PSG vs Dortmund Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Welcome to our PSG vs Dortmund prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. Dortmund surprised everyone by winning the first leg 1-0 but they still remain the underdog to progress to the Champions League final at Wembley on June 1st. Football betting expert Steve Wyss previews the second leg in Paris looking for the best bets, analysis and value. 

Looking for more UCL Content on the semi-final clashes? How about Scott Thornton’s Champions League Props Tips.

In this article:

• PSG vs Dortmund Tip 1: PSG -1.25 Asian Handicap
• PSG vs Dortmund Tip 2: Kylian Mbappe to Score Anytime
• PSG vs Dortmund Tip 3: Achraf Hakimi Over 0.5 SOT

PSG vs Dortmund Prediction 1: PSG to turn around the deficit and make the final

UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 7th May, 20:00 (UK)

Everything that PSG have worked towards in the last few years is on the line here in Paris. This is their last chance to win the Champions League with someone like Kylian Mbappe in their ranks. It might be some time before the French side contains such a world-class player, and there is no guarantee they will get so deep into the tournament again like this. PSG might consider themselves unlucky to lose the first leg. They had most of the play, and whilst Dortmund did create opportunities, it was PSG that somehow failed to score.

With home advantage, Luis Enrique’s men should be able to turn around this deficit. At the very minimum, they need to win inside 90 minutes to take the tie to extra time, and this is the least I expect from them. The bookmakers have been clever in setting the Asian and goal lines for this match. To get the full value, we have to take PSG on a -1.25 line, but if they dominate as I expect, then this won’t be a problem. Earlier in the season, they beat 2-0 Dortmund at home in the group stages and controlled the contest with ease. PSG are realistically much better than their German counterparts, and this should ultimately show come the final whistle. 

• PSG vs Dortmund Prediction 1: PSG -1.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.03
• Bookmaker: bet365 
• Stake: 7/10

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PSG vs Dortmund Prediction 2: Main man Mbappé to lead PSG to Wembley

Kylian Mbappé has been inconsistent since mid-March, but that is perhaps due to the fact that he’s been rested in some league games, and Luis Enrique making sure he’s ready for the big games. The French captain somehow didn’t score in the first leg but was a whisker away when he curled a shot onto the inside of the post. 

Who knows what the future might hold, but this is his last season at PSG in his current spell with the club. As a boyhood PSG fan winning this competition will be a dream for him, and on this crucial occasion I am sure he will step up and be counted. Mbappé will certainly get chances, and we know he’s on penalty duty, which increases his scoring chances. 

We aren’t getting massive odds on the French Captain to score anytime here at 1.72, but this still looks the stand out bet if you want to back a goalscorer. None of the other PSG players are reliable enough. Ousmane Dembele squanders too many chances and Bardley Barcola feels too raw. PSG are going to have to lean on their superstar here and Mbappé can deliver. 

• PSG vs Dortmund Prediction 2: Kylian Mbappe to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

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PSG vs Dortmund Prediction 3: Hakimi to strike against Dortmund again

Back in the autumn it was Achraf Hakimi who netted one of the goals when PSG beat Dortmund 2-0 here at the Parc des Princes. The World-class Moroccan full-back has been used in different ways by Luis Enrique this season and been involved far more offensively than under previous regimes. Hakimi sometimes operates as an inverted wing-back and moves into more central locations. This has, in turn, led to some extra shooting opportunities. Hakimi averages 1.80 shots per game in the Ligue 1, and in the Champions League, he has maintained a similar rate at 1.60. 

At odds of 1.83 I think it is worth backing Hakimi to have over 0.5 shots on target. His shooting accuracy generally hovers around the 40% mark, and his overall SOT per 90 rate is around 0.60. But considering the fact that he has looked lively against Dortmund this season, already scored against them and could be taking some free kicks then this looks well within his range. This is the type of match where PSG might need something from outside the penalty area, and Hakimi is the type of player who can deliver a special blow.

• PSG vs Dortmund Prediction 3: Achraf Hakimi Over 0.5 SOT (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

PSG vs Dortmund Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, May 6th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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PSG vs Dortmund Team News and Possible Lineups: Hernandez injury major blow for club and country

PSG will be forced into a defensive change with Lucas Hernandez suffering an ACL injury in the first leg. He will unfortunately miss the Euro 2024 championship with France as well. Lucas Beraldo should take his spot. The big doubt for Dortmund compared to the first leg is Karim Adeyemi who is nursing a thigh injury. Remy Bensebaini and Sebastien Haller are still on the sidelines. 

PSG possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma, Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Mendes, Vitinha, Zaire-Emery, Fabian Ruiz, Dembele, Barcola, Mbappe

Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel, Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen, Sabitzer, Can, Sancho, Brandt, Malen, Fullkrug

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Match OPTA Stats: Dortmund to struggle in Paris again?

• This will be the eighth meeting between Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund in European competition, with both sides winning two games apiece to date (three draws). All four of the victories recorded in this fixture have been by the team playing at home. 
• Borussia Dortmund have faced Paris Saint-Germain away from home in Europe on three occasions, but have never won (D1 L2) or scored on any of those trips. They were beaten 2-0 away to the French side in this season’s group stage in September, and only managed one shot on target in that game. 
• Paris Saint-Germain are aiming to reach a European Cup/UEFA Champions League final for just the second time (previously in 2019-20), while Borussia Dortmund could do so for the third time in their history, after 1996-97 and 2012-13; the latter being the last time the final of this competition was played at Wembley.
• Following their 6-4 aggregate win over Barcelona in the previous round, Paris Saint-Germain could become the first side to lose the first leg in both the quarter-finals and semi-finals in a UEFA Champions League campaign and still progress to reach the final. 
• Paris Saint-Germain have only failed to score in two of their last 38 home games in the UEFA Champions League (93 goals scored in this run), with FC Bayern München being the team to keep a clean sheet on both of those occasions (1-0 in February 2023 and April 2021).
• Borussia Dortmund are the side with the biggest difference between goals conceded and expected goals against in the UEFA Champions League this season (+10.7 – nine conceded from 19.7 xG against). The only two instances of a team hitting the woodwork twice and failing to score in a game in the competition this term were both against Edin Terzic’s side (PSG in the first leg and Newcastle in October 2023). 
• Paris Saint-Germain have trailed on the scoreboard (339 minutes) for longer than they’ve been ahead (291 minutes) in the UEFA Champions League this season. They’ve also conceded the opening goal in each of their last three games in the competition, their longest such run since April 2015 (4). 

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PSG Fixtures: French Cup final could secure the second leg of a treble

• Vs Toulouse (H)
• Vs Nice (A)
• Vs Metz (A)
• Vs Lyon (N) French Cup final

Dortmund Fixtures: Easy domestic finish for Dortmund

• Vs Mainz (A)
• Vs Darmstadt (H)

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