Inter Milan: Champions League Contenders or Betting Opportunity?

Inter Milan are flying high, undefeated and yet to concede in the Champions League, earning the title of the best football team globally in Opta’s Power Rankings. With five clean sheets in six matches and a history-making European defensive record, Simone Inzaghi’s squad is turning heads. But does their dominance present smart betting opportunities, or are there risks lurking beneath the surface?

The Strength of Inter’s Defense

Inter’s current form owes much to their remarkable defensive organization. Inzaghi’s team have neutralized European giants like Arsenal and Manchester City while maintaining five Champions League clean sheets—something unseen since 2010. Their resilience at the back has been a bedrock for success, with 21 Serie A clean sheets in the 2023/24 campaign.

However, while the defense appears impenetrable in Europe, their domestic xG conceded (15.25) ranks only seventh in Italy. This suggests cracks in Serie A that shrewd bettors should note.

Betting on Inter in Serie A

Inter’s odds to retain their Serie A title have shifted throughout the season, now offering value between 2.00 and 2.10 with most bookmakers. With only one top-seven opponent (Lazio) before January 2025, this could be a strong betting angle. However, bettors should remain cautious.

Lautaro Martinez’s form has dipped compared to last season, with supporting forwards Mehdi Taremi and Marko Arnautović contributing minimally. Injuries also pose a risk—Inter’s squad, the oldest in Serie A, has already seen 11 muscle injuries, sidelining key players like Francesco Acerbi and Benjamin Pavard.

Realistic Champions League Hopes

Inter are strong contenders to make the Champions League quarter-finals, with a 55% chance. Yet, our model gives them only a 10.8% probability of reaching the final and 3.9% of winning the trophy—below the implied odds from bookmakers.

For now, betting on Inter’s European success might be speculative. A better strategy could be to monitor their away performance against Bayer Leverkusen before making any bold predictions.

Final Thoughts

Inter Milan’s formidable defense makes them a consistent force, especially in high-stakes matches. However, the betting markets reflect mixed opportunities. Serie A offers value in outright bets, while European success requires careful timing and consideration. Savvy bettors should weigh these factors before placing their wagers.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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