Jimmy’s Long Shot Punt: A 67.00 Long Shot for Turkey vs Armenia

There is money to be made during the international break and excuses to take on some of the bookies’ bigger prices, which is why the Long Shot Punt returns this weekend.

Last weekend in the Premier League was bleak. The punt was a Lucas Digne goal and card. The angle was he had three cautions to his name in four appearances this season and was facing his old rivals. His manager has also been encouraging his fullbacks to be more offensive.

Digne committed two fouls; he didn’t get carded or manage a single shot.

International duty, more specifically the Euro 2024 Qualifiers and Turkey vs Armenia might change our fortunes.

• Selection: Grant-Leon Ranos To Score Two Goals

• Best Odds: 67.00 (Sporting Index), 51.00 (Vbet), 41.00 (Sky Bet & bet365)
• Stakes: 1/10

Odds as at 19:30 September 7th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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Turkey vs Armenia: Delight in Turkey? 

Turkey, European Qualifiers, Friday, September 8th, 19:45 (UK)

Turkey welcomes Armenia on Friday evening.

The hosts have taken nine points from their opening four games in Group D of their European Qualifying campaign.

Armenia have taken three points less, having played a game less. Victory would see them leapfrog Turkey on goal difference.

Turkey edged the reverse 2-1, though it was a fortuitous three points as the Crescent-Stars scored once from range and the other from a quick freekick. The two shots had a combined xG of 0.18.

Since that victory, Turkey’s only clean sheet has come against Wales. That was more a consequence of a toothless Welsh attack than stoic defending, though.

Stefan Kuntz’s side conceded twice to Latvia. The nation is ranked 134th (according to FIFA) and equalised with a man less in the 90+4th minute, only to concede seconds later and lose.

Across their four games, Turkey have created an xG pG of 1.475 and shipped an xGA of 1.30, underpinning the fact they might have been a little fortunate to win three games.

Armenia have not lost a game since these sides last met, winning each of their games in Group D and drawing with Cyprus 2-2. Over those 270 minutes of action, Havakakan have scored eight goals and have already proved they pose Turkey a threat.

Turkey vs Armenia Longshot: Vamos Ranos

Armenia have had no issues in creating chances, racking up 43 shots in their opening three games, an xG of 3.72 and carving out three big opportunities.

One of the visitors’ greatest threats is young frontman Grant-Leon Ranos.

Ranos has an impressive international tally of four goals in two games, having hit back-to-back braces, the first in a friendly against Cyprus and then another in his side’s next match, a 4-2 win at Wales.

In a game where Turkey look vulnerable defensively, there’s an appeal in delving into Armenia’s multi-goalscorers, and there does not seem any need to look further than a player who has hit the double in two of his three starts for his country.

Those two goals in the Euro 2024 Qualifiers mean the striker tops his country’s charts for goals scored and goals per 90 (1.09). It is also worth noting he ranks second for xG (0.6) and is averaging 0.32 xG per 90. Based purely on the latter figure, he should be a shade of 2/1 to find the net in Eskişehir on Friday.

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