Napoli vs AC Milan Bet Builder Tips and Match Stats: All Action in Naples

There are two big games in Serie A this weekend: Inter Milan vs Roma, which Daniele covered in the Expert’s Acca, and Napoli vs AC Milan, which our football Expert Daniele Fisichella has chosen for his Bed Builder article.

Last season the Rossoneri were unbeaten in two encounters at the Maradona but have suffered defeats against Juventus and PSG in the last six days. The hosts are searching for their identity after a difficult start to the season. The game is not a Scudetto decider, but a defeat will officially open the crisis for any of these two sides.

• Over 2.5 Goals
• Giacomo Raspadori To Have over 1.5 Shots
• Over 8 Corners

Bet Builder odds: 4.20

Italy, Serie A, Sunday 29th October, 19:45 (UK)

Odds via bet365 as at 08:40 am, Thursday 26th October 2023. Odds may now differ.

---

Napoli vs AC Milan: Both in search of their identity

• AC Milan were unbeaten in the two games played at the Maradona last season: winning in Serie A (4-0) and drawing (1-1) in the Champions League.
• Matteo Politano is the Napoli player who has contributed to more goals this season: four goals and three assists.
• Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored his second ever brace in Serie A last weekend against Verona. The first one came in August 2022 against Monza.
• Napoli have only kept one clean sheet in five domestic home games in all competitions this season.
• AC Milan are the first Italian side that hasn’t scored a single goal in five consecutive Champions League games.

---

Napoli vs AC Milan Bet Builder Tips: Oshi-less hosts hang on ‘Giac’ of all trades

Over 2.5 Goals

The last two results have been positive (away wins at Verona and Berlin), but Napoli are still a shadow of the team that entertained us all last season. Twelve months ago, they were capable of beating the likes of Liverpool and Ajax and had six more points on the Serie A table at this stage.

On Tuesday, they had a mere shot on target against Union Berlin (a team that had lost nine consecutive games) and looked fairly passive when they had the ball. Tactically, Rudi Garcia hasn’t changed the way Napoli was set up under Luciano Spalletti, but the team has become more cautious, reactive and opportunistic.

Often in Serie A, they try to play very directly, and despite being first for shots taken, they’ve scored two goals less than in 2022/2023 after nine games (22 vs 20).

The good news for Napoli is that Khvicha Kvaratskhelia looks like he’s getting back to his best form (two goals and one assist in the last two games).

Giacomo Raspadori To Have 1.5 Shots

The champions will be without Victor Oshimen until at least mid-November, so Garcia has decided to give an opportunity to 23-year-old Raspadori rather than playing with Oshimen’s natural replacement, Giovanni Simeone.

Raspadori being on the pitch allows Napoli to have more control of the ball in the final third: he’s unselfish and can drift wide to open the space for the runs of Zielinsky or provide assists (like he did for Politano against Verona).

His clinical finish gave Napoli the three points in the Champions League, and he’s also in the top 5 in Serie A for shots taken (23, over 2.5 on average x game).

Raspadori has scored more goals for Napoli in Europe (5) than in Serie A (3), but he has only started 12 games since August 2022).

After the derby defeat, AC Milan has looked better, having conceded only one in six games, but the Rossoneri are also sometimes struggling to contain pacey strikers.

Three AC Milan players have been sent off in the first nine Serie A games (Tomori, Maignan and Thiaw), as Stefano Pioli’s men conceded 14 shots against Juventus and 13 against PSG.

Over 8 Corners

Does AC Milan have a problem against the top sides? This season, the Rossoneri have disappointed when it mattered, having beaten only Lazio and Roma, but they failed to score in all their three Champions League matches and against Juventus and got trashed 5-1 by their city rivals.

It has been a strange season so far for AC Milan as after the first couple of games, they looked stronger and more competitive than last year, but in the last few weeks, they’ve appeared to have lost that team spirit that characterized them in the past.

And then there’s the goalscoring issue: Rafael Leao was AC Milan’s best player in the 3-0 defeat in Paris but once again lacked conviction in front of goal.

Olivier Giroud hasn’t found the net since 1 September, Okafor is dealing with a muscular injury, Chukwueze is out until November, and Jovic so far has been simply impalpable (zero shots on target in four games). Perhaps AC Milan’s best chance to score is from a set piece?

Napoli are top for corners taken in Serie A: 60 (over six per game), almost twice as many as AC Milan (16th in Italy, with 35).

---

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.