59 PM)

History Says.....Bet on South American Nations at the World Cup

Andrew Brocker

Which football confederations have dominated the World Cup? Have any confederations traditionally exceeded betting market expectations?

In this article:

Confederation vs Confederation at the World Cup
Confederations vs Rival Confederations
Confederation vs Confederation World Cup Betting

In this analysis, I have taken a look at how nations from the six world football confederations compete when playing against nations from a rival confederation. I have further taken a look at how each confederation performs when facing each opposing confederation. I have excluded 3rd place playoffs with knockout stage match results determined by the result at the conclusion of regular time with extra time and penalties excluded.

Lastly, I have taken a look at confederation versus confederation betting in the 1X2, Asian handicap and Over Under 2.5 goals markets. Betting results have been determined by betting at even stakes, i.e betting a single unit on each possible outcome in a given betting market. I have used average odds adjusted to standard bookmaker commission of 4.5% with odds provided from my own archives with gaps filled by data from BetExplorer.

The Six FIFA Confederations:

AFC – Asian Football Confederation
CAF – Confederation of African Football
CONCACAF – Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football
CONMEBOL – South American Football Confederation
OFC – Oceania Football Confederation
UEFA – Union of European Football Associations

For the purposes of this article I have assigned each team historically to the confederation they are now currently members of.

Confederation vs Confederation at the World Cup

Let’s begin by taking a look at how each confederation performs when opposing a member of a rival confederation.

Table 1: Overall records of confederation nations vs rival confederations at the World Cup

Confederation	Matches	WON	DRAW	LOST	AVE Pts
CONMEBOL	310	148	75	87	1.67
UEFA	484	223	130	131	1.65
CONCACAF	137	29	33	75	0.88
CAF	142	26	44	72	0.86
AFC	119	17	27	75	0.66
OFC	6	0	3	3	0.50

The table above shows match results for each World Cup match featuring nations of rival confederations.

As we may have expected, European (UEFA) and South American (CONMEBOL) nations have dominated the World Cup. CONMEBOL nations have won nearly 48% of their matches against rival nations, while UEFA nations have a win rate of 46%.

CONMEBOL nations have earned an average of 1.67 match points per match with UEFA nations just off the pace with 1.65 points. North and Central American nations (CONCACAF) have won an average of 0.88 points with African nations (CAF) just short at 0.86 points while Asian nations (AFC) have struggled with just 0.66 points per match.

Table 2: Average goals of confederation nations vs rival confederations at the World Cup

Confederation	Matches	Ave GF	Ave GA	Ave GD
UEFA	484	1.63	1.09	+0.54
CONMEBOL	310	1.58	1.14	+0.44
CAF	142	0.92	1.57	-0.65
CONCACAF	137	0.91	1.96	-1.05
AFC	119	0.76	2.04	-1.28
OFC	6	0.67	2.33	-1.67

In terms of goal difference, European nations have dominated, earning an average of +0.54 goals in matches with rival confederations while South American nations have seen +0.44 goals. All other nations are in the negative with Africa nations the only confederation to not concede an average goal difference of greater than 1 goal in World Cup matches with rival confederations.

Confederations vs Rival Confederations

Let’s start by taking a look now at how nations outside of Europe have competed against European nations at the World Cup.

Confederations vs European Nations

Table 3: Overall records of confederation nations vs UEFA nations at the World Cup

vs UEFA	Matches	W	D	L	Pts
CONMEBOL	229	89	60	80	1.43
CAF	88	17	28	43	0.90
CONCACAF	91	16	25	50	0.80
AFC	72	9	15	48	0.58
OFC	4	0	2	2	0.50

As we would expect, it’s South American nations that have competed the best against European opposition.

CONMEBOL nations have earned 1.43 points per match against European nations, winning just under 39% of matches played, a total of 89 of 226 matches. Meanwhile, African nations outperformed North and Central American nations earning 0.9 points per match against European nations.

