Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund Expert Football Betting Tips: Value Bets, OPTA Stats and Team News

Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund expert football betting tips? We’ve got you, overseen by our expert, Matthew O’Regan.

Billed by many as the ‘group of death’ in the Champions League, Group F has already entertained many. Newcastle and PSG are the current top two, with AC Milan in third and Borussia Dortmund in last place.

However, with three points separating Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund ahead of Thursday night’s clash, we could see a lot of change in the group standings.

Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund Expert Football Betting Tips

• Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Over 16.5 Throw Ins Each Team
• Alternative Expert Tip: Over 2.75 Goals

Odds via bet365 as at 12:30 October 23rd October 2023. Odds may now differ.

---

Bettingexpert’s Value Bet Tip: Over 16.5 Throw Ins Each Team

UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 25th October: 20:00 (UK)

​​Newcastle’s last Champions League game was a thriller for the neutral and a goldmine for punters. Their 4-1 victory over PSG had it all. Five goals, seven cards, 56 throw-ins, and 33 tackles showed how exciting the game was, and it is the throw-in market I will look to exploit this time around.

In this game, Newcastle hit 17 throw-ins, and PSG hit a whopping 39, as they were chasing the game ever since Miggy Almiron’s 17th-minute opener. The raucous atmosphere of St. James Park, as well as the frantic nature of the passionate tackles, led to an abundance of throws in a hectic game.

Newcastle were very worthy winners against PSG after riding their luck to draw 0-0 at the San Siro. In this game, AC Milan hit 29 throws, while Newcastle only hit 11. However, the game state on Wednesday will be different, as Eddie Howe will look to go for the win as opposed to playing for the draw in Italy.

Newcastle have hit 17+ throw-ins in 3/6 home games this season. The exceptions were the 15 in the 5-1 win over Aston Villa, the 13 against Liverpool, where they were leading for the majority of the game, and the 16 they hit in the EFL Cup victory over a Manchester City side who don’t concede many throw-ins.

Dating back to last season, Newcastle’s throw-in record at home was impressive, hitting at least 17 throw-ins in 20/23 home games, averaging 22.78 per game. The Magpies conceded 17+ throw-ins in 16/23, for an average of 18.73 per game.

Borussia Dortmund, like Newcastle, also tend to play their games frantically. They’ve hit 20, 28, 19, 11, 23, 18, 15, 17, 18, and 17 throws at an average of 18.6 per game, hitting at least 17 in 8/10 games. In this timeframe, they have conceded 24, 25, 22, 17, 19, 24, 27, 13, 20, and 17 at an average of 20.8 per game, conceding at least 17 in 9/10.

With a raucous, passionate, and sold-out crowd expected, I expect plenty of throw-ins.

• Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Both Teams Over 16.5 Throw Ins (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

---

Bettingexpert’s Alternative Expert Bet Tip: Goals , Goals and More goals

Newcastle currently sit sixth in the Premier League after a strong start to the season. In their impressive start, Eddie Howe’s side have scored a league-high 24 goals, with 13 of these coming in five home games.

The season started with a barnstorming 5-1 victory over high-flying Aston Villa before a 2-1 loss at home to Liverpool. The Magpies bounced back in their next home game, edging out Brentford 1-0, before beating Manchester City 1-0 in the EFL Cup, Burnley 2-0, PSG 4-1 in the UCL, and Crystal Palace 4-0. 6/9 Newcastle Premier League games so far this season have seen over 2.5 goals, with their games averaging 3.66 goals.

Borussia Dortmund have had a solid start to the campaign as they look to bounce back from their late-season capitulation that saw them throw away the Bundesliga title in the last game of the season. Edin Terzic’s side has 20 points from eight games and sits fourth, two points off table-topping Bayer Leverkusen.

Last season, die Schwarzgelben games averaged 3.73 goals. This season, that average is down but still at an impressive 3.125 goals. Half of their games have seen over 2.5 goals.

I expect goals at both ends in what should be a closely fought contest.

• Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Over 2.75 Goals
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

---

Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund Team News: Isak to Return Despite Decent Wilson Weekend Showing

In terms of injuries, Sven Botman is still out with a knee injury that has seen him miss the last five games. Harvey Barnes and Joe Willock are both also fit. After being rested in the 4-0 victory over Crystal Palace, star-striker Alexander Isak is expected to earn his spot back after seven goals in nine starts this season.

Dortmund are still without youngsters Julien Duravnille and Youssoufa Moukoko through injury, as well as Thomas Meunier and Mateu Morey, who are without competitive minutes yet this season.

---

Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund Powered by OPTA Stats: Brandt the Key to any Dortmund Success

• Borussia Dortmund have had 14 more shots than Newcastle (32-18) in the UEFA Champions League this season; however, the German side are yet to score while the Magpies have the second-highest shot conversion rate through the first two matchdays (22.2%).
• Newcastle United – who won 4-1 v PSG on MD2 – have had the fewest touches in the opposition box in the UEFA Champions League in the first two matchdays (23), as well as having the lowest xG (1.2) among all sides in this period.
• As of the end of matchday two, Sandro Tonali has played more minutes than any other midfielder in the UEFA Champions League since the start of last season (1,190). Indeed, the only outfield player to play more in this period is Manchester City defender Rúben Dias (1,221).
• No player created more chances than Julian Brandt through the first two match days in the UEFA Champions League this season (8), with five of those coming in Borussia Dortmund’s draw against Milan last time out in the competition.
• This is the first competitive meeting between Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund – the Magpies have never lost against German opponents in all European competition (W4 D1), most recently drawing 0-0 with Eintracht Frankfurt in the 2006-07 UEFA Cup.

---

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.