football | Friday, May 20, 2022 9:24 AM (Revised at: Thursday, May 26, 2022 1:54 PM)

2022 Champions League Betting Value Report Cards: +71.89 Units Profit

Daniel Jenkins

Back in February, I published my 2021/22Champions League Betting Value Report Cards. I graded each side from A+ to F based on how much betting value I thought punters could extract from each team. I then made a best bet for each side. Everything has been decided with the bets so it’s time to see the returns.

Overall: +71.89 Units Profit

It was a profitable set of report cards. Stakes weren’t given back in February but the example above gives 5/10 stakes to the As and F grades, 3/10 stakes to the B and E grades and 1/10 stakes to the Cs and Ds.

The Villarreal bet does much of the heavy lifting there at +60 units but that is understandable. Even without that, the value report cards were well in profit

Another option is to go full stakes on every bet. Applying 10/10 stakes to each of the 16 bets gives an overall profit of +179.7 Units. Even without the massive profit of the Villarreal bet, there is still +59.7 units of profit. It was a successful campaign and I’ll be back with more next season.

Overall Grade: A-. Villarreal did most of the hard work but still, 179 units of profit from a 160 unit investment is a pretty good return.

Bet	Odds	Result	Graded Stakes Profit/Loss	Even Stakes Profit/Loss
Bayern to win Champions League	4.90	loss	-5.00	-10.00
Chelsea furthest English team	3.75	loss	-5.00	-10.00
Villarreal to reach semi finals	13.00	Win	60.00	120.00
Ajax to reach semi finals	3.00	Loss	-3.00	-10.00
Liverpool to reach semi finals	2.00	Win	3.00	10.00
Man City to win 1st leg vs Sporting	1.33	Win	0.99	3.30
Real Madrid to reach qauarter finals	2.20	Win	1.20	12.00
Inter Milan Under 0.5 1st H goals – 1st Leg vs Liverpool	3.45	Win	2.45	24.50
Juventus Under 2.5 goals – 1st Leg vs Villarreal	1.75	Win	0.75	7.50
PSG win 1st leg vs Real Madrid	2.06	Win	1.06	10.60
Atletico win 1st leg vs Man Utd	2.50	Loss	-1.00	-10.00
Man Utd to reach quarter finals	1.75	Loss	-1.00	-10.00
Benfica +0.5 goals – 1st Leg vs Ajax	2.23	Win	3.69	12.30
Sporting over 3.5 match goals – 1st Leg vs Man City	2.50	Win	4.50	15.00
Lille +1.5 goals (AH) – 1st Leg vs Chelsea	1.89	Loss	-3.00	-10.00
Salzburg +0.5 goals (AH) – 1st Leg vs Bayern Munich	3.45	Win	12.25	24.50
TOTAL		10 wins	71.89	179.70

Bayern Munich: A+

Bet: To win the competition

Result: Loss. It didn’t quite happen after that quarter-final exit. Chance creation hurt them but they had a good performance against Villarreal. On another day, they would have made the semis at least.

Profit/Loss: -5 Units

Grade the grade: C

Chelsea: A

Bet: English team to progress the furthest

Result: Loss. How they failed to beat Real Madrid given the two performances is baffling. I backed on their defence holding which it did. Unfortunately, they didn’t have the goals to carry to another final appearance.

Profit/Loss: -5 Units

Grade the grade: B-

Villarreal: A-

Bet: Reach the semi-finals

Result: A massive profit. I backed on Unai Emery to work his European magic and it paid off big time. I fancied Villarreal to get past Juventus in the round of 16 and the 13.00 odds to win the quarter-final matchup was a no-brainer. I’m glad I made this call.

Profit/Loss: +60 Units

Grade the grade: A+

Ajax: B+

Bet: Reach the semi-finals

Result: I liked those odds considering Ajax’s exploits in recent seasons. Unfortunately, they came into that round of 16 out of form and missed out. With hindsight, this was a poor call given the odds.

Profit/Loss: -3 Units

Grade the grade: E

Liverpool: B

Bet: Reach the semi-finals

Result: Win. The Reds breezed into the final four on their way to the final. My original draft had Liverpool as an A valued team. I thought squad rotation may burn them out considering the fight on three fronts which it didn’t. Still, we take the win and move on.

Profit/Loss: +3 Units

Grade the grade: B+

Manchester City: B-

Bet: City to beat Sporting

Result: Win. I didn’t fancy Manchester City to go all the way in the competition despite them being down as heavy favourites. They were conceding far too many goals to justify their place as favourites. I hedged this bet and just backed them to reach the quarters.

Profit/Loss: +0.99 Units

Grade the grade: C+

Real Madrid: C+

Bet: Reach the quarters

Result: Win. I fancied Madrid to get past this disorganised PSG side but not much further. They had value in that match but I didn’t realise quite how much. Still, looking back and considering the way each match went, I think this was the right call.

Profit/Loss: +1.2 Units

Grade the grade: C

Inter Milan: C

Bet: Under 0.5 Goals in 1st half against Liverpool

Result: Win. They had the lowest average number of first-half goals in the competition before the knockout stages. This was a sound bet and the best I could make considering I didn’t fancy them to progress too far.

Profit/Loss: +2.45 Units

Grade the grade: A-

Juventus: C-

Bet: Under 2.5 Goals in the 1st leg vs Villarreal

Result: Win. I didn’t fancy Juventus to get too far this season. I didn’t want to bet on them not to qualify vs Villarreal so a low-scoring first leg match carried the value.

Profit/Loss: +0.75 Units

Grade the grade: B-

PSG: D+

Bet: PSG to win the 1st leg vs Real Madrid

Result: Win. I liked PSG at home in that first leg vs Real Madrid. They left it late but that was the value pick.

Profit/Loss: +1.06 Units

Grade the grade: C

Atletico Madrid: D

Bet: Win the 1st leg vs Manchester United

Result: Loss. This one was unfortunate. Atletico dominated much of the match and United hit back late. I didn’t expect much from either of these teams this season.

Profit/Loss: -1 Unit

Grade the grade: D-

Manchester United: D-

Bet: United to qualify vs Atletico

Result: Loss. Diego Simeone had one more defensive masterclass up his sleeve. I thought United carried more value in the tie coming in as underdogs in what I thought was a more even contest. Things didn’t work out their way.

Profit/Loss: -1 Unit

Grade the grade: E

Benfica: E+

Bet: Benfica +0.5 (AH) in 1st leg vs Ajax

Result: Win. This one came off thanks to that 2-2 draw in Portugal. I didn’t expect them to progress from the tie but that eventually happened. Still, that was a solid bet.

Profit/Loss: +3.69 units

Grade the grade: C+

Sporting CP: E

Bet: Over 3.5 Goals in 1st leg vs Manchester City

Result: Win. Manchester City’s massive 1st leg victory secured the win in this bet. I couldn’t find much else in the way of value when backing Sporting against Manchester City.

Profit/Loss: +4.5 Units

Grade the grade: C

Lille: E-

Bet: Lille +1.5 (AH) in 1st leg vs Chelsea

Result: Loss. Lille couldn’t hold out in that first leg at Stamford Bridge as the scoreline finished 2-0 in London. Putting this bet on the return leg would have held out.

Profit/Loss: -3

Grade the grade: D-

Salzburg: F

Bet: Salzburg +0.5 (AH) in 1st leg vs Bayern

Result: Win. This was another very profitable bet. Most had written off Salzburg in the tie – rightly so – but they looked good value at home in that 1st leg. The bookies had the Asian line far higher than this so there was plenty of value.

Profit/Loss: +12.25 Units

Grade the grade: B-

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