Table 4: Average goals of confederation nations vs UEFA nations at the World Cup

vs UEFA	Matches	Ave GF	Ave GA	Ave GD
CONMEBOL	229	1.4	1.31	+0.09
CAF	88	0.89	1.56	-0.67
CONCACAF	91	0.85	1.99	-1.14
OFC	4	1	2.5	-1.5
AFC	72	0.69	2.25	-1.56

When it comes to goal difference, it’s a close call, with South American nations achieving a goal difference of +0.09 goals per match against European opposition across the history of the World Cup.

Confederations vs South American Nations

Table 5: Overall records of confederation nations vs CONMEBOL nations at the World Cup

vs CONMEBOL	Matches	W	D	L	Pts
UEFA	229	80	60	89	1.31
CONCACAF	29	4	4	21	0.55
OFC	2	0	1	1	0.50
CAF	28	2	6	20	0.43
AFC	22	1	4	17	0.32

When facing South American opposition, European nations have won an average of 1.31 points per match, winning just under 35% of match ups, a total of 80 of 226 matches played.

Table 6: Average goals of confederation nations vs CONMEBOL nations at the World Cup

vs CONMEBOL	Matches	Ave GF	Ave GA	Ave GD
UEFA	229	1.31	1.4	-0.09
CAF	28	0.71	1.93	-1.21
AFC	22	0.5	1.95	-1.45
CONCACAF	29	0.79	2.41	-1.62
OFC	2	0	2	-2

In terms of goal difference, not one confederation has a positive record against South American nations. European nations are -0.09 goals per game against South American nations with every other confederation suffering a goal difference of greater than 1 goal against South American nations.

Confederations vs North and Central American Nations

Table 7: Overall records of confederation nations vs CONCACAF nations at the World Cup

vs CONCACAF	Matches	W	D	L	Pts
CONMEBOL	29	21	4	4	2.31
UEFA	91	50	25	16	1.92
CAF	9	3	3	3	1.33
AFC	8	1	1	6	0.50

South Americans have dominated against their North and Central American rivals winning 21 of 29 matches played at the World Cup, earning 2.31 points per match on average. European nations have done similar, winning 50 of 91 matches played against North and Central American nations.

Table 8: Average goals of confederation nations vs CONCACAF nations at the World Cup

vs CONCACAF	Matches	Ave GF	Ave GA	Ave GD
CONMEBOL	29	2.41	0.79	+1.62
UEFA	91	1.99	0.85	+1.14
CAF	9	1.11	1	+0.11
AFC	8	0.88	1.88	-1

In terms of goal difference, South Americans have been +1.62 goals per match better than North and Central American nations, while European nations have achieved a rate of +1.14 goals per match.

Confederations vs African Nations

Table 9: Overall records of confederation nations vs CAF nations at the World Cup

vs CAF	Matches	W	D	L	Pts
CONMEBOL	28	20	6	2	2.36
UEFA	88	43	28	17	1.78
AFC	17	6	7	4	1.47
CONCACAF	9	3	3	3	1.33

African nations have beaten South American nations just twice at the World Cup, conceding 2.36 points per match to rivals from CONMEBOL while European nations have won just under half their matches against African nations.

Table 10: Average goals of confederation nations vs CAF nations at the World Cup

vs CAF	Matches	Ave GF	Ave GA	Ave GD
CONMEBOL	28	1.93	0.71	+1.21
UEFA	88	1.56	0.89	+0.67
AFC	17	1.35	1.35	0
CONCACAF	9	1	1.11	-0.11

Again South Americans dominate when it comes to goal difference, combining for +1.21 goals per match against African nations while Europeans are just +0.67 goals better across the history of the World Cup when opposing African nations.

North and Central American nations are the only nations to suffer a negative goal difference when facing African nations, an average of -0.11 goals per match.

Confederations vs Asian Nations

Table 11: Overall records of confederation nations vs AFC nations at the World Cup

vs AFC	Matches	W	D	L	Pts
CONMEBOL	22	17	4	1	2.50
CONCACAF	8	6	1	1	2.38
UEFA	72	48	15	9	2.21
CAF	17	4	7	6	1.12

Asian nations have had the worst of the action across the history of the World Cup, winning a total of just 11 matches from 102 against American and European nations.

