football | Wednesday, July 27, 2022 11:56 AM (Revised at: Monday, August 1, 2022 12:53 AM)

Sam Ingram’s Best Outright Bets 2022/23 - Value Bets from Three Tiers in England

Sam Ingram

The return of football’s biggest and best leagues is fast approaching. As the curtain begins to rise on another instalment of our beautiful game, there’s a handful of ante-post markets that may tempt you into force your hand. Playoffs, a dismal relegation showing, and a Premier League-proven goalscorer is set to be rampant in the Championship – let’s get to it.

In this article:

Burnley Bet Tip
Championship Top Scorer Outright Bet Tip
Bournemouth Outright Bet Tip
Derby County Outright Bet Tip

All odds quoted are the best odds available as at 11:00 on 27th July 2022. Odds may now differ.

Vincent and Ko. to Push Burnley up the Table

At 2.50 to make the playoffs, Burnley are the least fancied side by the bookmakers out of the expected top six next season.

Vincent Kompany will begin the new season on Friday with no Championship experience. Not only that, but with the Belgian’s say-so, Burnley navigated the summer period and released experienced pros such as Dale Stephens, Phil Bardsley, and Erik Pieters. In addition, James Tarkowski vacated to Everton, Ben Mee will now call Brentford his new home, and Nick Pope and Nathan Collins headed to Newcastle and Wolves, respectively.

It’s a summer of drastic change, leaving a void of experience in the dressing room. However, the players that are left behind are no slouches. Ashley Barnes should have a big say in Burnley’s trajectory this season – the forward has played 199 Premier League games alongside 150 in the Championship. Dropping back into midfield, Jack Cork boasts 300 Premier League appearances to back up his 183-game total in the second tier. Charlie Taylor is another who has chalked up over 100 (132) Premier League displays whilst sitting just seven appearances from reaching a century in the Championship. And that’s without touching on the likes of Jay Rodriguez, Matěj Vydra, Ashley Westwood, Conor Roberts, and Matthew Lowton.

Although the outgoings will naturally make the headlines, Turf Moor is crammed with quality and abundant experience. Accompany those willing to stay put and put up a fight in the Championship with Scott Twine, Josh Cullen, Samuel Bastien, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, CJ Egan-Riley, Luke McNally, and Arijanet Muric – that’s a squad ready for a charge on the upper echelons of the division.

Swansea, Coventry, Stoke and QPR are the bookmaker’s ‘next best’, the four expected to be on the peripheries, ready to pounce on any poor form or drop off in performance. However, if this Burnley squad lives up to its billing, it’s slim picking for the best of the rest.

Selection: Burnley 6 Six Finish in Championship (TRACKED TIP)
Odds: 2.50
Provider: Boylesports
Stakes: 10/10

Vincent and Co. to Push Burnley up the Table

One of the biggest shocks of the Championship’s transfer market so far has been the lack of movement of key figures in Watford’s camp. Ismaila Sarr looks poised to stay at Vicarage Road whilst Emmanuel Dennis could follow suit.

Watford’s resolve will likely be tested with one month of the transfer window remaining and plenty of Premier League sides far from content with their summer dealings. However, if those gunning for a striker overlook Dennis, The Hornets will be handed a seismic boost.

Dennis notched up ten goals and six assists in an impressive debut Premier League campaign. Considering such output came with a Watford side finishing 19th with the second-fewest goals in the league, Dennis’ craft proved pretty impressive.

If Dennis is to leave Watford, stakes will be returned. If he is to stay terrorizing Championship defences, it should be one enthralling ante-post journey.

In what was his most prolific goal-scoring season, reaching double figures for the first time, we’ll need to see both lethality and consistency in equal measure to get him near the individual accolade. Admittedly, it won’t be a walk in the park, but there was enough on show last season to suggest Dennis has it in him to make a mockery of the Championship’s scoring charts.

As an Each Way punt at ¼ of the odds, Dennis is a risk worth investing.

Selection: Emmanuel Dennis Top Scorer in Championship (Each Way 4 places) (TRACKED TIP)
Odds: 26.00
Provider: bet365
Stakes: 10/10

Bournemouth to Struggle on Premier League Return

The perils of Premier League football are unforgiving, rarely taking kindly to an unprepared Championship arrival.

As Nottingham Forest’s head coach, Steve Cooper instantly gives the Trees a leg up in hopes of survival. Jesse Lingard’s signing shows severe intent, as do the acquisitions of Neco Williams and Taiwo Awoniyi, both arriving at a shade under £20m in a £73.58m recruitment drive.

When questioned about Forest’s foray into the transfer market, Scott Parker recently admitted, “us as a football club are not in a position to be able to do that, really. Them and us, it’s chalk and cheese.” It’s a statement that will fail to fill The Vitality with much confidence ahead of the new season.

Cherries supporters are yet to see the purse strings loosened on the South Coast. Bournemouth’s unused chequebook is a concern ahead of a highly competitive Premier League campaign.

The Cottagers will give us a run for our money here. Alexsandar Mitrovic faces the same damning questions as Dominic Solanke this season. Can either frontman fire their side to safety? Is Fulham’s marksman capable of translating his record-breaking 43 Championship goals to England’s top division?

The jury is out on Solanke at this level. It has to be. The signings of only Joe Rothwell and Ryan Fredericks by Parker’s side after their 88-point Championship season means there are doubts over squad depth to compete at this level, too. Despite all of that, the Cherries look the best value to finish this season just two places higher than last campaign.

Selection: Bournemouth to Finish Bottom in Premier League (TRACKED TIP)
Odds: 3.25
Provider: SkyBet
Stakes: 10/10

New-Look Derby to Bounce Back

In just over a couple of weeks, The Rams have been backed in from 2.25 to odds-on across the majority of bookmakers to finish in the top six in League One. The shift in price comes after the flurry of activity following David Clowes’ successful takeover.

Fortunately, we could take advantage of the 2.25 price with this selection featuring in an EFL-inspired ante-post article. Nevertheless, the 1.91 on William Hill still represents value.

The longer the summer drags on, the more confident Rams supporters are of keeping hold of the likes of Bird, Bielik and Byrne. The former, Max Bird, has just been announced as Derby’s new vice-captain. It’s an announcement which may put any concerns to bed over his departure, albeit stranger things have happened in the transfer window.

Like Burnley, Derby lost key squad members in the summer. A hectic, prolonged takeover alongside a relegation to League One will do that. Yet, the incomings to Pride Park screams class and experience – the type of know-how which would be well equipped to take on sides in the Championship, not League One.

Conor Hourihane, James Collins, James Chester, David McGoldrick, Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, Korey Smith, and Tom Barkhuizen are some of the names through the door. If that doesn’t frighten the life out of those occupying the League One dugouts this season, I’m not sure what will.