football | Wednesday, July 27, 2022 8:46 AM (Revised at: Monday, August 1, 2022 12:52 AM)

Scott Thornton's Best Outright Bets 2022/23 - Value Bets from Spain, Germany, England

Scott Thornton

The anticipation is building as Europe’s major leagues are set to return for the 2022/23 season. Lots have clubs have been busy in the summer transfer window and the changing landscape of football can give us the opportunity to capitalise ahead of the new season.

I’ve scoured through the markets available and selected some of the prices that I feel are most generous ahead of the new season.

In this article:

Mane at Bayern Munich Outright Bet Tip
Newcastle Outright Bet Tip
Leeds Outright Bet Tip
Lewandowski at Barcelona Outright Bet Tip

All odds quoted are the best odds available as at 16:00 on 26th July 2022. Odds may now differ.

Mane To Hit The Ground Running in Germany

Bayern Munich wrapped up the signing of Sadio Mane early on in the summer transfer window, but even then there was a feeling that the former Liverpool starlet would be tasked with replacing the goals scored by Robert Lewandowski.

The FIFA Best winner departed for the Camp Nou which should free up Mane to occupy a more central position than the one he did for Liverpool. The Senegalese forward was primarily used out wide by Jurgen Klopp, so being the focal point of the attack should see an improvement to his already impressive goal tally.
Surprisingly, Mane only reached the 20 league goal mark once for Liverpool. That was back in the 2018/19 season when he scored 22 goals for the Reds. At the age of 30, Mane is far from past his best and there is every reason to believe he will set the Bundesliga alight this season.

Bundesliga teams are known for their high line, and pace to get in behind is vital in this league. Mane possesses this in abundance and it should see him wreak havoc amongst the Bundesliga defences. Last season, the Premier League averaged 2.82 goals per game, a decent margin lower than the 3.12 goals per game in the Bundesliga.

A useful comparison to make is Timo Werner, who made the switch in the other direction when he traded the Bundesliga for the Premier League. Werner has struggled since moving to Chelsea, scoring just 10 league goals across his two seasons at the club. However, the forward found the net 28 times in the league during his final season for RB Leipzig.

Finally, Mane scored his first goal for the club (in a pre-season friendly) from the penalty spot, indicating that he will be given the opportunity to increase his goal numbers by fulfilling penalty duties.

bet365 have Mane to score 20 or more priced at 2.37. They have also priced 25 and 30 league goals, and I wouldn’t put anyone off having a punt on the bigger lines as well as the main bet.

Selection: Sadio Mane To Score 20 Or More Bundesliga Goals (TRACKED TIP)
Odds: 2.37
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 9/10

The Magpies Soaring High

Newcastle United are a club on the up. The nightmare of Mike Ashley seems like a distant memory and the fans are looking forward to their first full season under Eddie Howe. The former Bournemouth manager took over with the team looking destined for the drop, but a remarkable turnaround saw them finish the season in 11th.

The season started miserably under Steve Bruce. Newcastle failed to win any of their opening nine games and collected just three points. Talk of the looming takeover gave the fans hope, but there was a general feeling that any deal would be done too late to save the club from the drop.

Howe was appointed in early November and he set about changing the team’s fortunes. However, the remarkable run of form began at the turn of the year. The club were lavish spenders in the January transfer window; acquiring Chris Wood, Matt Targett, Kieran Trippier and Bruno Guimaraes.

In 2022, Newcastle have played 19 league matches and earned 38 points from those matches. In fact, in this calendar year, Newcastle have statically been the fourth-best team in the league. Only Manchester City, Liverpool and Spurs have collected more points than them over this period.

While it is far too simplistic to calculate the number of points a team will win this way, Newcastle would have finished with a whopping 76 points if their first half of the season had been identical to their second half.

bet365 have set the points line for the Magpies at over 56 points, and I’m more than happy to back this odds of 2.40 given the direction things are heading in on Tyneside.

Newcastle have brought in Sven Botman and Nick Pope this summer. While some fans were expecting more improvements, there is still plenty of time for them to make further acquisitions. Any new singings will join a squad of players seemingly inspired by their manager, and the sky is truly the limit for the club in the long run.

For now, I’m happy to back Newcastle to have a successful season here. They were eight points shy of the required mark last season, but they won’t spend the first few months of the season as Premier League strugglers, and this should make all the difference.

Selection: Newcastle Over 56 Points (TRACKED TIP)
Odds: 2.40
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 8/10

Leeds On The Marsch

Leeds avoided relegation by the skin of their teeth last season and they will have been thanking their lucky stars throughout the summer. Jesse Marsch was handed a tough job when he was asked to replace the popular Marcelo Bielsa, but the American galvanised the squad and was able to help the team remain in England’s top flight.

It has been a summer of upheaval at Leeds United. They have lost key players in Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips, but there is cause for optimism around Elland Road. The club received large transfer fees for their major assets, and the board have committed to investing heavily in the players that the manager wants.

Marsch has brought in just short of £100m worth of players, and there are plenty of rumours that more could be on the way. Luis Sinisterra and Brenden Aaronson will help to form a new-look attack, and Kalvin Phillips has been replaced by Marc Roca from Bayern. Wholesale changes in the playing department should help the manager stamp his authority on the team.

Leeds’ first season in the Premier League left many marvelling at their style of play and how they approached every game, regardless of the opponent. Leeds finished that season with 59 points, but the reluctance to adapt their game eventually cost Bielsa his job last season.

Marsch has his playing principles, but he is more pragmatic in his execution. He arrived midseason but was successful in solidifying Leeds’ defence. After his arrival, the team conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game. Under Bielsa, the team were conceding 2.3 goals per game.

bet365 have priced Leeds at 1.83 to hit 40 points this season. 40 points is often considered the benchmark for avoiding relegation, and Leeds showed in their first season that they are more than capable of climbing into midtable.

Selection: Leeds Over 39 Points (TRACKED TIP)
Odds: 1.83
Bookmaker: bet365
Stakes: 7/10

Nou Surroundings, Same Lewandowski

Robert Lewandowski has been the most lethal marksman in football for a couple of seasons now. He is extremely unfortunate not to have a Balon D’or to show for his efforts. The Pole won everything there was to win in Germany.

He appears keen to help Barcelona return to their former glory this season. The forward pushed for his move very publicly throughout the summer, and it seems unlikely he will waste his opportunity to shine in Spain now that he finally has his move.

There is no doubt about where Lewandowski will fit in. He is going to be the main goal threat in Xavi’s side and he will be surrounded by creative players to aid him in his quest to find the net. The Catalan giants identified a clinical scorer as an area to improve in after Memphis Depay was their only play to hit double figures last season.

In his last three Bundesliga seasons, Lewandowski has scored 35, 41 and 34 times and he is showing no signs of slowing down. Also, the Bundesliga season consists of just 34 matches, so he will have an extra four matches to add to his goal tally in La Liga.
Despite the chaos off the pitch regarding the financial side of the club, things are looking promising for Barcelona on the pitch. The team have played well in pre-season and secured a 1-0 victory over Real Madrid to boost confidence.

Lewandowski will be tasked with filling the goalscoring void left by Lionel Messi when he departed late last summer. Messi scored 30 league goals in his final season in Spain, and Lewandowski will have his sights set on reaching that target.

We can get odds of 1.90 for Lewandowski to score 25 or more league goals this season, and I’m confident that the forward will adapt to his new surroundings quickly and pick up from where he left off in Germany.