Table 12: Average goals of confederation nations vs AFC nations at the World Cup

vs AFC	Matches	Ave GF	Ave GA	Ave GD
UEFA	72	2.25	0.69	+1.56
CONMEBOL	22	1.95	0.5	+1.45
CONCACAF	8	1.88	0.88	+1
CAF	17	1.35	1.35	0

European nations have a combined +1.56 goals per match differential against Asian nations while South Americans have been +1.45 goals superior. Through eight matches played, North and Central American nations have enjoyed a goal difference of +1 goal against Asian nations.

Confederation vs Confederation World Cup Betting

Confederation vs Confederation: 1X2 Market

Table 13: Confederation vs Confederation 1X2 Market Profitability

Confederation	Matches	W P/L	D P/L	L P/L
AFC	84	-19.27	-15.3	+0.73
CAF	101	-38.2	+8.85	+5.7
CONCACAF	70	-8.74	+6.03	-7.35
CONMEBOL	125	-0.32	-17.36	-32.14
OFC	3	-3	+11.36	-3
UEFA	225	-8.67	+18.56	-42.14

Looking at 1X2 betting from 1998 onwards, no one confederation has outperformed the market.

However South American nations have been the best, seeing a loss of just 0.32 units across 125 matches played against rival confederations. Had you bet against South American nations in the 1X2 market, you would have suffered a loss of over 32 units at even stakes, a loss of 25.7%.

While no one confederation has been profitable to bet on, betting against both Asian and African nations would have seen you return a profit, a total of 6.43 units across 185 matches combined.

In terms of draw betting, the best performing confederation was UEFA, returning a profit of +18.56 units on the draw across 225 matches against rival confederations.

Confederation vs Confederation: Asian handicap Market

Table 14: Confederation vs Confederation Asian handicap Market Profitability

Confederation	Matches	Ah W	Ah L	Ah W P/L	Ah L P/L
AFC	84	44	40	+1.03	-6.99
CAF	101	46	55	-12.28	+5.96
CONCACAF	70	37	33	+0.7	-6.45
CONMEBOL	125	64	61	+0.32	-6.38
OFC	3	3	0	+2.63	-3
UEFA	225	110	115	-12.78	-3.53

While European nations were the best performing in the draw market, they have been the worst performing in Asian handicap betting. Had you bet on each European nation in the Asian handicap market since 1998, you would have suffered a loss of 12.78 units across 225 matches.

African nations also delivered a loss in Asian handicap betting, while betting against African nations returned a profit of just under 6 units across their 101 matches against rival confederations.

Confederation vs Confederation: Over Under 2.5 Goals

Table 15: Confederation vs Confederation Over Under 2.5 goals Market Profitability

Confederation	Matches	Over 2.5	Over 2.5 %	> 2.5 P/L	< 2.5 P/L
AFC	84	40	47.6%	-4.86	+0.64
CAF	101	49	48.5%	-3.13	-4.86
CONCACAF	70	35	50.0%	-1.71	-4.77
CONMEBOL	125	57	45.6%	-10.52	+2.42
OFC	3	0	0.0%	-3	+2.25
UEFA	225	93	41.3%	-40.4	+24.76

Backing under 2.5 goals has historically been the call when betting on World Cup goal totals.

Of all confederations, the best performing for under 2.5 goals were matches involving European nations against rival confederations. This correlates with their outperforming the draw in the 1X2 market.

Had you bet a single unit on Under 2.5 goals in each European match against confederation rivals at the World Cup since 1998, you would have seen a profit of just under 25 units across 225 matches, a return of just over +11%.

Conclusions: Betting on Confederations at the World Cup

Is there much we can take from this? Not too much. While stereotypes in world football abound, betting into those stereotypes would be folly.

However we can still see that as a whole, South American nations have been the best nation to back in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets while betting against African nations in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets would have seen a profit.

Further, we can see that matches between European nations and non-European opponents have had a tendency to be more defensive than expected, with a profit returned in both the draw and Under 2.5 goals.