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Our expert, Tom Winch, has picked out three selections for this La Liga clash in our Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.
The hosts have been superb. That’s even without several key players. Real Madrid face Sevilla on Sunday night in a game the league leaders are expected to win. Sevilla have been underwhelming throughout the campaign. I struggle to see how they stop Ancelotti’s men at the Bernabeu.
Our Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction is for Real Madrid to win the match 2-0.
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Spain, La Liga, Sunday, February 25th, 20:00 (UK)
Real Madrid have endured a phenomenal season in La Liga this season. Carlo Ancelotti’s men have earned 62 points from 25 league games. Los Blancos have scored the most goals (53) and conceded the fewest (16).
Sevilla (5-9-11 WDL) is in for a tough encounter on Sunday night. Their La Liga record is uninspiring, and I can’t see them having much joy. Quique Sanchez Flores’ men visited Valencia last weekend; they had a single shot that arrived in injury time, a pathetic display. They earned a point at the Mestalla. I’m expecting them to pursue a similar game plan.
The hosts have several absentees. Alaba, Courtois and Militao will not feature here. Jude Bellingham is a doubt. Antonio Rudiger may play a part. Dani Carvajal saw red in their draw at Rayo on Sunday afternoon. Despite missing key defenders, Real Madrid have conceded just three in their last six in all competitions.
I’m envisaging a clash that will be relatively low-scoring. Sevilla will take some confidence from their point in Valencia. It’s now back-to-back clean sheets for the visitors. They beat Atletico 1-0 the previous weekend. I expect they set up in a 3-5-2 with the same core featuring again.
Only two of Real Madrid’s previous eight league matches have seen four or more goals. Carlo’s side have kept a clean sheet in five of 12 here. Quique Sanchez Flores has taken charge of nine La Liga matches this term. Only two of those have witnessed four strikes or greater.
There aren’t many players as exciting as Vinicius JR. Real Madrid’s Brazilian star is enjoying another fine campaign with Los Blancos. The 23-year-old has started 15 matches in La Liga this term. He has scored on seven occasions. Five of those seven strikes have arrived at this venue. Vini is a standout player in attack for the hosts. I expect him to have joy against a lacklustre Sevilla side.
Real Madrid’s number seven loves a shot. He’s averaging 3.33 per 90 across the current campaign, and it’s 1.44 shots on target per 90 for our man. In Vini’s six starts at the Bernabeu this season, he’s had 19 shots. The Brazilian has had multiple shots in every outing.
I struggle to see how Sevilla shut out their opponents. They’re abysmal away from home. Quique Sanchez Flores’ men have managed just three clean sheets in 12 away days. Ancelotti’s men are a force. Vinicius JR has been excellent in 2024 and looks a great bet.
Vini’s last goal against Sevilla arrived in late 2021. He is due a goal. I expect it to come in this encounter.
Brahim Diaz has impressed in recent weeks. The Spaniard does not always start due to the world-class quality amongst the Real Madrid squad. Diaz scored the opener in the Madrid derby. He scored an emphatic goal in their Champions League triumph over RB Leipzig.
There is no guarantee that Diaz will start here. He will believe he has done enough to get himself in the starting XI. The number 21 has averaged 2.20 per 90 this season in the league and 0.99 shots on target per 90. Diaz will be full of confidence due to his recent performances.
Real Madrid have scored just ten goals in the opening 45 minutes of their 12 home matches. It’s a different statistic when it comes to the second half. The league leaders have found the back of the net 20 times after the interval. Carlo Ancelotti must be saying something right in the dressing room.
Atletico and Rayo Vallecano have prevented the home side from scoring after the break this term. Barcelona, Atletico and Girona have all netted in the latter stages when hosting Sevilla. I expect Real’s quality to shine as the contest progresses.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, February 20th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Real Madrid’s injury list is overwhelming. Rudiger and Jude Bellingham are set to miss this clash. Militao, Alaba and Courtois won’t feature whatsoever.
Camavinga and Carvajal will miss this clash due to suspension.
Sevilla’s absentee numbers are just as lengthy. Lamela, Ocampos, Marcao, Diaz, Gudelj, Nianzou and Mir are unlikely to play a part. Lukebakio is also a doubt. He’s not played since early December.
Sevilla will be expected to start in a 3-5-2. Despite having a single shot against Valencia, they earned a point.
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Lunin; Vazqeuz, Tchouameni, Fernandez, Garcia, Valverde, Modric, Kroos, Diaz, Vinicius; Rodrygo
Sevilla possible starting lineup:
Nyland; Bade, Ramos, Salas, Navas, Acuna, Sow, Soumare, Torres, En-Nesyri; Romero
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the La Liga standings ahead of the Real Madrid vs Sevilla, currently 1st vs 15th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27.4 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 79.8 | 28.5 | 51.3 | 89.2 |
2 | Girona | 38 | 23.5 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 78.0 | 50.0 | 28.0 | 78.5 |
3 | Barcelona | 38 | 23.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 79.6 | 49.8 | 29.8 | 78.1 |
4 | Atl. Madrid | 38 | 22.1 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 70.4 | 43.5 | 26.9 | 72.3 |
5 | Ath Bilbao | 38 | 20.4 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 66.9 | 36.2 | 30.7 | 71.5 |
6 | Sociedad | 38 | 14.9 | 13.6 | 9.5 | 50.7 | 37.6 | 13.1 | 58.4 |
7 | Betis | 38 | 14.2 | 14.4 | 9.4 | 47.2 | 44.8 | 2.5 | 57.0 |
8 | Valencia | 38 | 14.5 | 8.8 | 14.6 | 44.0 | 46.6 | -2.6 | 52.4 |
9 | Getafe | 38 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 49.9 | 53.6 | -3.7 | 50.7 |
10 | Las Palmas | 38 | 13.4 | 8.6 | 16.0 | 37.9 | 40.8 | -3.0 | 48.9 |
11 | Alaves | 38 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 15.9 | 42.7 | 48.3 | -5.6 | 47.2 |
12 | Osasuna | 38 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 17.0 | 43.8 | 56.3 | -12.5 | 46.1 |
13 | Vallecano | 38 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 15.2 | 38.2 | 49.4 | -11.2 | 43.2 |
14 | Villarreal | 38 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 17.6 | 54.7 | 72.2 | -17.6 | 41.3 |
15 | Mallorca | 38 | 8.6 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 37.0 | 49.6 | -12.7 | 40.5 |
16 | Celta | 38 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 17.9 | 45.8 | 56.4 | -10.6 | 39.9 |
17 | Sevilla | 38 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 17.4 | 47.2 | 59.6 | -12.4 | 39.2 |
18 | Granada | 38 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 21.2 | 42.8 | 69.4 | -26.7 | 29.4 |
19 | Cadiz | 38 | 4.6 | 13.4 | 20.1 | 25.3 | 57.0 | -31.7 | 27.1 |
20 | Almeria | 38 | 4.8 | 10.2 | 23.0 | 41.9 | 73.7 | -31.9 | 24.6 |
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