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Football | Wednesday, June 19, 2024 11:39 AM

Netherlands vs France Prediction: Euro 2024 Team News and Lineups Preview

Netherlands vs France Prediction: Euro 2024 Team News and Lineups Preview
ANP / Alamy Stock Photo: Denzel Dumfries of Holland during the UEFA EURO 2024 group D match

Here we have it, our Netherlands vs France prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview for MD2’s big one in Group D. Both teams head into the match after a winning start. 

A win for either side would confirm top spot in the group ahead of this clash at the Red Bull Arena in Leipzig. French expert Steve Wyss previews the match as Les Bleus look to march on. We have identified the best bets and angles to attack. 

Netherlands vs France Prediction 1: Goals less likely to flow with draw potential

Euro 2024, Friday 21st June, 20:00 (UK)

Both teams started with a win, which takes some pressure off their shoulders. We now have a situation where a draw would probably guarantee qualification for both which makes me think this could be a lower scoring game than most expect. There is a clash of styles with a more proactive Dutch against a French side who likes to control proceedings where possible. I think that Ronald Koeman might opt to be more cautious with his Netherlands team, though. France beat them twice in qualifying and generally have a poor record vs Les Bleus. There’s no doubt a draw would be a good outcome for the Dutch, so they might not take as many risks as they normally do.

Under 2.5 goals looks like a decent option here. There’s a massive doubt over the participation of Kylian Mbappé, which in itself is enough to lower goal expectations by a significant amount. It would be a huge boost for the Netherlands if they could plan for life without Mbappé, giving them more chances to nullify France’s threat. For their part, France looked pretty solid in the opener. William Saliba should improve on a mediocre Euros debut, whilst N’golo Kante looks like an excellent midfield shield again. Both keepers Mike Maignan and Bart Verbruggen looked solid in the opening group games. This match could well finish a draw, and if either team is to win, then it could be a tight margin. I can’t see the Dutch playing as open or with as many risks in this fixture, so I’m happy to take the straight under 2.5 goals. 

  • Netherlands vs France Prediction 1: Under 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 2.0
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 6/10

Netherlands vs France Prediction 2: Tense first half could lead to stalemate

At the time of writing, this hasn’t been a tournament of many half-time draws, and there has been a theme of early goals which have changed the direction of fixtures. However, as the tournament progresses, certain games are likely to be more tense as teams feel each other out tactically. I have mentioned how I expect this to be a tighter fixture compared to what most expect, and that could add weight to a potential 0-0 HT score. The first half of Austria vs France was pretty cagey, and only a late own goal enabled France to lead at the interval. Didier Deschamps is the type of manager who likes to assess the opposition and maintain control of proceedings. 

If you offered the Netherlands a draw before this match, they would definitely take it. If you told Ronald Koeman they would be drawing at the interval, he would take it. The closer the Dutch keep this game and the longer they can stay in proceedings, the better chance they have of getting a result. This is tournament football in a group situation where neither side truly ‘needs’ to win. There won’t be an air of desperation compared to some situations where certain teams feel like they need to come out of the traps strongly. 

Backing the HT draw could be more profitable as the tournament progresses, and this is an ideal situation even if an early goal is scored when there’s enough firepower for the opponent to equalise before the break. Odds of 2.20 could be generous considering the approach of both nations. The Netherlands were one of the few teams to be drawing at the interval on matchday one, and they can double up on that statistic here. 

  • Netherlands vs France Prediction 2: Half Time Draw (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 2.20
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 5/10

Netherlands vs France Prediction 3: Dutch value to lead the way for flag kicks

The style that both teams play should in theory allow Netherlands to have a good chance of obtaining more corners. Ronald Koeman might switch to a three-at-the-back system, which would include wing-backs, but the current 4-3-3 system is just as effective out wide. Both wide defenders for the Dutch, Nathan Ake and Denzel Dumfries regularly gets forward and look to put in crosses from the byline. Xavi Simons and Cody Gakpo are known tricksters who like to beat their man repeatedly as well. With big guys at the back, such as van Dijk, it makes sense that the Netherlands play for corners due to the threat they offer.

France only obtained two corners against Austria and conceded six of them. The French are more of a controlled team and won’t just try to put random crosses into the box for the sake of it. Ousmane Dembele is constantly looking to cut inside, and Marcus Thuram is very similar on the other flank. France tends to have quite a narrow attacking system and a willingness to retain the ball. Theo Hernandez is the only player who plays in a conventional way for them as a full-back. It is a surprise to see the Netherlands as the underdog to obtain more corners. They can be backed on a +0.5 corner Asian handicap, so this bet would be a winner if both teams ended with the same number. 

  • Netherlands vs France Prediction 3: Netherlands +0.5 Asian Handicap Corners (TRACKED BET)
  • Best Odds: 1.90
  • Bookmaker: bet365
  • Stake: 5/10

Netherlands vs France Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, June 18th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Netherlands vs France Euro 2024 Team News and Possible Lineups: Mbappé a huge doubt with broken nose

All eyes are on France captain Kylian Mbappé who is a major doubt with a broken nose sustained in the match against Austria. At the time of writing it looks likely he will miss this match and then wear a protective mask for the rest of the tournament. Olivier Giroud is the natural replacement, upfront although Randal Kolo Muani could be an option. Netherlands manager Ronald Koeman has a decision to make upfront whether to start Wout Weghorst or keep him as an impact sub. Jeremie Frimpong could be a candidate to replace Xavi Simons on the right wing but all things considered this might be the same XI which beat Poland 2-1.

Netherlands possible starting lineup:
Verbruggen, Ake, van Dijk, de Vrij, Dumfries, Veerman, Reijnders, Schouten, Gakpo, Depay, Simons

France possible starting lineup:
Maignan, Hernandez, Saliba, Upamecano, Kounde, Rabiot, Kante, Griezmann, Thuram, Giroud, Dembele

Euro 2024 Match Stats: France looking to continue dominance against the Dutch

  • France have won 7 of the last 8 head to head meetings including a double vs the Dutch in qualifying
  • Netherlands registered a massive 21 shots vs Poland but only four were on target
  • France surprisingly lost the possession battle against Austria, only having 48% of the ball
  • France drew 18 fouls in their opening clash, one of the highest rates of any team in the tournament

Netherlands Group D Euro 2024 Fixtures: Possible showdown against Austria awaits

  • Vs Austria (N)

France Group D Euro 2024 Fixtures: Les Bleus finish with easiest group game on paper

  • Vs Poland (H)

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