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Horse Racing Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Predictions: Tips and Best Bets Preview
On Tuesday night, it’s Chelsea vs Middlesbrough in the first leg of the EFL Cup semi-final. Matthew O’Regan is here and providing his three best tips for the match in our best bets preview.
Chelsea have won the last nine meetings between the two, with Middlesbrough failing to score in any of them – Carrick will be hopeful of a chance of pace on that front, with new man Finn Azaz likely to feature.
Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Predictions
- Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Tip 1: Chelsea to Win by Two or More Goals
- Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Tip 2: Christopher Nkunku to Score Anytime
- Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Tip 3: Jonny Howson and Levi Colwill to be Carded
In this article:
Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Tip 1: Chelsea to set up comfortable return leg
England, EFL Cup, Tuesday, January 9th, 20:00 (UK)
Middlesbrough have undergone a successful EFL Cup campaign thus far and now 180 minutes away from an unlikely final. Standing in their way are a Chelsea side who have been below par in 2023 but should still have enough to progress.
Chelsea is the first club higher than League 1 that Michael Carrick’s side has faced in the run thus far, so they present a different test than Port Vale did in the quarter-final.
Despite sitting a measly 10th in the Premier League, there are slowly signs of improvement from Mauricio Pochettino’s side, who have won four of their last five games in all competitions.
Despite having the advantage of being at home, Boro will be up against it from minute one, with Pochettino likely to field a strong team in an attempt to silence his many critics during his tenure so far.
If Chelsea field a strong team and perform as they have in recent weeks, I’m predicting that they should have no issue brushing aside a Boro side that sat 12th in the Championship with only the 16th-best home record in the league.
- Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Tip 1: Chelsea to Win by 2 or More Goals
- Best Odds: 2.40
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Tip 2: Nkunku back with a bang
Due to arriving from RB Leipzig and sustaining an injury, Nkunku has yet to showcase his undoubted talent to the Chelsea faithful, making just three appearances. However, the brief cameos from the Frenchman have offered promise, with Nkunku scoring a consolation in the disappointing defeat to Wolves. With Pochettino desperate for wins, the Argentine may throw Nkunku in from the start against Boro.
In just 128 minutes thus far, Nkunku has recorded five shots, showing his eye for goal and eagerness to test the keeper, accumulating nearly 1xG. Last season at RB Leipzig, the 26-year-old scored 23 goals in 36 games, 12 less than his 35 the season before. With a record as impressive as this, don’t be surprised to see Nkunku on the scoresheet at the Riverside.
An added caveat to the bet is Middlesbrough’s leaky defence, with Carrick’s side conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game.
- Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Tip 2: Christopher Nkunku to Score Anytime
- Best Odds: 2.40
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Tip 3: Howson and Colwill walking a tightrope
Middlesbrough’s captain is tough-tackling midfielder Jonny Howson, with the 35-year-old’s passion and endeavour set to play a big part in this tie. In 25 games this season, Howson has been booked six times. Three of these bookings have come against Leeds, Leicester and West Brom – all sides pushing promotion. This shows Howson tends to overstep the mark against ‘better’ teams.
With Chelsea expected to enjoy the majority of possession, Howson is likely to be the main culprit attempting to win the ball back. Nkunku likes to occupy the space in between the striker and the midfield, and Howson is most likely the man tasked with nullyfying the attacking threat. Cole Palmer also tends to drift centrally, so the centre of midfield may be overloaded.
Levi Colwill is the second player I am selecting to be booked. Playing out of position at left back, the Cobham graduate has only received two yellow cards in his first full season at the club, but the bet is more about his direct opponent, Isaiah Jones.
Jones is a tricky customer on the right hand side, possessing an abundance of pace and a lack of fear. The 24-year-old is fouled 1.7 times per game, with a whooping 11 left backs booked against Boro so far this season.
Combining Colwill and Boro’s most carded player this season in a double looks a tasty longshot. We’ll get the price on the double as soon as odds are released.
- Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Tip 3: Howson and Colwill to be Carded
- Best Odds: 23.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 2/10
Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Team News Preview: Injury-riddled visitors
Todd Boehly’s rash spending has left Chelsea with a bloated squad, but it has perhaps been needed due to the absentees Chelsea currently have. Reece James, Ben Chilwell, Trevoh Chalobah, Romeo Lavia, Wesley Fofana, Robert Sanchez, Carney Chukwuemeka, Marc Cucurella and Lesley Ugochukwu are all likely to miss this fixture with injury. Nicolas Jackson will also be absent due to his participation in AFCON with Senegal.
However, it is not just Chelsea with selection problems, as Middlesbrough also have a lengthy list of absentees. Seny Dieng will be linking up with Nicolas Jackson for Senegal on international duty, while Australian duo Sam Silvera and Riley McGree will be representing Australia in the Asia Cup. Darragh Lenihan and Tom Smith are out for the season with long-term injuries, while Lewis O’Brien, Marcus Forss, Hayden Hackney, Patrick Mcnair, Matt Crooks and Emmanuel Latthe Lath join the unfortunate duo on the physio’s table.
Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Stats Preview: History favours the Blues
- With 39.4xG, Chelsea possess the 10th-highest xG figure in the Premier League at the halfway stage of the season.
- Cole Palmer’s eight goals in the league this season stands him as the team’s highest scorer in the competition. The former Man City man should feature here.
- Only Southampton and Plymouth Argyle have a higher Shots on Target per90 sum in the Championship than Boro’s 5.19 this term.
- Chelsea (52) have registered the second-fewest shots from set pieces this season, with only The Blades (50) pulling the trigger less.
As alluded to earlier, this has been a fixture Chelsea have dominated over the years. The last six meetings read as follows:
- 28/01/09 – Chelsea 2-0 Middlesbrough
- 27/02/13 – Middlesbrough 0-2 Chelsea
- 20/11/2016 – Middlesbrough 0-1 Chelsea
- 08/05/2017 – Chelsea 3-0 Middlesbrough
- 19/03/2022- Middlesbrough 0-2 Chelsea
How to watch Middlesbrough vs Chelsea
- Date and Time: Tuesday, January 9th, 20:00 (UK)
- How to Watch or Stream on TV (UK): Sky Sports Main Football
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