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An Inter Milan vs Juventus prediction, tips and best bets preview is what everyone who loves Serie A is looking forward to this week.
The ‘Derby d’Italia’ is both the strongest rivalry in the peninsula and the biggest game of this season and our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, fresh off hitting a threefold last weekend with Lazio vs Napoli, has delivered his verdict.
In this article:
Italy, Serie A, Sunday, February 4th, 19:45 (UK)
Last Sunday, Inter Milan regained Serie A’s lead thanks to a valiant and sturdy performance in Florence. It was not all plain sailing for Simone Inzaghi’s men who, after taking the lead thanks to Lautaro Martinez’s 19th Serie A goal of the season, missed chances to go 2-0 and defended deep in the second half.
But psychologically, this one-goal margin win is huge as the Neroazzurri, who won their first trophy of the season in Saudi Arabia a week ago, are now again ahead of Juve despite having a game in hand. Another success for Inter on Sunday would virtually end the title race after Juventus, last Saturday, dropped, unexpectedly, two points against relegation-bound Empoli at home.
A disappointing result, nevertheless, but that won’t alter Massimiliano Allegri’s plan ahead of this big game. Juventus knew from the start of the campaign they could not match Inter Milan’s quality and squad depth, and their objective had always been to arrive at the game at San Siro within touching distance of the Milanese.
With 53 points in the table (their second-best tally after 22 games since 2020) and no defeats in the last 19 matches, the Bianconeri have, so far, accomplished their mission.
Now Juventus are called to overcome their limits, mainly represented by difficulty in playing in the opposition’s half, and produce a powerful display in the most important game of their season.
Lately, thanks to Dusan Vlahovic’s great form (six goals in the last four games for the Serbian striker) and the blossoming of 18-year-old Kenan Yıldız, Juve has started playing more expansively. But against Empoli, as they were reduced to 10 men due to Arkadiusz Milik sending off, after going 1-0 up, they slipped into the old habits and lacked the conviction and the quality to finish off the game.
Despite this being a meeting between Italy’s top two defences who’ve kept most clean sheets so far, you’d expect it to be more open than the reverse fixture (which ended 1-1 in Turin).
The xG metrics also suggest both sides have overperformed defensively: in particular, the Serie A leaders have the fourth xGA positive difference, thanks also to Verona and Fiorentina missing a penalty apiece, which would have cost Inter four points in their last three games.
Inter has a habit of starting games strongly, especially at San Siro, where they scored more than half of their goals in the first 45 minutes.
When these two sides met at the end of November 2023, it was Inter who, in the end, left the Juventus Stadium with regrets.
The Neroazzurri controlled the game for large spells, having 66% possession and completing more than 750 passes, but rarely threatened Juve’s goal, and it looked like a fear of exposing themselves to a counterattack blocked their initiative.
Juventus is the only team that has managed to take the lead against Inter in Serie A this season and has been extremely efficient in all their games against top sides in Italy.
The Bianconeri have conceded only three goals (against Bologna, Lazio and Inter) in the games against the league’s top nine teams, and they won four matches by 1-0 (against Milan, Fiorentina, Napoli and Roma).
Juve’s attackers are oozing with confidence, and Allegri will also count on Federico Chiesa and Adrien Rabiot, who missed the last couple of games due to injury.
Inter will play on the front foot, but Juve’s ability to resist under siege can’t be underestimated.
Eventually, a draw is a result that will suit both teams and keep the title race wide open.
Inter Milan vs Juventus Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:30, January 29th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Nicolò Barella and Hakan Çalhanoğlu are back from suspension and will start in midfield for Inter alongside Henrikh Mkhitaryan. Defender Francesco Acerbi, who played in the second half in Florence, will start in place of Stefan De Vrij, and Federico Dimarco, who was rested last Sunday, will play as left wing-back instead of Carlo Augusto.
Matteo Darmian and Denzel Dumfries are in contention for a start at right wing-back, but the Italian player looks favorite. Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram will play upfront.
Juventus will be without Milik (suspended) and Weston McKennie is a doubt due to an ankle problem. Yildiz, who was initially left out of the team against Empoli, should start in attack alongside Vlahovic, but Federico Chiesa is also available after missing the last two games.
Adrien Rabiot is also fit to start, and Danilo, who did not play against Empoli to avoid being booked and missing Sunday’s match, will regain his place in Juve’s back three alongside Gatti and Bremer.
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A table by using the plethora of underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Inter | 38 | 28.3 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 89.2 | 24.4 | 64.9 | 91.3 |
2 | Juventus | 38 | 26.1 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 62.7 | 23.4 | 39.3 | 86.4 |
3 | AC Milan | 38 | 21.9 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 68.5 | 43.7 | 24.8 | 72.8 |
4 | Napoli | 38 | 18.0 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 60.7 | 45.9 | 14.8 | 62.2 |
5 | Atalanta | 38 | 18.3 | 7.4 | 12.3 | 62.1 | 41.6 | 20.5 | 62.2 |
6 | Lazio | 38 | 17.5 | 7.8 | 12.7 | 47.0 | 39.1 | 7.9 | 60.3 |
7 | Bologna | 38 | 15.6 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 44.8 | 35.0 | 9.8 | 59.9 |
8 | AS Roma | 38 | 16.6 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 57.3 | 42.5 | 14.8 | 59.3 |
9 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15.9 | 8.5 | 13.6 | 50.9 | 47.0 | 3.9 | 56.1 |
10 | Torino | 38 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 37.1 | 36.9 | 0.2 | 52.6 |
11 | Genoa | 38 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 14.8 | 37.4 | 43.7 | -6.3 | 45.6 |
12 | Monza | 38 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 15.8 | 40.2 | 54.4 | -14.3 | 44.3 |
13 | Frosinone | 38 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 18.9 | 48.8 | 67.4 | -18.6 | 41.4 |
14 | Sassuolo | 38 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 18.8 | 49.4 | 63.9 | -14.5 | 41.0 |
15 | Lecce | 38 | 8.8 | 13.1 | 16.1 | 39.2 | 56.2 | -17.0 | 39.4 |
16 | Udinese | 38 | 7.5 | 16.2 | 14.3 | 43.2 | 59.4 | -16.2 | 38.6 |
17 | Cagliari | 38 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 18.7 | 40.2 | 62.5 | -22.3 | 37.6 |
18 | Verona | 38 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 20.0 | 35.3 | 52.9 | -17.5 | 35.1 |
19 | Empoli | 38 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 21.7 | 30.0 | 61.6 | -31.7 | 32.5 |
20 | Salernitana | 38 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 23.5 | 32.0 | 74.5 | -42.5 | 24.3 |
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