Jimmy’s Longshot Punt: An 86.00 Long Shot for Southampton vs QPR

Jimmy’s Longshot Punt is back.

A column that started at the turn of the year last season and secured one 60/1 winner, a Jordan Pickford card and Everton to beat Arsenal combo in one of Shaun Dyche’s first games in charge at Goodison.

Winners are going to be few and far between, but at big odds, we only need one or two a season.

Kicking this campaign off, I have dipped into the Championship, where Southampton welcome QPR. This article should be read with rose-tinted spectacles on.

• Selection: QPR Win, Sinclair Armstrong Goal, Sinclair Armstrong Card
• Best Odds: 86.00 (bet365)
• Stakes: 1/10

Odds as at 19:30 August 23 2023. Odds may now differ.

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Southampton v QPR: Silky in possession but vulnerable at the back

England, Championship, Saturday, August 26th, 15:00 (UK)

Southampton welcome Queens Park Rangers to St Mary’s this Saturday, a clash that pits one of the ante-post favourites to win the Championship against one of the favourites for relegation.

Russell Martin’s side were 8.00 to top the second tier before a ball was kicked, and after an unbeaten return to the division, they have moved into 6.00.

The Saints have taken seven points from their opening three games, kicking off their campaign with a hard-fought victory at Hillsborough, where their style became immediately apparent.

Saturday’s hosts smashed the division record for passes completed in that opening 45 minutes in South Yorkshire, hitting 477. That was more than they completed in the entirety of any game in the top flight last season.

The side expected to play this Saturday has changed quite a bit, though. James Ward-Prowse and Roméo Lavia have been sold, Willy Smallbone has picked up an injury, and Flynn Downes has joined on loan from West Ham.

For all their silky possession, the Saints look vulnerable on the counterattack. Martin’s side are yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding six goals in total.

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Southampton v QPR Longshot: Armstrong to contain and counter

Gareth Anisworth’s tenure at QPR has been poor.

He has overseen 16 league games and picked up 14 points from a possible 48. His post-match interviews are laced with negativity and a resounding lack of belief in his squad.

So, it may shock you that I actually really fancy them to get a result on the South Coast.

Hear me out.

There seems to be a pattern emerging from the games QPR pick up points in; they are playing away from home, have low possession, and are usually underdogs.

First off, three of Ainsworth’s four wins have come on the road and have 78.57% of the points won.

At Cardiff, The R’s had 36% possession and went off to win the game at 4.50. Last season, they only saw 22% of the ball at Stoke and 20% in their win at Turf Moor in two games towards the end of the season.

This means Ainsworth relishes the siege mentality and sets his side up in a contain and counter style suited to playing away from home against possession-originated sides.

Southampton are certainly the latter. They have had no less than 62% possession this season and saw 80% of the ball in a similar game against Sheffield Wednesday.

I have already talked about their defensive fragility, something QPR will highlight if Martin opts to play Adam and Stuart Armstrong in a three-man midfield.

At 9.00, a QPR win appeals, but it needs beefing up and combining it with a Sinclair Armstrong goal, and the card does just that.

The young striker found the net in his side’s win at Cardiff and set up the other goal.

Sinclair has also notched up two cards this campaign, taking his tally to six for the club – staggering, considering he has only started five games and completed 6.1 90 minutes.

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