Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction: Tips and Best Bets Preview

After two out of three winners on his last Newcastle Jets preview, our Aussie expert, Matthew O’Regan, is back with his Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix predictions, tips and best bets preview.

With a 3-1 win over Brisbane Roar moving the Jets to within two points of the A-League playoff picture, Robert Stanton’s side face a tough test against top of the league on Saturday.

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction and Tips Preview

1. Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Tip 1: Newcastle Jets -1 Asian Corner Handicap
2. Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Tip 2: Kostas Barbarouses to Score Anytime
3. Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Tip 3: Apostolos Stamateopoulous to Score Anytime

In this article:

• Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Team News
• Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Stats Preview
• How to watch Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
• Safer Gambling

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Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Tip 1: Corners providing value

Australia, A-League, Saturday 27th, 07:00 (UK)

Nine points separate the sides in the A-League table, with Wellington Phoenix sitting atop the table. However, bet 365 have priced Newcastle Jets as favourites. Looking at the underlying metrics for Wellington Phoenix does, however, explain the price.

Despite being top with 23 goals scored, Giancarlo Italiano’s side ranks bottom for xG per game (0.94), also conceding the second-highest xGA per game (1.93). Credit must go to Phoenix for defying expectations, but you must wonder how long this will last.

The first selection comes from the Asian corner market. While Newcastle Jets rank quite poorly for home corners (5.80) and have only won the corner count on one occasion in their five home games, it is Phoenix’s conceded statistics that make this bet so appealing.

Phoenix has conceded a league-high 9.54 corners per game, with an average of 11.57 in away games. Their corner count against away from home reads 9, 16, 12, 10, 8, 13, 18,4. Italiano’s side have also averaged just 3.54 corners per game, with their away average standing at 2.43. They have lost the corner count in all seven away games by 14, 12, 4, 2, 12, 17, and 1, respectively, meaning the -1 Asian corner handicap has paid out in 85% of their away games, refunding in the other one.

• Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets Tip 1: Newcastle Jets -1 Asian Handicap Corners (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.82
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Tip 2: Barbaric Barbarouses

New Zealand veteran Kosta Barbarouses is perhaps a big reason for Wellington out-performing their xG and sitting top of the league. The 33-year-old struggled to find his goalscoring boots last year, scoring just two goals in 24 A-League appearances. However, this year, Barbarouses has excelled by scoring eight goals in just thirteen matches.

Before his blank against Melbourne Victory, Barbarouses had scored in five consecutive games, including braces against Perth Glory, Adelaide United and Macarthur.

The 33-year-old does not shoot as often as most of his counterparts, averaging just 1.94 shots per game. What does stand out is his accuracy, with 1.32 shots on target per 90. With a total xG of 4.65 this season, Barbarouses is massively out-performing his xG, proving himself to be a clinical finisher.

For the third top scorer and a player in such fine goalscoring form, odds of 3.50 for him to make it nine for the season are very tempting.

• Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Tip 2: Kosta Barbarouses to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Tip 3: Greek God to rise again

It wouldn’t be a Newcastle Jets match preview without me tipping Apostolos Stamatelopoulos to score. The Greek-born Aussie is the second top scorer in the league with ten goals.

Stamatelopoulos has ten goals in 12 starts, including a brace in the reverse fixture in which the Jets ran out 0-3 winners. Fresh off a brace against Brisbane Roar, the 24-year-old will be brimming with confidence heading into this affair.

With 3.21 shots and 1.42 shots on target per 90, Stamatelopoulous has shown he is not afraid to shoot, and this is undoubtedly reaping its rewards. He is averaging 0.68 xG per game, indicating that he is constantly in the right place at the right time – an important trait for a striker.

In a match that should be end-to-end, Stamatelopoulos should have plenty of opportunities to close in on Bruno Fornaroli in his quest to end the season with the Golden Boot.

• Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Tip 3: Kosta Stamatelopoulos to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.25
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:00 Tuesday 23 January Odds may now differ.

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Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Team News Preview: Nearly full strength for either side

After limping off early in the recent 3-1 victory over Brisbane Roar, Carl Jenkinson is a significant doubt for Newcastle Jets in this game. Aside from this, Robert Stanton has a full-strength side for this one.

Thanks to a first-half red card against Melbourne Victory, marauding wing-back Tim Payne misses this game, a big loss for the Phoenix. Clinical forward Oskar Zawade is still out with an injury that has kept him out since December.

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Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Stats Preview: There’s a history of goalmouth action

• Despite sitting top of the table, Wellington Phoenix have the lowest xG and the second highest xGA in the league.
• Wellington Phoenix rank fourth lowest for goals scored.
• Newcastle Jets have the third worst defence in the league.
• 10 of the last 11 head to head meetings have seen over 2.5 goals.

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How To Watch

• Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix, A League.
• Date and Time: Saturday 27th January, 07:00 (UK)
• How to Watch or Stream on TV (UK): TNT Sports

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SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.